winterwarlock Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Dont mean in Philly bit further back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yeah the HRRR clearly showed this band hitting the philly area and EPA pretty hard before weakening as it works its way into NJ. More snow will be coming through to follow, and although EPA will see higher totals, we will still get our few inches or so in the NYC area. Again, I still think it's a 2-4" snowfall for the NYC/NENJ area with the 5-6" amounts further S and W. The forecasts of 4-8" for our areas are overdone (just in my opinion), unless we're factoring in EPA/WNJ. If it looks like a 3 or 4 inch snowfall, no reason to spread it out into the 4-8" range (because if I doubt we'd ever call for 1-3" if we were expecting 4-6") . Upton's call looks perfectly fine for what is expected and modeled. Upton is going to bust on this, no way does anyone anywhere see only 1 inch from this, I'm a heck of a lot more worried someone may see 8 or 10 inches than 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Upton is going to bust on this, no way does anyone anywhere see only 1 inch from this, I'm a heck of a lot more worried someone may see 8 or 10 inches than 1. I like 4-5" avg for NYC. Low end 3" but that's prob nw dry slot and eastern LI. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The dry slots could easily fill in between now and then Dry slot is expanding....becoming massive actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The surface low moving into the lakes should fizzle completely around 0z Sunday. Dynamically I don't see any reason for it to survive. My thinking is this will look much more like an arctic frontal passage, than a SWFE. Perhaps more accurately, it's a hybrid of sorts as it transitions from the latter to the former. I can see a weak surface low wanting to form east of the cape, or near down east Maine...I'm thinking one of these two areas should take precedence. The implications of this on coastal areas is potentially significant as the wind direction will have more of a westerly component (over land). There is significant risk, in my opinion, that coastal areas surprise to the upside in terms of frozen precip. Upton update at about 10 something this morning THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE HOW FAST DOES A LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE FROM AROUND 875-975 HPA MOVE IN AND DEGREE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR GETTING LOCKED IN AT THE SURFACE AS COASTAL FRONT/WARM FRONT APPROACH TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND SBU/ALY WRF INDICATING A WEAK MESO- LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF LI...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE TRAPPING OF SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR DOWN INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LI AND NYC METRO AND POINTS N AND W TONIGHT. IF TRENDS HOLDS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE...A BIT MORE FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUM MAY BE NEEDED AND FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro doesn't get the surface frz line north of 78 now for entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 and another thing. How much virga should a human being have to take. It's now 2 hours of virga in rockland county, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wasn't much Virga here. 20 minutes tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 and another thing. How much virga should a human being have to take. It's now 2 hours of virga in rockland county, I'm snowing up here at West Point... Odd rockland is still virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wasn't much Virga here. 20 minutes tops. Must be nice!. That dry slot better stay to the west. It's massive and is going to be pretty close to my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro doesn't get the surface frz line north of 78 now for entire event925mb temps torch. Looking like NAM with ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Upton is going to bust on this, no way does anyone anywhere see only 1 inch from this, I'm a heck of a lot more worried someone may see 8 or 10 inches than 1. I trust your take. You have been consistent in trumpting the wall of snow idea & looking at radar I can see it coming. I agree no way we just see 2-3 inches. The nowcast begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 925mb temps torch. Looking like NAM with ZR. Wasn't referring to snow was more referring to the ice threat later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks like the radar is trying to fill in the dry slot across western PA. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Dry slot is expanding....becoming massive actually Ehhh...look a bit closer. Western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 hmmm. Mt Holly is going 6-8 in my area. Large area too in the 6-8 band. Yes I think my holly knows a bit more than most. they are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/700mb/700mb_sf.gif?1424543213274 http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/2km/NY/current/NY.rad.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 No way anybody on LI (Including NYC) sees close to 8". I think Uptons call is dead on with maybe a few areas (North shore mostly) seeing perhaps 5". Not sold on an extended period of changeover to rain either. May need to eat crow but I'm sticking with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Why are people worried? Everybody is going to get a good thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That dry slot is well east of central PA, and into eastern PA now....and unless it fills in will be very close to going over rockland county. ( and all counties to the west and nw). Regardless though....Im now two hours and 10 mins into virga. Radar has the snow expanded up to Albany already. This is like a bad dream. Right. My point was that it looked to be trying to fill in from western PA eastward. Doesn't look like its going to fully get there. Someones gonna get dry slotted big time. Looks to be N-NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 No way anybody on LI (Including NYC) sees close to 8". I think Uptons call is dead on with maybe a few areas (North shore mostly) seeing perhaps 5". Not sold on an extended period of changeover to rain either. May need to eat crow but I'm sticking with it. 3-6 seems like a good call for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Radar looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Bergen County 1:30pm light to moderate snow is underway.... http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/DIX/HHC/DIX.HHC.20150221.1824.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We might. But between the length of virga I just had, and the potential of that dry slot getting here....I believe their is cause to worryRockland looks to get dry slotted based on the current radar, this is disturbing to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Why are people worried? Everybody is going to get a good thumping. Why are people worried? Everybody is going to get a good thumping. I agree. We have the trends on our side as the event unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Light to moderate snow here in Marlboro,NJ Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Flurries Easton CT (coastal CT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Right. My point was that it looked to be trying to fill in from western PA eastward. Doesn't look like its going to fully get there. Someones gonna get dry slotted big time. Looks to be N-NW NJ. Sorry. I misunderstood your previous post, and thought you were saying the dry slot was all the way in western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Correct. It's going to be a close call.....and after 2.5 hours of virga, if it does ( if) we are going to get very little snow. No 2 ways about it KB imby cryin is not allowed here... you will do well sir...trust me go outside for a walk by the time you get back you into snow http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-west_goes-east.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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