PB GFI Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 JAMAICA BAY IS 100% FROZEN. Why would a southerly flow affect southern Brooklyn and SI? S flow will pass over open water at some point . S flow warms all BL s to a point. AG i think there is 4 in Brooklyn And S shore of Queens with close to 5 in SI and the park with 6 in the Bronx . If you are on a S facing shore you will change faster than the N shores of Nassau county or KLGA will . Look for 6 in those spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Amazing how it got down to 2 in the city today and it'll be "raining" sunday am. But i honestly think it will just a snow sleet event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Classic Goofus run, don't even waste your time. It's dry and warm.Typical 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Upton has 6" for LGA and 2" for JFK. I'm just saying that I don't think this is that type of storm. I'd go with 2-4" or 3-5" and be done with it for NYC. The surface freezing line hangs right over Queens which might explain the sharp cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Likuidsky3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just got WWA for Eastern Passaic county. 2-5" with tenth of an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How about posting a map so that everyone can see where they liveSame as 12z. LHV JP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Same as 12z. LHV JP Check out that snow hole up by me lmao.. I would be so mad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This gfs better not be what happens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Same as 12z. LHV JP Because that is the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Typical 18z gfs The 12z was a crappy solution for us too. The gfs has been unwavering with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Because that is the 12z Yea my bad just realised I must hit the wrong one, I'll post the 18z I deleted it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This gfs better not be what happens....18z gfs loves to do this, at 0z it will be different. They might as well get rid of its 18z runs, allways garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just FYI, in the model times thread we have listed the time conversions between UTC and EST. just found that. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The 12z was a crappy solution for us too. The gfs has been unwavering with thisIf it does it again at 0z then I'll be a little concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The 12z was a crappy solution for us too. The gfs has been unwavering with this certainly a bit of a worry, but hard to go against the RGEM-usually deadly within 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'll post 18z rgem snowmap once it pops up, it's a little delayed on wxbell that's why I accidentally posted the 12z cause that's what is still the newest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 There is a reason why the GFS is listed under mid-range modeling on most paid sites. I wouldn't totally discard it but it's definitely an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This storm is going to kill Anthony. He's in a really bad spot for this one. How? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 There is a reason why the GFS is listed under mid-range modeling on most paid sites. I wouldn't totally discard it but it's definitely an outlier.If it's right, it would be the most epic coup I can ever think of less than a day before an event. It would go down in history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Rgem is still great for nyc. I doubt we warm up big. Ocean temps are frigid, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How? Even if you stay all snow or mostly snow you're going to end up with far less than areas 40-50 miles to your West. And I think you hang around 33-34F for most of the event. Ratios will be putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The gfs verifying would disgust me as much as anyone on here. That being said....I notice a tendency for many posters to overweight the models that give us a good solution and underweight the ones that don't show us what we wanna see. That also being said...I cannot even deal with the gfs solution verifying...so Im throwing it out too ( or at least underweighting it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gfs is 2-4 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Rgem is still great for nyc. I doubt we warm up big. Ocean temps are frigid, ? They're still above freezing, and further offshore, WELL above. Gulf Stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The gfs verifying would disgust me as much as anyone on here. That being said....I notice a tendency for many posters to overweight the models that give us a good solution and underweight the ones that don't show us what we wanna see. That also being said...I cannot even deal with the gfs solution verifying...so Im throwing it out too ( or at least underweighting it) Ur catching on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If it's right, it would be the most epic coup I can ever think of less than a day before an event. It would go down in historyNot even close to being close to being close, it's not like every model shows a foot and GFS an inch. It's a bit less for us than the NAM and much better for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 gfS looks very similar to last run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 As small as Union County is, they have 3 different ranges of snow amounts. Probably due to elevation changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 You guys up north and to the west are expecting way to much. GFS to me looks the same. 2-4", 4-6" in some spots. Once again Warren County gets the shaft on this run. Wouldn't be surpised if that were to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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