hazwoper Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Why is everyone hugging the nam...serious question. .why is the gfs and euro being tossed Simple: WE ARE EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING A SLICE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT 12Z SOUNDINGS VS MODEL PROJECTIONS, IF ANYTHING MODELING ERRORS ARE TOO WARM. THE NAM VERIFIED THE BEST WITH THE QPF PROJECTIONS THRU 12Z AND ITS WETTEST, DRIEST ECMWF VERIFIED THE POOREST. LATEST NAM/RAP/HRRR ARE EITHER SNOWIER OR SLOWER TO BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. SO IN THAT NEW WARNING SLICE, IF WE ARE TOO HEAVY WITH THE SNOW, CHANCES ARE WE MAY BE TOO LIGHT ON THE ICE. THIS ALSO BRINGS THE GRADIENT UNCERTAINTY TO THE I295 CORRIDOR IN SWRN NJ. WE WILL SEE WHAT ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS SHOW BEFORE DECIDING IF A FURTHER SEWD EXPANSION IS NEEDED THERE TOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think anyone outside of southern Queens and LI may never change to rain, freezing rain may be a big problem, the RGEM shows no sleet just FZRA in those spots. It does say LGA and vicinity goes to rain at 07z but barely and the RGEM has been slightly warm on ptypes recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Hey guys - my flight leaves from JFK at midnight - do you think a bulk of the storm will be over by then? It looks like it will start sooner than I thought. Snow may be ok, but the freezing rain worries me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think anyone outside of southern Queens and LI may never change to rain, freezing rain may be a big problem, the RGEM shows no sleet just FZRA in those spots. It does say LGA and vicinity goes to rain at 07z but barely and the RGEM has been slightly warm on ptypes recently HRRR Those 925s better be right. 5z KNYC 850s -1 BL 33 DP 28 . If the 925`s are 0 - and not plus 1 . That is still S RGEM has 13 mm or .511 S at the park and only 2.5 mm of rain . So after 5 to 6 its drizzle. 2 days ago it was 45 and an inch of rain . If it`s 4, 5 or 6 its a win . JP WNJ into Westchester where 6 to 8 should fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wall of white moving east into the area shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Have been thinking the same this morning based off the new 12z models.. 32f line is not going to make it that far inland until after 80-90% of the precip is done. Thankfully the snow during the day should help reduce any major issues but yes I think freezing rain is a concern for some. I think anyone outside of southern Queens and LI may never change to rain, freezing rain may be a big problem, the RGEM shows no sleet just FZRA in those spots. It does say LGA and vicinity goes to rain at 07z but barely and the RGEM has been slightly warm on ptypes recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Why is everyone hugging the nam...serious question. .why is the gfs and euro being tossed I don't think anyone was hugging the NAM rather just analyzing the model data it was showing for the boundary layer because that information was most readily available while waiting for other models to come in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 One thing is for sure the HRRR isn't too enthused with any decent snow rates here til 23z or so but it has sucked recently, the RAP which has been better is more aggressive Id go RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nice band taking shape over eastern PA... Just talked to a friend in the poconos however and he said just some stray flurries so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Classic wall of white I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The globals have been trending towards the mesos, for about 48 hrs now. That's why the NAM and RGEM are being favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Id go RAP . Pretty obv on that map that middlessex is Jp on that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12Z RAP changes NYC over to liquid (Freezing Rain) at 04Z Station ID: KNYC Lat: 40.78 Long: -73.96 Elevation: 47.0 RAP Model Run: 12Z FEB 21, 2015 Forecast Hours: 0hr 1hr 2hr 3hr 4hr 5hr 6hr 7hr 8hr 9hr 10hr 11hr 12hr 13hr 14hr 15hr 16hr 17hr 18hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1032.5 1033.0 1032.3 1031.4 1031.5 1030.4 1029.3 1027.1 1026.6 1026.1 1025.1 1024.1 1023.5 1023.4 1023.7 1022.5 1021.8 1020.8 1020.8 Mean SLP (mb): 1032.9 1033.0 1032.7 1031.5 1031.5 1030.8 1029.7 1027.7 1026.8 1026.2 1025.5 1024.2 1023.9 1023.5 1023.9 1022.9 1022.4 1021.3 1021.1 2m agl Tmp (F): 0.6 7.3 17.4 20.4 22.7 24.0 24.9 26.4 26.5 28.0 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.7 30.8 31.5 31.1 31.0 2m AGL Dewpt(F): -8.7 0.3 10.6 12.4 14.6 16.9 18.8 22.9 23.7 26.2 26.9 27.1 27.5 28.0 28.6 29.9 30.8 30.6 30.6 2m agl RH (%): 65 73 74 71 71 74 77 86 89 93 93 93 94 95 96 96 97 98 98 10m agl W Dir: 357 155 187 185 190 190 193 178 182 180 179 179 182 191 198 205 199 55 2 10m agl Spd(kt): 1 3 6 7 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 4 3 2 1hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.20 0.25 0.31 0.37 0.43 0.50 1hr CnvPrp (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Precip H20 (in): 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 Lifted Index(C): 36.0 34.8 30.5 29.1 28.4 27.6 27.2 26.2 26.3 26.1 25.5 24.9 25.1 25.1 24.1 23.3 22.7 21.7 21.6 Sfc CAPE (J/kg): 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sfc CINH (J/kg): 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.5 -0.3 -0.8 0.3 -1.2 -0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.0 -0.1 0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.3 0.9 0-3km SRH(J/kg): 235.1 244.5 294.6 312.3 285.2 276.6 352.3 562.1 557.1 535.1 504.0 463.0 461.4 463.7 521.0 525.5 626.7 671.6 535.3 700mb VV(-ub/s): 2.4 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -1.8 0.2 7.7 6.3 3.4 5.2 2.0 4.2 4.7 6.3 5.9 10.3 8.7 5.1 5.8 Thk1000-500mb(m)5231.2 5248.7 5265.0 5279.6 5287.8 5299.5 5310.6 5321.4 5324.2 5336.8 5345.1 5352.5 5362.6 5368.8 5373.6 5378.8 5386.9 5395.8 5401.5 Thk1000-850mb(m)1242.6 1245.6 1247.3 1249.9 1252.7 1257.2 1256.7 1258.8 1262.2 1265.1 1270.6 1275.0 1282.1 1286.9 1292.1 1298.1 1304.0 1308.6 1310.5 Thk850-700mb(m):1486.7 1492.2 1499.0 1505.8 1504.8 1505.9 1512.2 1514.3 1517.7 1519.5 1521.4 1524.0 1528.2 1529.6 1528.8 1527.7 1528.9 1531.0 1531.3 Heat Index (F): 1 7 17 20 23 24 25 26 26 28 29 29 29 29 30 31 32 31 31 PType: SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW LIQUID LIQUID LIQUID 1000mb GPH (m): 254 256 254 246 247 241 234 219 212 209 203 193 190 188 191 183 179 172 170 1000mb Temp (C): -10.6 -10.4 -10.0 -9.1 -7.9 -6.9 -6.2 -5.6 -4.9 -3.8 -3.2 -3.0 -2.7 -2.5 -1.9 -1.1 -0.2 0.4 0.9 1000mb Dewpt(C): -20.5 -17.2 -15.2 -12.9 -11.6 -10.1 -8.7 -7.0 -5.9 -4.4 -3.6 -3.3 -3.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.1 -0.2 0.3 0.8 1000mb RH (%): 44 58 66 74 74 78 82 90 92 96 97 97 97 98 98 99 100 99 99 1000mb Dir: 199 191 187 186 191 191 193 184 186 185 186 187 189 197 205 209 210 209 222 1000mb Speed(kt): 13 14 15 13 15 16 16 15 17 19 22 23 23 23 23 23 19 15 14 975mb GPH (m): 447 449 448 440 443 438 431 417 412 408 403 393 391 389 392 385 382 375 374 975mb Temp (C): -11.8 -11.6 -11.2 -10.7 -9.7 -8.7 -8.0 -7.4 -6.3 -5.4 -4.6 -4.2 -3.9 -3.3 -2.4 -1.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 975mb Dewpt(C): -24.4 -21.5 -18.7 -15.7 -12.6 -11.1 -9.8 -8.4 -7.2 -5.9 -5.0 -4.6 -4.1 -3.5 -2.6 -1.2 0.2 0.7 1.0 975mb RH (%): 35 44 54 67 79 83 87 92 94 96 97 97 98 98 98 99 99 100 99 975mb Dir: 208 199 191 188 193 193 194 186 189 189 190 191 196 203 211 214 214 213 221 975mb Speed(kt): 15 16 19 17 18 19 20 20 22 26 29 31 32 33 36 37 33 30 27 950mb GPH (m): 646 648 647 640 643 638 633 619 614 611 607 597 596 594 599 593 591 584 583 950mb Temp (C): -12.8 -12.6 -12.3 -11.9 -11.2 -10.1 -9.4 -8.9 -7.8 -6.7 -6.0 -5.5 -4.7 -3.7 -2.3 -0.6 1.0 1.6 1.4 950mb Dewpt(C): -29.1 -25.1 -23.0 -20.4 -15.4 -14.0 -12.6 -10.4 -8.8 -7.4 -6.6 -6.1 -5.1 -4.1 -2.4 -0.8 1.0 1.6 1.4 950mb RH (%): 25 35 41 50 71 73 78 89 93 95 96 96 97 97 99 99 100 100 100 950mb Dir: 217 209 199 196 197 198 198 191 192 193 194 197 203 209 214 217 215 214 220 950mb Speed(kt): 19 20 22 21 22 24 25 25 28 32 34 37 38 41 46 48 45 42 39 925mb GPH (m): 849 851 850 843 847 844 838 825 821 819 815 806 806 805 811 806 805 799 799 925mb Temp (C): -13.0 -12.3 -12.3 -12.1 -11.6 -10.0 -9.8 -9.9 -9.0 -8.0 -7.3 -6.3 -5.5 -4.2 -2.4 -0.5 1.0 2.0 1.8 925mb Dewpt(C): -33.7 -29.7 -28.0 -25.5 -20.6 -20.6 -17.1 -11.8 -10.2 -9.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.1 -4.6 -2.6 -0.5 1.0 2.0 1.7 925mb RH (%): 16 23 26 33 48 42 55 86 91 93 95 95 95 97 98 100 100 100 99 925mb Dir: 218 213 208 206 207 207 206 196 196 196 198 204 209 216 219 220 217 215 220 925mb Speed(kt): 24 25 27 26 28 30 31 32 34 37 39 41 42 44 51 55 53 52 51 900mb GPH (m): 1058 1061 1060 1053 1057 1055 1050 1036 1033 1031 1028 1020 1021 1021 1028 1025 1026 1020 1020 900mb Temp (C): -11.7 -10.9 -10.7 -10.7 -10.4 -8.9 -9.9 -10.0 -10.0 -9.3 -8.1 -6.8 -5.2 -3.4 -2.2 -0.7 0.5 1.8 2.1 900mb Dewpt(C): -37.4 -33.5 -29.7 -25.7 -24.7 -26.0 -16.7 -11.7 -11.1 -10.3 -8.9 -7.4 -5.6 -3.6 -2.3 -0.7 0.4 1.6 2.0 900mb RH (%): 10 14 20 29 31 24 58 88 92 92 94 95 97 99 99 100 99 99 99 900mb Dir: 220 217 214 214 215 214 209 201 200 200 203 212 223 229 227 224 220 217 222 900mb Speed(kt): 28 29 31 31 33 35 36 42 42 43 43 43 45 49 55 59 59 59 59 875mb GPH (m): 1274 1278 1277 1271 1275 1274 1267 1253 1250 1249 1247 1240 1243 1244 1252 1250 1251 1247 1247 875mb Temp (C): -10.8 -9.7 -8.9 -8.2 -8.4 -8.0 -10.0 -9.6 -9.9 -8.8 -7.2 -6.0 -3.5 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 -0.3 1.1 1.6 875mb Dewpt(C): -40.2 -34.7 -29.8 -26.7 -26.6 -24.6 -14.7 -10.9 -10.9 -9.7 -7.7 -6.4 -3.7 -2.5 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 0.9 1.4 875mb RH (%): 7 11 17 22 22 26 69 90 92 93 96 97 99 99 99 100 100 99 99 875mb Dir: 222 221 218 218 218 217 210 204 204 207 216 227 238 240 234 227 224 220 225 875mb Speed(kt): 29 31 34 34 37 40 42 50 49 49 47 50 57 60 61 62 64 63 63 850mb GPH (m): 1497 1501 1502 1496 1500 1498 1491 1478 1474 1474 1473 1468 1472 1475 1483 1481 1483 1480 1481 850mb Temp (C): -9.9 -9.2 -8.2 -7.4 -7.4 -8.4 -9.5 -7.8 -8.0 -7.2 -6.0 -4.9 -2.5 -1.9 -1.9 -1.8 -0.9 0.2 0.6 850mb Dewpt(C): -43.4 -37.6 -31.4 -28.1 -27.7 -19.2 -12.2 -8.7 -8.6 -7.7 -6.4 -5.0 -2.6 -2.0 -1.9 -1.8 -1.0 0.1 0.4 850mb RH (%): 5 8 14 18 19 42 81 94 95 96 97 99 99 99 100 100 99 99 99 850mb Dir: 224 223 220 222 221 218 210 212 217 221 230 238 244 244 240 231 230 225 228 850mb Speed(kt): 30 33 36 37 40 43 45 53 52 52 54 58 66 68 66 64 67 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The RGEM looks like it gives Boston significant FZRAIt does not, it's all snow per the meteograms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wall of white moving east into the area shortly Anyone get any reports on what's falling west of here? Deep virga, or hitting the ground? Radar shows light stuff just about over SI, north up into Rockland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I don't think anyone was hugging the NAM rather just analyzing the model data it was showing for the boundary layer because that information was most readily available while waiting for other models to come in The globals have been trending towards the mesos, for about 48 hrs now. That's why the NAM and RGEM are being favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Hey guys - my flight leaves from JFK at midnight - do you think a bulk of the storm will be over by then? It looks like it will start sooner than I thought. Snow may be ok, but the freezing rain worries me. That sounds like an international flight? If so highly unlikely it's cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Given the wall of precip incoming, the cold temps, frozen ground, and hours of precip before upper levels warm we should see snow accumulating quickly. This is really why imo the 3-6" is a good call for NYC and surrounding. Show time soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Given the wall of precip incoming, the cold temps, frozen ground, and hours of precip before upper levels warm we should see snow accumulating quickly. This is really why imo the 3-6" is a good call for NYC and surrounding. Show time soon check the radar again and notice the direction the precip is moving in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Echoes really building sw of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Echoes really building sw of Philly You aint kidding. What a week, I mean month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 check the radar again and notice the direction the precip is moving in... Yea SW to NE.... couple hrs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow won't get here til 19-20z I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Latest HRRR from 15Z has the 0 degree line at 925mb slicing through NYC at 4z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 New map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Are those 25dbzs?wowzer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Radar exploding sw of Philly. Weenie mode: activated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow won't get here til 19-20z I think So it'll cause road problems as that's more late afternoon than early with less solar heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 This Storm won't have much virga.. Reports of light snow up in Liberty ny where soundings aren't even that great yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 By the looks of the radar, we are in for a nice thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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