IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Heavy rain? It looks fairly light to me. The storm is so weak now that I think temps will struggle to rise when precip is falling. There's not enough of a warm push because the low is so weak and heavier rates will hold the R/S south. Call it whatever you want, there is nothing worse than arguing about a rain snow line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 And also, the bust isn't always at the surface on the coast-you have to look as well at 925mb. That's what shafted the extreme south shore a little more than a year ago. I saw that the soundings looked iffy at 925mb right before 2/13/14 but shook it off because of the extreme precip rates advertised in that front end wave, but it was enough to switch us over to rain and sleet quick, and heavy rates meant nothing besides some mangled flakes here and there south of Sunrise Highway. I know that was a stronger system than this one will be, but this one screams red flags near the coast. Hopefully I'm wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The 00z RGEM doesn't shut things off until 18z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ snowto.gif Current Temps Temp.gif Stick-person-waving.gif that current temp map is way off lol. reading way to warm for north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 End of its range, but here's 1pm sat RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I dont know about this being a simply rain setup out this way, my highs already been lowered to middle-upper 30s.. might be very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 End of its range, but here's 1pm sat RAP I checked two other sources and that snow hole over Sullivan County is on all of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I thought the gfs looked pretty good....nice thump nyc south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Obviously out of range HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I thought the gfs looked pretty good....nice thump nyc south Of course you did, for your backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 There's going be a lot of ice on ground and flooding, dye top extremely cold ground. On a good note,this will be extremely awesome for ice boaters. Fresh smooth layer on salt ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Of course you did, for your backyard Yeah, but I see cliff diving like it was heavy rain and zero snow...its a nice thump .25+ of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I checked two other sources and that snow hole over Sullivan County is on all of them It's directly over my house in ulster on the wxbell rgem not Sullivan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Overall the gfs was a bit drier but colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That snow hole is likely a downsloping effect from southwest flow over the Catskills. You can see similar snow holes on that map that IL posted to the NE of the West Virginia mountains, the Poconos, and the Berkshires. One of the mets in the NW burbs forum mentioned it earlier, and that it's not usually so pronounced in a southwest flow event. I highly doubt those areas won't see any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 that current temp map is way off lol. reading way to warm for north jersey Yeah 96 --- 10:00pm Est the map prog is warmer by about 5-7 deg ---for some areas the point I wanted to make is just how far south the 32deg line sits atm lots of real estate to cover on its way back up...... Critical Thickness EST tapping the Gulf http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/tran/tran.gif?1424493016937 moisture transport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yeah 96 --- 10:00pm Est the map prog is warmer by about 5-7 deg ---for some areas the point I wanted to make is just how far south the 32deg line sits atm lots of real estate to cover on its way back up...... Critical Thickness EST ct.gif understood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z RGEM HR 27, still snow on all of LI. Not really any kind of screaming wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Best bet for start time in north jersey I have to travel from west orange to watchung and be there by 3. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Likuidsky3 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 RGEM looks to keep all of NNJ snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Likuidsky3 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Does anyone have the Srefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 -7 at folk currently and they are supposed to pour soon. Now that's epic!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro? 2-4" N&W then some ice and rain. 0.50"+ all areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro is colder and wetter. 850 line never goes above NYC at all. 540 line stays near NYC with the surface not far away. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro is colder and wetter. 850 line never goes above NYC at all. 540 line stays near NYC with the surface not far away. Great run.How about montco (NW philly burbs)?Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 2-4" N&W then some ice and rain. 0.50"+ all areas. That stinks. Was hoping for an improved run. Mid Atlantic portal seems to want to hump this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That stinks. Was hoping for an improved run. Mid Atlantic portal seems to want to hump this run Euro is good. 850s stay cold along with the 540s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro is good. 850s stay cold along with the 540s. Where is the disconnect. Isotherm post indicated it was not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That stinks. Was hoping for an improved run. Mid Atlantic portal seems to want to hump this run Jeb is explaining Jebwalks over there, good times. Looks like the I-95 corridor in general performs better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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