2/21-2/23 Weekend Possible Storm

[West Point, NY]

Latest RAP really taints LHV crushes NNJ and NWNJ

Thats the Mid Hudson Valley. Clearly hits Rockland, Westchester hard also

[SleetStormNJ]

 

12Z NAM for EWR (Newark) is tainted beginning at 15 Hours (10pm)... The surface temp doesn't get above freezing the whole time but from 1000MB to 900MB it does so this will probably be sleet at the start and go to Freezing Rain per the NAM model output. Not saying I agree just reading the output and showing the different layers of the boundary layer.

 

Before the taint .26 falls as snow and the rest of the qpf (.51) is tainted from 15 hours to 21 hours when the precip ends

Station ID: KEWR Lat:   40.68 Long:  -74.16 Elevation:     5.0                                  NAM Model Run: 12Z FEB 21, 2015                                                                                                                                                                 Forecast Hours:    0hr    3hr    6hr    9hr   12hr   15hr   18hr   21hr   24hr   27hr   30hr    Sfc Prs(mb):    1030.8 1029.4 1026.7 1023.3 1020.7 1018.7 1017.1 1016.4 1017.3 1018.8 1018.6    Mean SLP (mb):  1033.7 1032.3 1029.6 1026.2 1023.5 1021.5 1019.9 1019.2 1020.1 1021.6 1021.4    2m agl Tmp (F):    7.4   18.0   24.6   26.7   27.1   30.5   31.5   31.5   31.1   31.9   32.3    2m AGL Dewpt(F):  -1.8    9.9   16.8   25.1   26.0   29.9   30.9   31.1   30.4   30.6   31.1    2m agl RH (%):      66     70     72     93     96     98     98     98     97     95     96    10m agl W  Dir:    230    181    192    183    180    201    282    311    274    311    273    10m agl Spd(kt):     2      8      9     11      8      4      2      2      2      3      3    3hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.06   0.20   0.22   0.25   0.04   0.00   0.00   0.00    AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.06   0.26   0.48   0.73   0.76   0.76   0.77   0.77    Precip H20 (in):   0.1    0.3    0.4    0.6    0.6    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.6    0.5    0.3    Best LI     (C):  23.2   21.8   23.4   17.6   14.3   12.5   11.7   12.0   12.0   12.2    8.5    700mb VV(-ub/s):   0.5   -2.3    7.8    4.6   10.7    9.2    0.6    3.7   -2.7   -2.0    0.7    Thk1000-500mb(m)5237.1 5282.7 5318.0 5340.6 5368.5 5391.4 5406.4 5403.7 5390.0 5373.5 5368.3    Thk1000-850mb(m)1243.2 1251.9 1257.9 1266.5 1286.0 1304.4 1308.8 1300.5 1299.8 1297.3 1300.4    Thk850-700mb(m):1487.7 1505.1 1511.7 1525.6 1529.1 1525.5 1524.2 1533.4 1536.6 1539.8 1538.3    Heat Index (F):      7     18     25     27     27     30     32     31     31     32     32                                                                                                   1000mb GPH (m):     254    246    228    204    183    169    158    152    159    170    169   1000mb Temp (C):  -10.8   -9.6   -6.5   -4.4   -3.7   -1.3    0.4    0.0   -0.1   -0.7    0.0   1000mb Dewpt(C):  -21.6  -19.3  -10.8   -5.3   -4.2   -1.8    0.1   -0.3   -1.1   -2.6   -2.7   1000mb RH (%):       41     46     71     94     96     97     98     98     93     87     82   1000mb Dir:         207    186    192    189    187    204    234    272    286    321    304   1000mb Speed(kt):    15     15     13     19     15     11     10      9      7      7      4                                                                                                    975mb GPH (m):     448    441    426    403    384    372    362    355    362    373    372    975mb Temp (C):  -11.6  -10.4   -8.3   -5.8   -4.3   -0.4    1.8    0.3   -0.8   -0.9   -0.1    975mb Dewpt(C):  -22.0  -23.2  -11.6   -6.7   -4.9   -0.6    1.7    0.1   -2.3   -4.7   -4.6    975mb RH (%):       42     35     77     93     95     99     99     98     89     75     72    975mb Dir:         211    193    190    195    197    206    222    257    295    345    353    975mb Speed(kt):    16     23     16     27     24     26     27     22     15     14      7                                                                                                    950mb GPH (m):     646    641    627    606    588    580    572    563    569    580    580    950mb Temp (C):  -13.0  -11.5   -9.5   -7.2   -3.5    1.6    2.9    0.2    0.1   -0.1    0.1    950mb Dewpt(C):  -25.8  -24.7  -16.1   -8.5   -4.1    1.4    2.6   -0.2   -3.0   -4.5   -4.8    950mb RH (%):       34     33     59     91     96     99     98     97     79     72     69    950mb Dir:         215    196    193    199    207    207    225    262    303    331    305    950mb Speed(kt):    17     25     23     34     37     44     42     31     16      9      9                                                                                                    925mb GPH (m):     849    845    832    813    800    796    788    777    783    794    794    925mb Temp (C):  -12.8  -11.6   -9.6   -8.6   -2.8    2.2    2.8    0.0    0.3   -0.4   -0.7    925mb Dewpt(C):  -32.2  -29.8  -26.8   -9.8   -3.2    2.1    2.5   -0.6   -2.6   -4.4   -5.9    925mb RH (%):       19     21     24     91     97     99     98     95     80     74     68    925mb Dir:         219    202    202    204    212    209    231    263    277    280    278    925mb Speed(kt):    24     28     33     40     48     57     51     34     14     11     13                                                                                                    900mb GPH (m):    1058   1055   1044   1025   1017   1017   1009    996   1003   1013   1012    900mb Temp (C):  -11.7  -10.0   -8.8   -9.1   -3.1    1.1    1.4   -0.5   -0.3   -1.2   -1.1    900mb Dewpt(C):  -36.7  -33.4  -29.9  -10.3   -3.5    1.0    1.3   -1.4   -1.9   -4.8   -6.6    900mb RH (%):       11     13     17     91     97     99     99     94     89     77     66    900mb Dir:         221    207    210    211    217    213    235    254    256    267    275    900mb Speed(kt):    29     33     40     49     54     62     55     31     21     20     19                                                                                                    875mb GPH (m):    1274   1273   1262   1244   1240   1242   1236   1221   1228   1237   1237    875mb Temp (C):  -10.7   -8.2   -8.8   -7.9   -3.1   -0.7   -0.2   -1.2   -1.0   -1.6    0.3    875mb Dewpt(C):  -38.6  -35.1  -24.6   -9.0   -3.5   -0.9   -0.3   -1.9   -2.5   -5.7   -6.4    875mb RH (%):        9     10     27     92     98     99    100     94     89     73     61    875mb Dir:         223    212    211    221    228    217    236    246    250    264    265    875mb Speed(kt):    30     35     45     55     56     64     57     31     29     25     22                                                                                                    850mb GPH (m):    1497   1498   1486   1470   1469   1474   1467   1452   1459   1468   1470    850mb Temp (C):   -9.7   -7.3  -10.8   -5.3   -2.5   -1.5   -1.7   -1.9   -1.7   -1.5    0.6    850mb Dewpt(C):  -39.7  -40.0  -17.9   -5.9   -2.9   -1.7   -1.8   -2.7   -3.3   -5.5   -9.4    850mb RH (%):        7      6     56     96     97     98    100     94     89     74     47    850mb Dir:         226    219    211    231    240    222    238    238    248    258    264    850mb Speed(kt):    30     38     48     58     68     67     58     35     35     26     24                                                                                                    825mb GPH (m):    1728   1730   1715   1705   1707   1711   1704   1689   1696   1706   1709    825mb Temp (C):   -9.9   -7.7   -9.4   -3.8   -2.3   -2.5   -3.0   -2.8   -2.5   -1.1    0.4    825mb Dewpt(C):  -40.8  -33.0  -11.2   -4.0   -2.5   -2.8   -3.2   -3.8   -3.9   -5.3  -14.4    825mb RH (%):        6     12     87     98     99     98     99     93     90     73     32    825mb Dir:         230    224    212    239    240    230    237    233    247    253    263    825mb Speed(kt):    30     38     49     66     74     69     55     41     38     29     24                                                                                                   

 

Some of that "tainted" QPF probably falls as snow still.  But, yeah, definitely a troubling signal for prolonged icing and at a time when roads are generally awful and a lot of areas are depleted from using too much salt already.

[Yanksfan]

Anyone agree with me that Upton should issue a winter storm warning for NYC?

I think they should extend the WSW throughout the rest of northern jersey which I think they might do later on this afternoon. NYC is right on the fence in my opinion.

[IsentropicLift]

I still like a TTN to MMU JP and not because I live there, look at the radar. It will snow the hardest there for the longest period of time. The further East you go time is not on your side because temps will gradually warm as we head into tonight. Not an all out torch, but I expect a lot of CNJ and LI to crack freezing, with mid 30's on the south shore of LI.

[SnowWisher]

NYC is similar but certainly looks icy with temps staying below freezing.. 3-4" first then taint.

Station ID: KNYC Lat:   40.78 Long:  -73.96 Elevation:    47.0                                  NAM Model Run: 12Z FEB 21, 2015                                                                                                                                                                 Forecast Hours:    0hr    3hr    6hr    9hr   12hr   15hr   18hr   21hr   24hr   27hr   30hr    Sfc Prs(mb):    1032.7 1031.4 1028.7 1025.4 1022.7 1020.6 1019.1 1018.2 1019.1 1020.6 1020.3    Mean SLP (mb):  1033.7 1032.4 1029.7 1026.4 1023.7 1021.6 1020.1 1019.1 1020.1 1021.6 1021.3    2m agl Tmp (F):    8.8   19.2   25.1   26.9   27.7   30.7   30.9   30.9   30.6   32.0   32.9    2m AGL Dewpt(F):   0.1   10.9   17.8   25.3   26.5   30.5   30.1   30.2   29.6   30.5   31.7    2m agl RH (%):      68     70     74     94     95     99     97     97     96     94     95    10m agl W  Dir:    215    182    193    184    182    202    299    315    282    309    283    10m agl Spd(kt):     2      8      9     11      9      4      2      2      1      3      3    3hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.05   0.19   0.22   0.26   0.04   0.00   0.00   0.00    AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.05   0.24   0.45   0.72   0.76   0.76   0.76   0.76    Precip H20 (in):   0.1    0.3    0.4    0.5    0.6    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.6    0.5    0.3    Best LI     (C):  23.5   21.9   23.6   19.1   14.8   12.8   12.3   11.8   12.0   12.3    8.4    700mb VV(-ub/s):   0.8   -2.6    6.7    4.1    9.8    9.5    2.5    2.8   -3.0   -2.1    0.8    Thk1000-500mb(m)5232.9 5279.8 5316.0 5337.3 5365.8 5389.2 5404.5 5403.5 5389.1 5372.1 5367.7    Thk1000-850mb(m)1242.7 1252.0 1259.1 1266.0 1284.8 1303.6 1308.5 1300.4 1299.1 1296.8 1300.0    Thk850-700mb(m):1486.4 1503.9 1509.6 1523.4 1528.0 1525.1 1523.9 1533.3 1535.8 1539.3 1538.3    Heat Index (F):      9     19     25     27     28     31     31     31     31     32     33                                                                                                   1000mb GPH (m):     254    246    229    205    185    170    159    151    159    170    168   1000mb Temp (C):  -10.5   -9.6   -6.3   -4.3   -3.4   -1.5   -0.1   -0.3   -0.4   -1.1   -0.5   1000mb Dewpt(C):  -21.4  -17.5  -10.5   -5.1   -3.9   -1.8   -0.5   -0.7   -1.4   -2.9   -2.7   1000mb RH (%):       41     53     72     94     96     98     97     97     93     87     85   1000mb Dir:         209    187    191    189    188    201    243    276    290    318    305   1000mb Speed(kt):    15     14     14     20     17     12      9      8      7      7      4                                                                                                    975mb GPH (m):     448    442    427    404    385    372    362    354    361    373    371    975mb Temp (C):  -11.6  -10.4   -8.1   -5.6   -4.3   -0.5    1.7    0.4   -0.6   -1.1   -0.3    975mb Dewpt(C):  -21.9  -22.2  -11.4   -6.5   -4.9   -0.7    1.6    0.1   -2.4   -5.2   -5.4    975mb RH (%):       43     38     77     94     95     99     99     98     88     74     69    975mb Dir:         212    193    190    195    197    205    224    256    294    339      8    975mb Speed(kt):    16     22     17     29     26     26     27     21     16     15      7                                                                                                    950mb GPH (m):     646    641    628    608    590    581    572    563    569    580    579    950mb Temp (C):  -13.0  -11.7   -9.3   -7.1   -3.8    1.4    3.1    0.2    0.1   -0.1    0.1    950mb Dewpt(C):  -26.2  -24.4  -15.7   -8.3   -4.4    1.2    2.9   -0.2   -3.2   -4.4   -4.9    950mb RH (%):       33     34     60     91     96     98     98     97     79     73     69    950mb Dir:         215    196    192    199    207    208    224    262    302    324    309    950mb Speed(kt):    17     24     24     36     37     43     43     30     16     10     10                                                                                                    925mb GPH (m):     849    845    834    815    801    796    789    776    783    793    793    925mb Temp (C):  -12.8  -11.7   -9.4   -8.5   -3.0    2.0    2.9    0.0    0.1   -0.5   -0.5    925mb Dewpt(C):  -34.1  -31.1  -29.0   -9.8   -3.5    1.9    2.6   -0.8   -2.7   -4.5   -5.8    925mb RH (%):       16     19     19     91     96     99     98     94     81     74     67    925mb Dir:         219    202    202    203    214    211    230    263    277    279    276    925mb Speed(kt):    24     29     33     41     48     57     51     33     14     10     13                                                                                                    900mb GPH (m):    1058   1055   1046   1027   1018   1017   1010    996   1002   1012   1011    900mb Temp (C):  -11.8  -10.2   -8.6   -9.2   -3.6    0.6    1.3   -0.6   -0.5   -1.2   -1.1    900mb Dewpt(C):  -38.6  -34.5  -39.7  -10.6   -4.0    0.4    1.1   -1.6   -2.1   -4.8   -6.6    900mb RH (%):        9     12      6     90     97     99     99     93     89     77     66    900mb Dir:         221    208    210    209    218    213    234    256    256    267    275    900mb Speed(kt):    29     33     40     49     54     61     56     31     22     20     19                                                                                                    875mb GPH (m):    1274   1273   1264   1245   1240   1242   1236   1221   1227   1237   1236    875mb Temp (C):  -11.1   -8.3   -8.4   -8.3   -3.9   -0.8   -0.4   -1.2   -1.2   -1.7    0.1    875mb Dewpt(C):  -40.3  -35.4  -29.5   -9.6   -4.2   -1.0   -0.5   -2.0   -2.4   -5.7   -6.6    875mb RH (%):        7     10     17     91     97     98     99     94     92     74     61    875mb Dir:         223    213    211    218    229    217    235    247    250    264    267    875mb Speed(kt):    30     36     44     56     56     63     57     31     30     25     22                                                                                                    850mb GPH (m):    1497   1498   1488   1471   1470   1474   1467   1452   1458   1467   1468    850mb Temp (C):   -9.8   -7.4  -10.5   -6.1   -2.8   -1.7   -1.7   -1.8   -1.8   -1.6    0.5    850mb Dewpt(C):  -40.1  -40.3  -19.5   -6.8   -3.2   -1.9   -1.8   -2.7   -3.2   -5.7   -9.2    850mb RH (%):        7      6     48     95     97     98     99     94     90     74     48    850mb Dir:         227    219    211    229    240    222    236    238    247    258    265    850mb Speed(kt):    30     37     47     57     68     66     59     35     36     26     24 

[rgwp96]

With this mornings trends Maybe now most will be happy and the bickering will stop lol

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Thats the Mid Hudson Valley. Clearly hits Rockland, Westchester hard also

I respectfully disagree, extreme southern rockland and westchester are ok on the rap, North of that taints...

[IsentropicLift]

it's going to be a very tight cutoff over Orange County, all of the modeling has it.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

it's going to be a very tight cutoff over Orange County, all of the modeling has it.

Yea gonna blow lol... RGEM is probably the best for our area up here

[WintersGrasp]

Freezing rain could be a bigger problem than people are thinking right now. I think the same thing as yesterday.....2-4" for most areas with 5" as you head SW with some areas 6". I'm not sure we completely flip over to plain rain in NNJ. One thing.....As the majority of this thread's posts consist of people arguing over if they see an inch or two more than someone else blah blah blah.....I don't think there will be 2" in one area, and 5" nearby.....Naturally we'll have an area that receives a heavier band or two, but I don't think anyone will receive an obscene amount of snow, nor do I think anywhere in the vicinity will receive barely anything (in our areas at least). The ground is very cold and while I could see the mixing coming in sooner than some are thinking, I also think the mixing will last longer. Either way, it warms up tomorrow and refreezes tomorrow night. Be safe out there everyone

[IrishRob17]

Anyone agree with me that Upton should issue a winter storm warning for NYC?

No

[ag3]

Why is anyone using anything other then the Rgem is beyond me.

It's the best model we have and is locked in.

4"-8" snowfall coming for the entire region.

[jbenedet]

Another noticeable tick colder on the GFS for NYC and LI.

Keep in mind GFS tends to be high with surface temps. I recall with the last marginal event that gfs mos guidance was easily 3F too warm at the surface inside 24 hrs.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Rgem bullseye in westchester

[MJO812]

Why is anyone using anything other then the Rgem is beyond me.

It's the best model we have and is locked in.

4"-8" snowfall coming for the entire region.

Agree. 3-6/4-8 inches look really likely based off the Nam, GFS and RGEM.

[West Point, NY]

Anyone agree with me that Upton should issue a winter storm warning for NYC?

Yeah, when you agreed with climatology that you shouldn't expect more than 2 feet of snow for a whole winter where you live and stop acting like you are gypped every storm that doesn't produce 25-100 percent of your annual average . your average high is around 43 now. Let's face reality.I shouldn't expect good pizza and you shouldn't expect 4 or 5 feet of snow a year in Brooklyn

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Rgem solid 3-6" area wide with westchester seeing 6"

[chietanen]

12z GFS looks snowier for most of you guys as well.

 

Regarding that sucker zone, in my opinion it's unlikely to verify over Orange county. I doubt the elevation there is significant enough to cause shadowing. If anything, that would be more likely over Ulster county, northeast of the Catskills. Going to come down to nowcasting for those of us in the Hudson valley. Could go either way. At least we stay all snow it looks like.

[snowman19]

it's going to be a very tight cutoff over Orange County, all of the modeling has it.

Looks like a big cutoff in Rockland, hate to say it

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

12z GFS looks snowier for most of you guys as well.

Regarding that sucker zone, in my opinion it's unlikely to verify over Orange county. I doubt the elevation there is significant enough to cause shadowing. If anything, that would be more likely over Ulster county, northeast of the Catskills. Going to come down to nowcasting for those of us in the Hudson valley. Could go either way. At least we stay all snow it looks like.

Comepletely agree

[MJO812]

Yeah, when you agreed with climatology that you shouldn't expect more than 2 feet of snow for a whole winter where you live and stop acting like you are gypped every storm that doesn't produce 25-100 percent of your annual average.

What?

[UnionWeatherWx]

Idk I'm hearing 2-4" yet I'm seeing 6"+ on some models.

[winterwarlock]

Why is everyone hugging the nam...serious question. .why is the gfs and euro being tossed

[gravitylover]

Rgem bullseye in westchester

Great.  I'll be driving through there in a sports car between 7:30 and ...? depending on how bad the roads are.  Thankfully one of my favorite things to do is drive in heavy snow 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Idk I'm hearing 2-4" yet I'm seeing 6"+ on some models.

Yea nam and rgem are drastically different in terms of snow for NNJ, WNJ and EPA

[SnowGoose69]

One thing is for sure the HRRR isn't too enthused with any decent snow rates here til 23z or so but it has sucked recently, the RAP which has been better is more aggressive

[gravitylover]

this board is unbearable - never seen people bicker so much.. is everyone under the age of 12?

No but I have been 14 for ~34 years 

[UnionWeatherWx]

Why are we still looking at models anyway, look at the radar, it's now cast time.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Looking quickly 12z GFS and RGEM seem similar am I wrong?

Snowfall wise

[winterwarlock]

The mets seemed to be taking blends it would seem and will wait to adjust totals upwards