snow1 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So when is the snow suppose to start. Speaking general North Jersey. Next Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Great Thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 If you live on Long Island, particularly on the South shore, remember to clear your storm drains so that when the rain falls it has a place to go. I'll take it under advisement...though I don't anticipate any such need until next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 And I'd argue that an MS is pretty irrelevant to the actual job of forecasting... I got a Masters and many of the undergrads cared more and knew more about forecasting than the grads, I'd always get excited about storms, etc., and my classmates would be like, "what storm, I have to tweak this Matlab model"Exactly the discussion my colleague and I had. Too much of a focus on algorithms, and not forecasting. It's ashame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I initially thought 18Z but it may start closer to 20Z or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 RGEM and NAM in pretty strong agreement this close in is a strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow nam lol If the RGEM increases snow amounts I'll get excited. Until then , I think its just typical NAM mischief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 If the RGEM increases snow amounts I'll get excited. Until then , I think its just typical NAM mischief. RGEM is pretty much identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Here's a better close up of the 4kPretty much in line with my thinking. 2" in southern Queens, Nassau and along the LIE in Suffolk and north, 5" on the NW end of NYC, and 6" northwest of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 noon-2pm Swfe typically come earlier and more powerful than expected. I bet it's snowing in the metro area by 10-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow nam is a 3-6 inch snowfall. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow nam is a 3-6 inch snowfall. Nice.4k is 6+ for northern jers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Exactly the discussion my colleague and I had. Too much of a focus on algorithms, and not forecasting. It's ashame. Well, most problems weren't forecast problems. That said, I'll take a computer consensus over a human all day every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Rgem is really impressive. Looks like 4-6 inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The 00Z RGEM is slower advancing the R/S line in...here is 03Z...it has been coming NW slower with each run and the RGEM has been 1-2 hours too fast on this all year as I've been saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 If you live on Long Island, particularly on the South shore, remember to clear your storm drains so that when the rain falls it has a place to go. Pin It. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 FZRA accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Interesting kink in the 1024 isobar south of the city on Snowgoose RGEM map If that was to verify it would slow the surface WWA and possibility keep frozen precip longer in the city on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM/RGEM combo suggests 4-6 NYC metro. Im liking the dynamics and strong swly jet in place over very cold antecedent airmass. This has overperformer written all over it. Just my 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Latest RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 If you live on Long Island, particularly on the South shore, remember to clear your storm drains so that when the rain falls it has a place to go. Pin It. It was almost a direct quote from the Upton AFD earlier today. Here is the updated discussion. Enjoy your rain late tomorrow night out on the Island and have a beer on me .HYDROLOGY... EXPECTING A LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A HALF INCH TO INCH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH DRAINS CLOGGED BY SNOW...AS THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE RATE AT WHICH PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE AREA WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE PONDING OF WATER COULD EXPAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z gfs up to hour 12. I really think it would be good to get a little snowier solution from it. It's been very persistent in what it's spitting out. We will know shortly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Tossing the GFS hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Under 0.25" LE storm total in NW NJ, never gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Weaker storm or does it simply miss the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Tossing the GFS hard Ha. Midatlantic folks not tossing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Weaker storm or does it simply miss the area? NYC ends up on the NW edge of the steady snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Tossing the GFS hardguess it doesn't show a lot of snow iyby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ha. Midatlantic folks not tossing it The NAM and RGEM are locked in and the Euro and GGEM all support at least 0.75"+ all the way to the Sullivan County line. The Goofus is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 guess it doesn't show a lot of snow iyby It's 2-4" from the Tpk South and East followed by heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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