ILoveWinter Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NYC ends up on the NW edge of the steady snow. I dont think many (or any) models are showing that kind of solution, looks like it may be out on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The NAM and RGEM are locked in and the Euro and GGEM all support at least 0.75"+ all the way to the Sullivan County line. The Goofus is lost. Inclined to agree. GFS since it's little quasi-victory in the blizzard back in January has been quite erratic to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So we don't even switch over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 At the end of the season we need to do a post-mortem on how/why the models almost universally have been so "confused" even in the short range. Faulty data all season long? Lack of historical analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So we don't even switch over? NYC switches to rain between 00z and 06z. It's nearly the same on all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So we don't even switch over? If there's still a strong south fetch, you know the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 People can write what they want; but I can still call it trolling... I simply quoted the NWS, you can call it whatever you want. I think everyone from at least EWR south and east ends as plain rain and I'm inclined to say that the mix line ends up at least 40 miles NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Rgem close up totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Rgem close up totals If this map verified I wouldn't see a single inch imby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Even the RGEM which a lot of people are hugging, and rightfully so, changes a lot of the area to plain rain eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 If there's still a strong south fetch, you know the rest. Kind of need to wash the grime away, so as long as it accomplishes that I'm ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Inclined to agree. GFS since it's little quasi-victory in the blizzard back in January has been quite erratic to say the least. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/568514795164422144/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I simply quoted the NWS, you can call it whatever you want. I think everyone from at least EWR south and east ends as plain rain and I'm inclined to day that the mix line ends up at least 40 miles NW of NYC. Perhaps, but the models are suggesting that the period of freezing rain may be more lengthy and quite pronounced. That'll have to be watched. I think everybody gets their thump of snow. I don't really see a debate on that aspect worthwhile anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NYC switches to rain between 00z and 06z. It's nearly the same on all guidance. OK, just much less precip on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 If this map verified I wouldn't see a single inch imby lol Something is wrong with that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Inclined to agree. GFS since it's little quasi-victory in the blizzard back in January has been quite erratic to say the least. And even in that storm the GFS was like the 4 out of 10 woman in an all man's prison, it only looked good because every other model sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Rgem close up totals I think it's overdone near the coast and underdone north and west. I guess tomorrow we'll see what's right. I'd eat my right nut if the south shore usual screwzones get 4" or more from this on a strong south wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Something is wrong with that map Idk what to tell ya, it's been showing that snow hole up by me all day on the wxbell rgem snow map, ur guess is as good as mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/568514795164422144/photo/1 Yeah I saw that earlier today elsewhere. Really incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ignore the Goofus, it's completely out to lunch. We should all be snowing heavily by mid-afternoon, maybe earlier and should make it past sundown before any mixing issues. I think the ice threat has to be watched. RGEM and NAM like the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think it's overdone near the coast and underdone north and west. I guess tomorrow we'll see what's right. I'd eat my right nut if the south shore usual screwzones get 4" or more from this on a strong south wind. It seems the winds on these events always verify way weaker than the models show, I think you often get a trof axis sticking out of the weak low to the west that punches into the offshore high and makes the gradient more weak ESE vs strong south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 At the end of the season we need to do a post-mortem on how/why the models almost universally have been so "confused" even in the short range. Faulty data all season long? Lack of historical analogs?the +AO doesn't help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ignore the Goofus, it's completely out to lunch. We should all be snowing heavily by mid-afternoon, maybe earlier and should make it past sundown before any mixing issues. I think the ice threat has to be watched. RGEM and NAM like the I-80 corridor. I agree about the in situ CAD in the NW valleys, but not after a good dump of snow. People NW of I-95 should make it to 6". Those are the areas that might go to sleet/ZR for a while and end up at 34 degree drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 And even in that storm the GFS was like the 4 out of 10 woman in an all man's prison, it only looked good because every other model sucked Haha. Pretty much. I was going to use a darts analogy, but yours works. It was good with the cutoff at the NYC line but it even had to drop off significantly within 12-18 hours on the precip totals too and it did have a few zones where it was off big-time on the precip totals in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think it's overdone near the coast and underdone north and west. I guess tomorrow we'll see what's right. I'd eat my right nut if the south shore usual screwzones get 4" or more from this on a strong south wind. If there was ever a time/setup to have it happen, it has to be this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's 2-4" from the Tpk South and East followed by heavy rain. Heavy rain? It looks fairly light to me. The storm is so weak now that I think temps will struggle to rise when precip is falling. There's not enough of a warm push because the low is so weak and heavier rates will hold the R/S south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It seems the winds on these events always verify way weaker than the models show, I think you often get a trof axis sticking out of the weak low to the west that punches into the offshore high and makes the gradient more weak ESE vs strong south Yeah, like I said we'll see what happens. Whenever I see models try to print out lots of snow on the coast when a high is moving east into the Atlantic it's always a big time red flag for me. I've seen that bust many times at home. The water near the coast might be cold but not far past that it's more than warm enough for rain, and any decent fetch from there torches the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ Current Temps 10:00pm corrected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 hows that possible dude everybody has at least 1 inch on there indicated by dark gray. Or more in blue. Sent from my iPhone Not over parts of ulster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lol I doubt that'll be the final outcome. Everybody is getting a wall of heavy snow simple as that. It may or may not change to rain. The models are saying it will for the coast but I hardly believe it because of the progressive pattern. I guess even if it does it'll be for an hour or two of drizzle or light showers Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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