IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Morris County NJ just flipped from an advisory to a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Also, NYC precipitation looks similar on both maps. But look at, for example, NW Connecticut and compare the maps. They couldn't be more different. So we either need to look at the overall look and feel of the maps, or we need to microanalyze our back yards. Some people will prefer 1 map over the other based on their location. But again, for the City, they look fairly similar. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Also, NYC precipitation looks similar on both maps. But look at, for example, NW Connecticut and compare the maps. They couldn't be more different. So we either need to look at the overall look and feel of the maps, or we need to microanalyze our back yards. Some people will prefer 1 map over the other based on their location. But again, for the City, they look fairly similar. I totally agree, it needs to not be over analysed, but misinformation is rampant.. Neither model showed 8" areawide 3-6" yes... So telling all the readers 4-8 is extremely misleading... Am I really that bad of a guy for wanting people to tell the truth when giving model output verbatim? And not inflating them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ1011 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015...A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THENORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NJZ008-212315-/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.150221T1700Z-150222T1100Z//O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0005.150221T1700Z-150222T1100Z/MORRIS-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MORRISTOWN1011 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THEWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES....ALONG WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN...ALLOWING THE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN SOME SPOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE WINTRY MIX ENDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POOR VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE-HALF MILE ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY RISING TO THE UPPER 20S LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSOPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Latest RAP really taints LHV crushes NNJ and NWNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Latest RAP really taints LHV crushes NNJ and NWNJ NENJ as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I totally agree, it needs to not be over analysed, but misinformation is rampant.. Neither model showed 8" areawide 3-6" yes... So telling all the readers 4-8 is extremely misleading... Am I really that bad of a guy for wanting people to tell the truth when giving model output verbatim? And not inflating them? No. I think just a softer touch with it perhaps. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 How's the 12z RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Mount holly WE ARE EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING A SLICE FARTHER TO THESOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT 12Z SOUNDINGS VS MODEL PROJECTIONS, IFANYTHING MODELING ERRORS ARE TOO WARM. THE NAM VERIFIED THE BESTWITH THE QPF PROJECTIONS THRU 12Z AND ITS WETTEST, DRIEST ECMWFVERIFIED THE POOREST. LATEST NAM/RAP/HRRR ARE EITHER SNOWIER ORSLOWER TO BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. SO IN THAT NEW WARNINGSLICE, IF WE ARE TOO HEAVY WITH THE SNOW, CHANCES ARE WE MAY BETOO LIGHT ON THE ICE.THIS ALSO BRINGS THE GRADIENT UNCERTAINTY TO THE I295 CORRIDOR INSWRN NJ. WE WILL SEE WHAT ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS SHOW BEFOREDECIDING IF A FURTHER SEWD EXPANSION IS NEEDED THERE TOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 RGEM KNYC 13MM of snow .511 4 to 6 @ KNYC still looks good . only 4.5 mm of rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NENJ as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NENJ as well? 3-4" most of the area, 5" western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The RGEM looks like it gives Boston significant FZRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Rgem is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NENJ as well?That looks not so good from extreme northern Bergen county on north if it's correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Rgem is beautifulYes, yes it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm incline to NOT take the short terms serious with this.. They just do not line up with other guidance, I know everyone hates the nam, but I'll take a NAM/RGEM blend like I said yesterday... Should be a solid 3-6" area wide with pockets of 4-6 and maybe just maybe some lollies of 6-8" Just my personal call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z RGEM 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm incline to NOT take the short terms serious with this.. They just do not line up with other guidance, I know everyone hates the nam, but I'll take a NAM/RGEM blend like I said yesterday... Should be a solid 3-6" area wide with pockets of 4-6 and maybe just maybe some lollies of 6-8" Just my personal call Let me guess. The pocket of 6"-8" is in NWNJ and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 4-8 AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The RGEM looks like it gives Boston significant FZRA Yes. It's really extending that swath of ice potential over the last few runs. Could be the bigger story with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Let me guess. The pocket of 6"-8" is in NWNJ and north. Looks like the heaviest will be in north central nj now...out towards lehigh valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well the advisory is back to 2-4" which given the slightly colder scenario makes more sense. Things keep flipping back and forth that I'm confused. Initially it looked like a nonevent at 1-3" and now people are saying otherwise so I guess we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Anyone agree with me that Upton should issue a winter storm warning for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Northern Middlessex/Southern Union is going to JP. First one to say. Last one to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Anyone agree with me that Upton should issue a winter storm warning for NYC? No, but I don't know why they aren't issuing one for places west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12Z NAM for EWR (Newark) is tainted beginning at 15 Hours (10pm)... The surface temp doesn't get above freezing the whole time but from 1000MB to 900MB it does so this will probably be sleet at the start and go to Freezing Rain per the NAM model output. Not saying I agree just reading the output and showing the different layers of the boundary layer. Before the taint .26 falls as snow and the rest of the qpf (.51) is tainted from 15 hours to 21 hours when the precip ends Station ID: KEWR Lat: 40.68 Long: -74.16 Elevation: 5.0 NAM Model Run: 12Z FEB 21, 2015 Forecast Hours: 0hr 3hr 6hr 9hr 12hr 15hr 18hr 21hr 24hr 27hr 30hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1030.8 1029.4 1026.7 1023.3 1020.7 1018.7 1017.1 1016.4 1017.3 1018.8 1018.6 Mean SLP (mb): 1033.7 1032.3 1029.6 1026.2 1023.5 1021.5 1019.9 1019.2 1020.1 1021.6 1021.4 2m agl Tmp (F): 7.4 18.0 24.6 26.7 27.1 30.5 31.5 31.5 31.1 31.9 32.3 2m AGL Dewpt(F): -1.8 9.9 16.8 25.1 26.0 29.9 30.9 31.1 30.4 30.6 31.1 2m agl RH (%): 66 70 72 93 96 98 98 98 97 95 96 10m agl W Dir: 230 181 192 183 180 201 282 311 274 311 273 10m agl Spd(kt): 2 8 9 11 8 4 2 2 2 3 3 3hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.20 0.22 0.25 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.26 0.48 0.73 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.77 Precip H20 (in): 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 Best LI (C): 23.2 21.8 23.4 17.6 14.3 12.5 11.7 12.0 12.0 12.2 8.5 700mb VV(-ub/s): 0.5 -2.3 7.8 4.6 10.7 9.2 0.6 3.7 -2.7 -2.0 0.7 Thk1000-500mb(m)5237.1 5282.7 5318.0 5340.6 5368.5 5391.4 5406.4 5403.7 5390.0 5373.5 5368.3 Thk1000-850mb(m)1243.2 1251.9 1257.9 1266.5 1286.0 1304.4 1308.8 1300.5 1299.8 1297.3 1300.4 Thk850-700mb(m):1487.7 1505.1 1511.7 1525.6 1529.1 1525.5 1524.2 1533.4 1536.6 1539.8 1538.3 Heat Index (F): 7 18 25 27 27 30 32 31 31 32 32 1000mb GPH (m): 254 246 228 204 183 169 158 152 159 170 169 1000mb Temp (C): -10.8 -9.6 -6.5 -4.4 -3.7 -1.3 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 1000mb Dewpt(C): -21.6 -19.3 -10.8 -5.3 -4.2 -1.8 0.1 -0.3 -1.1 -2.6 -2.7 1000mb RH (%): 41 46 71 94 96 97 98 98 93 87 82 1000mb Dir: 207 186 192 189 187 204 234 272 286 321 304 1000mb Speed(kt): 15 15 13 19 15 11 10 9 7 7 4 975mb GPH (m): 448 441 426 403 384 372 362 355 362 373 372 975mb Temp (C): -11.6 -10.4 -8.3 -5.8 -4.3 -0.4 1.8 0.3 -0.8 -0.9 -0.1 975mb Dewpt(C): -22.0 -23.2 -11.6 -6.7 -4.9 -0.6 1.7 0.1 -2.3 -4.7 -4.6 975mb RH (%): 42 35 77 93 95 99 99 98 89 75 72 975mb Dir: 211 193 190 195 197 206 222 257 295 345 353 975mb Speed(kt): 16 23 16 27 24 26 27 22 15 14 7 950mb GPH (m): 646 641 627 606 588 580 572 563 569 580 580 950mb Temp (C): -13.0 -11.5 -9.5 -7.2 -3.5 1.6 2.9 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 950mb Dewpt(C): -25.8 -24.7 -16.1 -8.5 -4.1 1.4 2.6 -0.2 -3.0 -4.5 -4.8 950mb RH (%): 34 33 59 91 96 99 98 97 79 72 69 950mb Dir: 215 196 193 199 207 207 225 262 303 331 305 950mb Speed(kt): 17 25 23 34 37 44 42 31 16 9 9 925mb GPH (m): 849 845 832 813 800 796 788 777 783 794 794 925mb Temp (C): -12.8 -11.6 -9.6 -8.6 -2.8 2.2 2.8 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.7 925mb Dewpt(C): -32.2 -29.8 -26.8 -9.8 -3.2 2.1 2.5 -0.6 -2.6 -4.4 -5.9 925mb RH (%): 19 21 24 91 97 99 98 95 80 74 68 925mb Dir: 219 202 202 204 212 209 231 263 277 280 278 925mb Speed(kt): 24 28 33 40 48 57 51 34 14 11 13 900mb GPH (m): 1058 1055 1044 1025 1017 1017 1009 996 1003 1013 1012 900mb Temp (C): -11.7 -10.0 -8.8 -9.1 -3.1 1.1 1.4 -0.5 -0.3 -1.2 -1.1 900mb Dewpt(C): -36.7 -33.4 -29.9 -10.3 -3.5 1.0 1.3 -1.4 -1.9 -4.8 -6.6 900mb RH (%): 11 13 17 91 97 99 99 94 89 77 66 900mb Dir: 221 207 210 211 217 213 235 254 256 267 275 900mb Speed(kt): 29 33 40 49 54 62 55 31 21 20 19 875mb GPH (m): 1274 1273 1262 1244 1240 1242 1236 1221 1228 1237 1237 875mb Temp (C): -10.7 -8.2 -8.8 -7.9 -3.1 -0.7 -0.2 -1.2 -1.0 -1.6 0.3 875mb Dewpt(C): -38.6 -35.1 -24.6 -9.0 -3.5 -0.9 -0.3 -1.9 -2.5 -5.7 -6.4 875mb RH (%): 9 10 27 92 98 99 100 94 89 73 61 875mb Dir: 223 212 211 221 228 217 236 246 250 264 265 875mb Speed(kt): 30 35 45 55 56 64 57 31 29 25 22 850mb GPH (m): 1497 1498 1486 1470 1469 1474 1467 1452 1459 1468 1470 850mb Temp (C): -9.7 -7.3 -10.8 -5.3 -2.5 -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 -1.7 -1.5 0.6 850mb Dewpt(C): -39.7 -40.0 -17.9 -5.9 -2.9 -1.7 -1.8 -2.7 -3.3 -5.5 -9.4 850mb RH (%): 7 6 56 96 97 98 100 94 89 74 47 850mb Dir: 226 219 211 231 240 222 238 238 248 258 264 850mb Speed(kt): 30 38 48 58 68 67 58 35 35 26 24 825mb GPH (m): 1728 1730 1715 1705 1707 1711 1704 1689 1696 1706 1709 825mb Temp (C): -9.9 -7.7 -9.4 -3.8 -2.3 -2.5 -3.0 -2.8 -2.5 -1.1 0.4 825mb Dewpt(C): -40.8 -33.0 -11.2 -4.0 -2.5 -2.8 -3.2 -3.8 -3.9 -5.3 -14.4 825mb RH (%): 6 12 87 98 99 98 99 93 90 73 32 825mb Dir: 230 224 212 239 240 230 237 233 247 253 263 825mb Speed(kt): 30 38 49 66 74 69 55 41 38 29 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Mount holly WE ARE EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING A SLICE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT 12Z SOUNDINGS VS MODEL PROJECTIONS, IF ANYTHING MODELING ERRORS ARE TOO WARM. THE NAM VERIFIED THE BEST WITH THE QPF PROJECTIONS THRU 12Z AND ITS WETTEST, DRIEST ECMWF VERIFIED THE POOREST. LATEST NAM/RAP/HRRR ARE EITHER SNOWIER OR SLOWER TO BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. SO IN THAT NEW WARNING SLICE, IF WE ARE TOO HEAVY WITH THE SNOW, CHANCES ARE WE MAY BE TOO LIGHT ON THE ICE. THIS ALSO BRINGS THE GRADIENT UNCERTAINTY TO THE I295 CORRIDOR IN SWRN NJ. WE WILL SEE WHAT ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS SHOW BEFORE DECIDING IF A FURTHER SEWD EXPANSION IS NEEDED THERE TOO. Yep warnnings now for Phl and Ttn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Latest RAP really taints LHV crushes NNJ and NWNJThats the Mid Hudson Valley. Clearly hits Rockland, Westchester hard also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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