IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Can we please keep the snowfall totals talk in the proper thread? This is about the upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I was told not to forecast so I will just post images that I think are relevant and let the viewer decide for themselves I have nothing to prove... PNA ridge is awesome this weekend I like our chances for snow -----bigtime dm gefs-spag_npac_120_500_522_564_ht.gif DM I rode you for our surprise storm last night and you were the winning horse - please keep posting your thoughts and forecasts here....I for one appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 That was at 7:00a.m. Where did you see anything past that? Public Info Statement was from just before noon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Public Info Statement was from just before noon... That was from 7:12am. Come to the other thread. This is the weekend thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 That was at 7:00a.m. Where did you see anything past that? 3 drop it man....it don't mean ship at this point the take away here is how bad the op runs mislead the average Joe there are some on here that believe they have mad skills with reading them or broadcasting them....they don't king this-- queen that...B.S. we will have shortwaves in the pipeline this weekend with plenty of cold that is bold and should hold Track First....Snow Totals will follow we step aside this go round dm http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f144_nh.html http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f144_nh.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Doorman is like the Riddler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 LOL...Was going to say that awhile back Like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 3 drop it man....it don't mean ship at this point the take away here is how bad the op runs mislead the average Joe there are some on here that believe they have mad skills with reading them or broadcasting them....they don't king this-- queen that...B.S. we will have shortwaves in the pipeline this weekend with plenty of cold that is bold and should hold Track First....Snow Totals will follow we step aside this go round dm http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f144_nh.html http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f144_nh.html great job last night (ended with 3.5" IMBY). looking forward to your thoughts this week DM - crazy week of work should keep me from getting too invested one way or another, better that way.. keep up the great work, many appreciate it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Any news on the euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Any news on the euro ensembles? Very similar to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Very similar to the OP.okay thanks yanks. And the waiting game begins... See yall later Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Very similar to the OP.You beat me to it lol. Mixed messages on the GEFS though, in the New England forum, they said they were not robust with cold air at all for this weekend's event, but someone here said they were cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 You beat me to it lol. Mixed messages on the GEFS though, in the New England forum, they said they were not robust with cold air at all for this weekend's event, but someone here said they were cold? Most individuals are big rain makers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 HPC's thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I may have been conservative for this last storm, which may have come off as negative and for that I apologize to all readers, but after catching up and looking at a few of the 00z models, Im VERY confident this storm will trend colder. that GFS run is dangerously close to a MECS, and the seasonal trend on these overrunners has been south, this looks to be in a fairly good spot this far out, lets see what the 18z GFS does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 So far it looks like a rain event for Northern New Jersey? Thing could chance millions of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 So far it looks like a rain event for Northern New Jersey? Thing could chance millions of times. this is fine, I would rather see the mix line where it is this far out, remember how often does a run 4-5 days out actually verify?...this will shift for better or worse, just gotta let it play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 So far it looks like a rain event for Northern New Jersey? Thing could chance millions of times.i doubt we'll see rain for northern jersey. Too cold snow to ice bigger possibility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 True 4 to 5 days out is a long time. Its like trying to predict the first rain drop when spring start, like how fast it will drop and what angel including location. Thats a bit extreme but you get my point xD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 i doubt we'll see rain for northern jersey. Too cold snow to ice bigger possibility!If the low does what the GFS and Euro say it will, it will go to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 If the low does what the GFS and Euro say it will, it will go to raini doubt it. I doubt they are right. I think the boundary sets up south of us and we snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 i doubt it. I doubt they are right. I think the boundary sets up south of us and we snow Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Why?i think the cold weather plus all the extra snow cover even in the south now will only make the boundary move up so much. I think it settles south of us because of that! Unless we can have a very strong low that will break the boundary and cut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 i doubt it. I doubt they are right. I think the boundary sets up south of us and we snowSo ignore the operational GFS and Euro and their ensembles and go with the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 i think the cold weather plus all the extra snow cover even in the south now will only make the boundary move up so much. I think it settles south of us because of that! Unless we can have a very strong low that will break the boundary and cut!It's a common misconception that lows never cut over snow cover or plow into a cold arctic dome at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 So ignore the operational GFS and Euro and their ensembles and go with the GGEM?i would go with ggem for now until and if ggem caves. But it's so early in the game it could change and probably will. I think I would also ignore the ggem and go with a euro/ggem blend only because it makes more sense. I don't think there'll be a strong low cutting though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It's a common misconception that lows never cut over snow cover or plow into a cold arctic dome at the surfaceeven if it cuts It could be a good thump of snow to crippling ice east of the Appalachians mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Why? This is will be a front end thump and by the time the BL warms most of the damage will be done . There is just too much cold air in front of this , to it`s N and to it`s `W that should push this the way of the pattern . The models don`t see low cold air until its in it`s face , we saw that 2 weeks ago . It does not like to fully rain in NEG EPO cold confluent patterns in mid winter . There is to much HP slipping through the lakes . You already saw how far the Euro corrected from 12z yesterday wait a few days and see where this trends to . It should trend to the pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 already major differences in the 18z out to 00z Saturday...low is position well south of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 My preliminary opinion on this is it doesn't cut and ends up a SECS. But its way too early right now so it is definitely subjected to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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