Wannabehippie Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Who said NYC didn't crack 4"? Last report was from 7:00am. LGA and JFK are also 7:00am reports. I got 3.5 in Astoria, but I only measured one spot as I was in a rush to get to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 this is much more amped than 12z, really taps the gulf, low is positioned nearly 75 miles south from 12z through 06z sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The GFS phases so early that the SLP torches the mid levels from Kentucky . 850s torch to ALBANY if that happens . We will see if it yields to the pattern as we get closer . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 bad ice storm for parts of northern Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 i think the cold weather plus all the extra snow cover even in the south now will only make the boundary move up so much. I think it settles south of us because of that! Unless we can have a very strong low that will break the boundary and cut!I love your enthusiasm, but this isn't analysis brother. If you're saying the snow cover and cold shifts the baroclynic zone to match the temperatures gradient, perhaps by some stretch it could be analysis. No disrespect intended, but your post is wish casting brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The GFS phases so early that the SLP torches the mid levels from Kentucky . 850s torch to ALBANY if that happens . We will see if it yields to the pattern as we get closer . If that's correct it rains all the way into new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The GFS phases so early that the SLP torches the mid levels from Kentucky . 850s torch to ALBANY if that happens . We will see if it yields to the pattern as we get closer . This is like dejavu all over again from last week's initial progs of last nights storm which we se where it wound up. Obviously not identical but suspect a snow / mix may be the ultimate progression for the NYC/NJ area. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 If that's correct it rains all the way into new england SLP just do not like to run right up the apps . They come up west or east . If this get E of the Miss it should run to the coast now it could hug it which would mean a good front end dump , before rain for the coast and bigger interior snows . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The GFS phases so early that the SLP torches the mid levels from Kentucky . 850s torch to ALBANY if that happens . We will see if it yields to the pattern as we get closer . We need this not to phase like this, or this storm will cut. A negative EPO can help, and with the AO and NAO raging positive, the storm will likely be progressive, but we need the storm to stay sheared out or it will have a good shot at cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GFS absolutely pours rain past Albany, I don't see this happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 extreme northwestern NY down through the Ohio valley see heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We need this not to phase like this, or this storm will cut. A negative EPO can help, and with the AO and NAO raging positive, the storm will likely be progressive, but we need the storm to stay sheared out or it will have a good shot at cutting.I should also note, I'm not buying this solution attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We need this not to phase like this, or this storm will cut. A negative EPO can help, and with the AO and NAO raging positive, the storm will likely be progressive, but we need the storm to stay sheared out or it will have a good shot at cutting. Agree , need a nice open wave to belly under and then turn up. It phased so early it torched the mid levels from 700 miles away .That was impressive . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 SLP just do not like to run right up the apps . They come up west or east . If this get E of the Miss it should run to the coast now it could hug it which would mean a good front end dump , before rain for the coast and bigger interior snows . Lows almost never go up the spine of the Appalachian chain, you're right, it's either west or east of it. They don't like mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I love your enthusiasm, but this isn't analysis brother. If you're saying the snow cover and cold shifts the baroclynic zone to match the temperatures gradient, perhaps by some stretch it could be analysis. No disrespect intended, but your post is wish casting brother. Most of his posts are wishcasting, as are many of the posts of the rest of the folks around here. It's harmless, except for the fact that it clutters up the board. I know that I know a ton more about meteorological sciences (the fundamentals, thermo, transport, phys-chem, etc.) than 99% of the people here, but I don't know forecasting that well and neither do 99% of other non-pros, which is why I don't make too many forecast-type posts. I'd rather keep quiet and let the pros do those posts and let the pros and non-pros who know how to read model output really well (don't need to be a pro to do a decent job at that) report that output in the model threads. More people ought to sit back and read more and post less on these threads - post on the banter or obs threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 low practically passes right over NYC, western NY and points south of that get hammered, this storm has ALOT of potential, not a bad look this far out at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Agree , need a nice open wave to belly under and then turn up. It phased so early it torched the mid levels from 700 miles away .That was impressive .My concern is this : the AO looks to be trending pretty positive, and the NAO towards neutral. A strongly positive AO with a neutral NAO and a very amped s/w could lead to a strong cutter. I don't buy this solution right now, but it's plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We have nearly half a dozen computer models to analyze at least 4 times per day for the next 4 days. No computer model has been kicking the other model's butt this winter, every last bit of them, the Euro, the GFS, the NAM, etc. have all been very wrong. We're flying blind in dense fog here. I cannot think of a winter where the models have been more wrong. The one thing I can say is that lows haven't been cutting lately. I think the last time was Christmas? Nothing has shifted so drastically that would give this weekend the ability to cut. So any solution that shows a cutter is most likely, not definitely, but most likely wrong. What's on the table? Us getting scraped while Boston gets hammered. Snow begets snow. Any solution at this point is just a wild guess. Guess the days of all of the computer models agreeing on one solution, alla the Superstorm of '93, are over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 My concern is this : the AO looks to be trending pretty positive, and the NAO towards neutral. A strongly positive AO with a neutral NAO and a very amped s/w could lead to a strong cutter. I don't buy this solution right now, but it's plausible.The things I always look for when thinking major I-95 snowstorm besides obviously a deep dome of cold air, Atlantic/Arctic side: -NAO, -AO, 50/50 low to setup confluence/CAD, strong high or banana high up in Canada that's anchored with the 50/50, Pacific side: +PNA, -EPO, MJO in a favorable phase (not a must but it's extra security). If any of those things are lacking, I become very suspect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 take a look at all the panels here http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml "One of these things....is not like the others" Oscar the Grouch maybe..... one of these things doesn't belong? even so a 25 deg min start is the warmest morning prog ........ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/minloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Siberian Express Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It is looking like a serious rain storm with a little snow out front. The 50/50 low is totally gone, unlike the case with today's storm. And a good chance for a phase-up there is good chance the low will go west. My main concern is for the Boston area if it rains 2+ inches hundreds if not thousands of roofs may collapse we do not need this. I hope the models are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It is looking like a serious rain storm with a little snow out front. The 50/50 low is totally gone, unlike the case with today's storm. And a good chance for a phase-up there is good chance the low will go west. My main concern is for the Boston area if it rains 2+ inches hundreds if not thousands of roofs may collapse we do not need this. I hope the models are wrong.Yea, correct me if I'm wrong, but without the 50/50 low, nothing to hold the high to the north in place, no -ao, no -nao, high scoots east, return flow. Plus the SE ridge is allowed to rear its ugly head with no -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Someone mentioned 1/17/94 a week ago for this past storm, I said there was not much similarity for that one...very different this time, its an extremely similar setup to this, as a matter of fact the analog is showing up everywhere on CIPS, the SE, Midwest, Lakes, Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We have nearly half a dozen computer models to analyze at least 4 times per day for the next 4 days. No computer model has been kicking the other model's butt this winter, every last bit of them, the Euro, the GFS, the NAM, etc. have all been very wrong. We're flying blind in dense fog here. I cannot think of a winter where the models have been more wrong. The one thing I can say is that lows haven't been cutting lately. I think the last time was Christmas? Nothing has shifted so drastically that would give this weekend the ability to cut. So any solution that shows a cutter is most likely, not definitely, but most likely wrong. What's on the table? Us getting scraped while Boston gets hammered. Snow begets snow. Any solution at this point is just a wild guess. Guess the days of all of the computer models agreeing on one solution, alla the Superstorm of '93, are over. Last true cutter was 1/3/15....locally I had about 2 inches of snow before a flip to moderate/heavy rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Someone mentioned 1/17/94 a week ago for this past storm, I said there was not much similarity for that one...very different this time, its an extremely similar setup to this, as a matter of fact the analog is showing up everywhere on CIPS, the SE, Midwest, Lakes, Northeast. Remind me what that one did? Snow to ice/rain (depending on locale-CT had alot of rain in the middle, but areas further west had more ice) then flash freeze if I remember it correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This thread should just be called possible event 2/21-2/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Remind me what that one did? Snow to ice/rain (depending on locale-CT had alot of rain in the middle, but areas further west had more ice) then flash freeze if I remember it correctly?If it was that winter, most likely a snow to severe sleet and freezing rain event. There were a ton of ice storms that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It is looking like a serious rain storm with a little snow out front. The 50/50 low is totally gone, unlike the case with today's storm. And a good chance for a phase-up there is good chance the low will go west. My main concern is for the Boston area if it rains 2+ inches hundreds if not thousands of roofs may collapse we do not need this. I hope the models are wrong. I can't really comment on whether it'll be a cutter, but I can absolutely guarantee you've captured the biggest risk associated with a major rainstorm for Boston and other parts of New England. While I'm sure some of their snow has melted/sublimated, it's mostly fallen in the last month and it's remained very cold so if we assume 75% of the 8 feet of snow, assuming a 12:1 ratio, are left, that would be 6" of liquid equivalent in the snowpack. I would assume most or all of a 2" rainfall would be absorbed into the snowpack, making it 8" of LE and adding 33% more weight to what is there now. Could be just enough to collaps a ton of roofs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gfs is going to be a big time cutter this run...bad news for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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