wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 There tired of winter lol where would I start a thread about weather stations to buy these days? Curious if anyone has any suggestions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I find it so odd that so many of the Mets who have been running with high totals on events all winter are going fairly low on this one. I guess burned one too many times. That means busting high this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Because there is open water south of Jamaica Bay? All the way to the Caribbean - some folks might benefit from watching a hemispheric water vapor loop, showing air traveling hundreds, if not thousands of miles. It can get plenty warm here with the right flow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I find it so odd that so many of the Mets who have been running with high totals on events all winter are going fairly low on this one. I guess burned one too many times. Probably because it's such a weird set-up. If I were a met I wouldn't want to ride a high snowfall forecast on a weak low coming up west of us with tons of WAA precip. It's way outside the comfort zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NW of I-95 should have a decent snow event, 4-6" or so, but close to the coast, especially the south shore probably won't get above 2-3" at most before cold rain. Remember that even though the water near shore is cold, the water beyond that is still more than warm enough for rain and there will be more than enough southerly fetch. There could be quite the difference in snow totals over White Plains vs. my home town. My call right now is Long Beach gets 1.5", White Plains 7". Central Park might eke out 5" if there's enough snow up front but 3" if front end snow is lax. So I'd go with 5" on the northern end of the Bronx, 2" over the Rockaways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Those amounts are the same as my official forecast for DSNY. Good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z 2.5km Canadian, I think this is the right general idea Snow Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 At 24 hours the NAM has .25+ for almost everyone and .50 west of the city, depending on how warm the next panel is this looks like a very good front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 0 z nam bombs away for NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Every single nam run for the last 2 days has increased snow totals....I would say from somerset/hunterdon/union north, 6"+ looks good; also a colder run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 nam changes over nw areas around hr 27, would be warning criteria snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Every single nam run for the last 2 days has increased snow totals....I would say from somerset/hunterdon/union north, 6"+ looks good; also a colder run... yea, looks good. waiting for total qpf on ncep, but a wet run again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z 2.5km Canadian, I think this is the right general idea Snow 18zgemlamsnow.gif Rain 18zgemlamrain.gif LOL at those totals from TTN down through ILG and western Baltimore, thats like 12-14 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 yea, looks good. waiting for total qpf on ncep, but a wet run again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 LOL at those totals from TTN down through ILG and western Baltimore, thats like 12-14 inches LOL...I wasn't even looking at that, I was saying more in terms of rain/snow line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 0 z nam totals from NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Obs thread has been started for this storm. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45810-february-21-22-storm-observations/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 A friend and I were discussing Upton recently and surmising what may be going on and he came up with what I think is a pretty good explaination. Going through the atmospheric sciences classes, we both found that they are beginning to focus very heavily on computer programming. Undergrad focused more on this than the forecasting side we found, though the science side was also heavily weighed upon as well. Additionally, Upton now requires a master's degree to work for them as a forecaster and consequently the canidates become further indoctrinated with computer programming skills. Now while the program trains you very proficiently in both the science and computer programming aspects, they do not teach how to apply this knowledge to forecasting anymore. We were being taught to find the problems within the algorithms on the computer models, however, not to apply the science of what the computer models are doing incorrectly. We both believe that this is where Upton is having issues. Great post. The November storm they busted tremendously for my area. I was in their 10-14 range which mached with most of the models that had algorithms using 10:1. I ended with 4. It was as if climatology was never taken into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yep knew it, NAM extends 6+" totals union north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I find it so odd that so many of the Mets who have been running with high totals on events all winter are going fairly low on this one. I guess burned one too many times.It's the boy who cried wolf at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 yea, looks good. waiting for total qpf on ncep, but a wet run again What the deal with the big drop off for QPF in far NE PA tucking into NY state. Looks like higher amounts to the north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nam 4k looks great even for NYC Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 A friend and I were discussing Upton recently and surmising what may be going on and he came up with what I think is a pretty good explaination. Going through the atmospheric sciences classes, we both found that they are beginning to focus very heavily on computer programming. Undergrad focused more on this than the forecasting side we found, though the science side was also heavily weighed upon as well. Additionally, Upton now requires a master's degree to work for them as a forecaster and consequently the canidates become further indoctrinated with computer programming skills. Now while the program trains you very proficiently in both the science and computer programming aspects, they do not teach how to apply this knowledge to forecasting anymore. We were being taught to find the problems within the algorithms on the computer models, however, not to apply the science of what the computer models are doing incorrectly. We both believe that this is where Upton is having issues. That would be one bizarre policy, I know the NWS prefers master degrees but its not usually a requirement. I guess any office though can go about selecting people their own way. That sounds like someone has a bug up their ass if they really will only hire a Masters degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 4k still has the icing signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Here's a better close up of the 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That would be one bizarre policy, I know the NWS prefers master degrees but its not usually a requirement. I guess any office though can go about selecting people their own way. That sounds like someone has a bug up their ass if they really will only hire a Masters degree. And I'd argue that an MS is pretty irrelevant to the actual job of forecasting... I got a Masters and many of the undergrads cared more and knew more about forecasting than the grads, I'd always get excited about storms, etc., and my classmates would be like, "what storm, I have to tweak this Matlab model" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So when is the snow suppose to start. Speaking general North Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So when is the snow suppose to start. Speaking general North Jersey.noon-2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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