UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The 18z rgem snowmap is pretty similar to the 12z anyway, I'll post in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Toss the GFS and ride rgem. Rgem is much better at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Shifted the heavier precip in the LHV east about 20 miles.. Just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Imagine if certain people here only saw 2 inches? It would be intolerable Correct! 2 inches on this one and Im on the ledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Top is 12z Bottom is 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Extreme eastern long island doesn't see much snow on the 18z rgem but that's about the only big difference, a couple of lollies of 6+ in Jersey too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Top is 12z Bottom is 18z Talk about identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How often do we say westchester has the potential to jackpot lol For our area that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Top is 12z Bottom is 18z Yea....sign me up for this please. I can't risk something going wrong and having to deal with 1.6 or such Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 lol at that spot in the mid hudson valley with zip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Someone said the RGEM was consistent since 12z- and it is for NYC. 95 corridor- another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 lol at that spot in the mid hudson valley with zip. HEY!!! that's dangerously close to my house! Are you being biased?!?!?!?!! Your praying for rain for me aren't you?!? Lol. Jk obviously, but seriously that sh+* is close to my house so don't kid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 well it looks like the bronx gets it good for the 2nd time in a week..most snow maps currently have us at 4-7 inches across the borough more as you head immediately just north and west of the cross bronx(i95),not bad at all id say considering the models are now starting to limit plain rain until the end of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Hi Res Nam is actually starting to show more SW winds than from due South. This would have huge implications for LI and the immediate metro area and needs to be watched How so? South west being good or bad? I'd imagine south west means less of a warm up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How so? South west being good or bad? I'd imagine south west means less of a warm up? I would think that southwest winds would be better for frozen precip because winds would be coming from snow covered ground as opposed to warmer ocean waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 You guys up north and to the west are expecting way to much. GFS to me looks the same. 2-4", 4-6" in some spots. Once again Warren County gets the shaft on this run. Wouldn't be surpised if that were to occur. i think union gets 1-2 topps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah after asking,I read answers that well answered it lol. Channel 7 shows like all of northern long island getting 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How so? South west being good or bad? I'd imagine south west means less of a warm up?The sw winds at the surface would be a fetch over land rather than from the ocean and more importantly not from the Gulf Stream region. The SW trajectory would mean the wind not only has more friction imposed on it from topography, but it likewise has to transverse cold land and only the shallow water close to the island. Therefore NYC and LI would likely remain a couple degrees cooler. Combine that with the current Arctic cold in the area and temperatures will be that much harder to rise to and above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The sw winds at the surface would be a fetch over land rather than from the ocean and more importantly not from the Gulf Stream region. The SW trajectory would mean the wind not only has more friction imposed on it from topography, but it likewise has to transverse cold land and only the shallow water close to the island. Therefore NYC and LI would likely remain a couple degrees cooler. Combine that with the current Arctic cold in the area and temperatures will be that much harder to rise to and above freezing. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The sw winds at the surface would be a fetch over land rather than from the ocean and more importantly not from the Gulf Stream region. The SW trajectory would mean the wind not only has more friction imposed on it from topography, but it likewise has to transverse cold land and only the shallow water close to the island. Therefore NYC and LI would likely remain a couple degrees cooler. Combine that with the current Arctic cold in the area and temperatures will be that much harder to rise to and above freezing. Agree, if that is indeed the case in the end. Also, in my view, ocean temps are not cold enough to prevent the changeover. However, I do think they are cold enough to act as more of a buffer then they would in say DEC. At least as far as surface temps go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Agree, if that is indeed the case in the end. Also, in my view, ocean temps are not cold enough to prevent the changeover. However, I do think they are cold enough to act as more of a buffer then they would in say DEC. At least as far as surface temps go. It is my understanding that the ocean is above normal warm, to the point that it is affecting migratory fish patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z GFS snowfall amounts for select cities using Bufkit's maximum temperature in profile algorithm: BDR: 2.5" BOS: 2.2" EWR: 2.7" HPN: 4.2" ISP: 1.8" JFK: 4.8" LGA: 2.9" PHL: 4.4" POU: 4.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It is my understanding that the ocean is above normal warm, to the point that it is affecting migratory fish patterns. Ehhh what? Near shore waters the ones we care about in this case are about as cold as they have been in 20 years at any point. Very close to shore as in a couple miles they are in the low 30s (remember salt water freezes at 28) 10-50 miles out mid to upper 30s and all the way to the north Gulf Stream wall (150+ miles out) upper 30s to low 40s This is going to have a huge impact on what happens on the south shore of the western island. Uptons map would work great for a November/December storm. Not a once every 20 year cold ocean storm. Not sure what they are thinking lately. Ups down and downs up out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It is my understanding that the ocean is above normal warm, to the point that it is affecting migratory fish patterns. Not close to shore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ehhh what? Near shore waters the ones we care about in this case are about as cold as they have been in 20 years at any point. Very close to shore as in a couple miles they are in the low 30s (remember salt water freezes at 28) 10-50 miles out mid to upper 30s and all the way to the north Gulf Stream wall (150+ miles out) upper 30s to low 40s This is going to have a huge impact on what happens on the south shore of the western island. Uptons map would work great for a November/December storm. Not a once every 20 year cold ocean storm. Not sure what they are thinking lately. Ups down and downs up out there A friend and I were discussing Upton recently and surmising what may be going on and he came up with what I think is a pretty good explaination. Going through the atmospheric sciences classes, we both found that they are beginning to focus very heavily on computer programming. Undergrad focused more on this than the forecasting side we found, though the science side was also heavily weighed upon as well. Additionally, Upton now requires a master's degree to work for them as a forecaster and consequently the canidates become further indoctrinated with computer programming skills. Now while the program trains you very proficiently in both the science and computer programming aspects, they do not teach how to apply this knowledge to forecasting anymore. We were being taught to find the problems within the algorithms on the computer models, however, not to apply the science of what the computer models are doing incorrectly. We both believe that this is where Upton is having issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ehhh what? Near shore waters the ones we care about in this case are about as cold as they have been in 20 years at any point. Very close to shore as in a couple miles they are in the low 30s (remember salt water freezes at 28) 10-50 miles out mid to upper 30s and all the way to the north Gulf Stream wall (150+ miles out) upper 30s to low 40s This is going to have a huge impact on what happens on the south shore of the western island. Uptons map would work great for a November/December storm. Not a once every 20 year cold ocean storm. Not sure what they are thinking lately. Ups down and downs up out there Agreed. But just today I read a fisheries scientist talking about how much warmer the Atlantic is, and it is likely causing fluke populations to drift further north. I guess he means over an entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 A friend and I were discussing Upton recently and surmising what may be going on and he came up with what I think is a pretty good explaination. Going through the atmospheric sciences classes, we both found that they are beginning to focus very heavily on computer programming. Undergrad focused more on this than the forecasting side we found, though the science side was also heavily weighed upon as well. Additionally, Upton now requires a master's degree to work for them as a forecaster and consequently the canidates become further indoctrinated with computer programming skills. Now while the program trains you very proficiently in both the science and computer programming aspects, they do not teach how to apply this knowledge to forecasting anymore. We were being taught to find the problems within the algorithms on the computer models, however, not to apply the science of what the computer models are doing incorrectly. We both believe that this is where Upton is having issues. Interesting discussion. Can be seen in other fields as well. I remember a friend whose doc told him his labs and scans were fine, but he looked bad and he might be in kidney failure. He was. That comes from experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Interesting discussion. Can be seen in other fields as well. I remember a friend whose doc told him his labs and scans were fine, but he looked bad and he might be in kidney failure. He was. That comes from experience. Very good analogy. And very applicable here. When experience tells you early in the season it's very hard to snow on the south shore and you see a marginal setup but a forecasts are for snow you just know it will not. This is the inverse. Very cold water with a SW flow and 850s fairly uniform across the region early in the game why does it snow in NYC and not western Long Island. I say it does and I'm 99% certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Agreed. But just today I read a fisheries scientist talking about how much warmer the Atlantic is, and it is likely causing fluke populations to drift further north. I guess he means over an entire season. He means the waters offs shore closer to the gulf stream...there a lot warmer and I to didn't believe it till I saw a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I find it so odd that so many of the Mets who have been running with high totals on events all winter are going fairly low on this one. I guess burned one too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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