snowman19 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yea she literally makes no sense... Every tv met hugs one model depending on the storm and it's painfully obvious to those that know betterThis is still projected to all end at 1am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nam is coming in colder lol. Surface temps and 850s are freezing throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nam is coming in colder lol. Surface temps and 850s are freezing throughout the event. Yup looks like a N/C NJ / NYC snow bomb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 MUCH colder run...even S/C NJ might do very well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 24 hr qpf on the nam. drier for the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Seems like a shift here....C NJ might do better than LHV and NW NJ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well if anything we are due for a storm to trend better right before the event rather than vice versa. I know bad meteorology but one has to hope. NAM does sorta look like what the Canadian models have been showing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 N/C NJ 0.75"-0.9" LE all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The surface low moving into the lakes should fizzle completely around 0z Sunday. Dynamically I don't see any reason for it to survive. My thinking is this will look much more like an arctic frontal passage, than a SWFE. Perhaps more accurately, it's a hybrid of sorts as it transitions from the latter to the former. I can see a weak surface low wanting to form east of the cape, or near down east Maine...I'm thinking one of these two areas should take precedence. The implications of this on coastal areas is potentially significant as the wind direction will have more of a westerly component (over land). There is significant risk, in my opinion, that coastal areas surprise to the upside in terms of frozen precip. Don't say I didn't tell you so. Where is that GL low? That's right- GONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nam is coming in colder lol. Surface temps and 850s are freezing throughout the event. Makes sense in terms that this will end up colder then forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 925 is still a problem on the Nam. Looks like snow to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Last minute south trend - we've seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 925 is still a problem on the Nam. Looks like snow to sleet. With surface below freezing, 850's below freezing,heavy precip, and only +1 or so at 925 not sure will do much damage. My guess just a lower ratio snow/rimed snow, instead of all out sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 With surface below freezing, 850's below freezing,heavy precip, and only +1 or so at 925 not sure will do much damage. My guess just a lower ratio snow/rimed snow, instead of all out sleet. If it does change over, it should be sleet not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 If it does change over, it should be sleet not rain.Ratios are going to be horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ratios are going to be horrible 9 to 1 at worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ratios are going to be horrible Okay but we are still getting several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 N/C NJ 0.75"-0.9" LE all snow...it is certainly not all snow except for nw areas . Many areas go to sleet at or before hr 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 it is certainly not all snow except for nw areas . Many areas go to sleet at or before hr 15 I disagree but we will see what the map snowoutput states... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 If it does change over, it should be sleet not rain. If the warm layer is very narrow/shallow it can be quickly eliminated by dynamic and evaporative cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I disagree but we will see what the map snowoutput states...Did u look at soundings ? Based in nam soundings u go over to sleet at or before hr 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 9 to 1 at worst And if that, it would be more so later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 With surface below freezing, 850's below freezing,heavy precip, and only +1 or so at 925 not sure will do much damage. My guess just a lower ratio snow/rimed snow, instead of all out sleet. And 900 level above 32 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Did u look at soundings ? Based in nam soundings u go over to sleet at or before hr 15 the warm layer is low and shallow and most of the precip is over by that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 the warm layer is low and shallow and most of the precip is over by that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 4k NAM still shows 4-5 hrs of freezing rain from TTN to HPN and NYC. Going to be a sharp cutoff North of Sussex. LHV screw job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nam is a cave to the Rgem and is 4"-8" of snow areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 the warm layer is low and shallow and most of the precip is over by that point At least .25 falls between hr 15-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z Nam says NYC doesn't go above 32f at 2m till after 12z sunday and no 40's sunday..... Nam looks like snow to sleet to some freezing drizzle for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We are going to absolutely dump for a period this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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