Rjay Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro is good. 850s stay cold along with the 540s. Probably a warm layer somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 This is a storm to use the 850-1000mb thickness, and yes it goes above 1300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 925mb temps torch. Flip to freezing rain inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The surface low moving into the lakes should fizzle completely around 0z Sunday. Dynamically I don't see any reason for it to survive. My thinking is this will look much more like an arctic frontal passage, than a SWFE. Perhaps more accurately, it's a hybrid of sorts as it transitions from the latter to the former. I can see a weak surface low wanting to form east of the cape, or near down east Maine...I'm thinking one of these two areas should take precedence. The implications of this on coastal areas is potentially significant as the wind direction will have more of a westerly component (over land). There is significant risk, in my opinion, that coastal areas surprise to the upside in terms of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 925mb temps torch. Flip to freezing rain inland Sounds like a terrible run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Sounds like a terrible run No it wasn't at all. 850's are cold and 540's are cold despite the 925 layer. If that layer is being overdone, it's all snow for the area and that's a big possibility it might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 No it wasn't at all. 850's are cold and 540's are cold despite the 925 layer. If that layer is being overdone, it's all snow for the area and that's a big possibility it might be. What are precip totals for the tri state area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 What are precip totals for the tri state area Not that high for the area. Still a solid snowfall for the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 HRDPS has 5-10 inches for nyc area and more for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 gem-lam total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The euro snow totals look like what the gfs has had for the past several runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The surface low moving into the lakes should fizzle completely around 0z Sunday. Dynamically I don't see any reason for it to survive. My thinking is this will look much more like an arctic frontal passage, than a SWFE. Perhaps more accurately, it's a hybrid of sorts as it transitions from the latter to the former. I can see a weak surface low wanting to form east of the cape, or near down east Maine...I'm thinking one of these two areas should take precedence. The implications of this on coastal areas is potentially significant as the wind direction will have more of a westerly component (over land). There is significant risk, in my opinion, that coastal areas surprise to the upside in terms of frozen precip. What about the departing high to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Still a solid snowfall for the whole area.Are we even looking at the same model? The Euro does not show this. Come on man lets be accurate. The highest total is 4" in NW Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 No it wasn't at all. 850's are cold and 540's are cold despite the 925 layer. If that layer is being overdone, it's all snow for the area and that's a big possibility it might be.Wow, we definitely have a big difference of opinion here. "All Snow" is a big possibility? Check your area soundings please.While I'm not sayng the Euro is completely accurate it can be used here to depict a few things since your comments were In Reference to the Euro run. Here are the freezing lines (surface, 925mb, 850mb and 5400m) per the Euro for the entire time period there is precip 00z, 06z and 12z. Like someone said above forget the 540's thickness for this event. Your problem for 2/3's or more of the tri-state is between the surface and 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro is good. 850s stay cold along with the 540s.Here is your text output for Brooklyn. Please define good? 1.1" of snow and then .47 of rain per 00z Euro and u can even throw in the GFS saying basically close to the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The euro snow totals look like what the gfs has had for the past several runs Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Does anyone have the Srefs?Per the 03z SREF plumes for a few select locales these were the means (avg).TTN = 3.20" of snowfall and .95 total qpf were both means EWR = 2.70" of snowfall and .79 total qpf were both means HPN = 2.11" of snowfall and .70 total qpf were both means LGA = 2.26" of snowfall and .79 total qpf were both means JFK= 1.79" of snowfall and .83 total qpf were both means ISP = 1.15" of snowfall and .91 total qpf were both means Between 03z and 06z on Sunday (local NY time 10p to 1am) all locations switch over to freezing rain and then plain rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 6z nam crushes central NJ northward 6+ easy Plus no change over all snow I disagree with your "plus no change over all snow" comment on the 6z NAM runBy 06z on Sunday (1am local time) the entire tri state area is above freezing at 925mb's (except for an extreme extreme NW Jersey sliver) and at this same time SIM Radar is still showing precip falling. How is this all snow? 925mbs forecast time 6z Sunday (1am local) Sim radar same timeframe Your mistake is looking at the below 850 Temp & Precip map and calling it all snow when it is not. Please just don't look at the blue line and think that's the r/s line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Upton covering ..all bases for Bronx as of 4:02 am says 1-5 inches ..( weird spread IMO ) why not 1-6 lol ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well I have the CMC to back me up. Not worried about 925 temps You should be, the NAM is a lot of things, a crap of a model but one thing it's really good at is sniffing out sneaky warm layers just above the surface; 900- 925 warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well I have the CMC to back me up. Not worried about 925 temps My reply was solely in reference to your 06z nam "comments". Not what model your going with now such as the CMC. Your analysis of the 6z NAM model run was incorrect. My intention is to help you understand for the next time what to look for and help stop the incorrect play by play of model information that is unfortunately frequent in this NYC forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well I have the CMC to back me up. Not worried about 925 temps The Euro and GFS also say you should also be worried about your 925mb temps. Here is your text output for Manville, NJ per the 00z Euro. 2.1" of snow on the front end and .41 of rain there after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The Euro and GFS also say you should also be worried about your 925mb temps. Here is your text output for Manville, NJ per the 00z Euro. 2.1" of snow on the front end and .41 of rain there after. image.jpg I never use GFS or Euro on short rangeThe Nam and CMC and to a degree RGEM have been spot on under 24 hr range this winter Lol we are not hitting 44 on Sunday you believe that I have a bridge to sell you in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I never use GFS or Euro on short range The Nam and CMC and to a degree RGEM have been spot on under 24 hr range this winter Lol we are not hitting 44 on Sunday you believe that I have a bridge to sell you in NY The NAM is not your friend here.. That's what I started off telling you when you thought the 6z run was crushing you. I guess then hug tight your CMC and RGEM and hope for the best. I'm not looking to argue with you just try to accurately depict what each model is showing each run... Good Luck. I hope you get more snow than rain as you expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That EURO run is way off on temps. Manville, NJ is not hitting 44 on sunday. Lol where have you been these past days? I highly doubt the city or central jersey north is hitting freezing. Especially on a SW wind with all that snow cover that way i doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think the city is going to go over freezing for a little bit. Monmouth usually is where the warm air struggles to push north. They have some 12" snowpacks there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That EURO run is way off on temps. Manville, NJ is not hitting 44 on sunday. Lol where have you been these past days? None of my replies agree with or speak to a high temperature of 44. I only posted that text output to show the potential for rain for that area in the next 24-36 hours since that poster was incorrectly not given any credence to the warmer boundary level between the surface and 925mb during the precipitation period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 By the way 6z GFS also says that everyone except the extreme corner of NW Jersey is above freezing at 925mbs by 1am local (6z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Places in VA have started snowing. With a temperature of 10 in Alleghany County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 No doubt there is WAA sno, but its coming over snowcover. Where is the torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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