Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 take the under on temps tomorrow. no brainer forkyfork As a lesson...you say take the under on temps tomorrow because we start the day at 10 degrees or less and have snow cover in almost all directions? Any other reasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hot off the press, new upton map Was just gonns post this lol, they actual increase totals for some yet decrease some of our point and click forcastes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 WSW issued for Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yea Baby!. Looks that stripe over my house! Heavy Heavy Snow Baby! Hot off the press, new upton map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wwa up from Upton 3-5 nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Winter Weather Advisory 3-5" for N NJ/NYC; Think that will be converted to a WS Warning, tomorrow but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This storm is going to kill Anthony. He's in a really bad spot for this one. I think the warmth is overdone. Jamaica Bay is fully frozen over and the ocean surrounding LI is also frozen. No reason for such a tight gradient. It's not that type of storm, despite what the srefs and nam show. South winds will not affect the immediate shores of NYC (south Brooklyn, SI, south Queens) like a regular southerly flow storm would. Ride the Rgem until proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 forkyfork As a lesson...you say take the under on temps tomorrow because we start the day at 10 degrees or less and have snow cover in almost all directions? Any other reasons? That and also models sometimes over do temps IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If you live on Long Island, particularly on the South shore, remember to clear your storm drains so that when the rain falls it has a place to go. HYDROLOGY...THERE IS THE PROBABILITY OF FROM 2/3 TO 1 1/4 INCHES OF LIQUIDEQUIVALENT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF THIS WILLFALL IN A FROZEN OR FREEZING FORM...LIMITING THE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT.HOWEVER...OVER EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND S NEW LONDON COUNTY THEREIS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITHDRAINS CLOGGED BY SNOW...AS THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL FALL MAINLYAS RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE RATE AT WHICH PRECIPITATIONWILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE AREA WHICHCOULD EXPERIENCE PONDING OF WATER COULD EXPAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 WWA up home in ulster for 4-6 I'm guessing the only reason Orange County is a WSW is for potentially .10" of ice cause totals are the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Precisely my point though brother. Yes the mid levels are warm, but SW surface winds negates the very warm fetch from the Gulf Stream and turns the fetch from mostly land and the colder shallow waters closer to the coast. Surface temperatures will struggle that much more to get above freezing. It's a light S flow and the BL will be starting in a hole tomorrow AM so you are able to precip in a colder sector longer. The models keep getting colder at the surface and in the mid levels. The highest 925 s at the park on the euro by hour 42 are 0 . The high res NAM is now 33 for a max . And the RGEM which was the 1st to this is the colder. All of the other models are coming to the colder solution. UPTONS 4 to 6 at KNYC looks spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 They really dropped amounts for the Island. Even my house is on the border of 2-3". And for the love of dog, can we stop hotlinking the NWS maps? These threads make no sense later because the hotlinked image changes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Prediction. Most of LI and southern NYC sees the same as EWR and KNYC/KLGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's a light S flow and the BL will be starting in a hole tomorrow AM so you are able to precip in a colder sector longer. The models keep getting colder at the surface and in the mid levels. The highest 925 s at the park on the euro by hour 42 are 0 . The high res NAM is now 33 for a max . And the RGEM which was the 1st to this is the colder. All of the other models are coming to the colder solution. UPTONS 4 to 6 at KNYC looks spot on. JAMAICA BAY IS 100% FROZEN. Why would a southerly flow affect southern Brooklyn and SI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Here's uptons map sorting out warnings/advisories/etc. Purple advisory, turquoise blue watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think the warmth is overdone. Jamaica Bay is fully frozen over and the ocean surrounding LI is also frozen. No reason for such a tight gradient. It's not that type of storm, despite what the srefs and nam show. South winds will not affect the immediate shores of NYC (south Brooklyn, SI, south Queens) like a regular southerly flow storm would. Ride the Rgem until proven wrong. Even if the BL stays below freezing, that's not the issue. The 925mb warm punch makes it all the way to the base of the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 As small as Union County is, they have 3 different ranges of snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Prediction. Most of LI and southern NYC sees the same as EWR and KNYC/KLGA. I don't think anyone is arguing that. What are they 15 miles apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 JAMAICA BAY IS 100% FROZEN. Why would a southerly flow affect southern Brooklyn and SI? Because there is open water south of Jamaica Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Winter Weather Advisory is up for my area for 2-4" of snow and less then a tenth of an inch of ice from 12:00 pm tomorrow to 1:00 am Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't think anyone is arguing that. What are they 15 miles apart? around 20 miles (newark is a big city) , I wouldn't include EWR in that prediction. EWR is getting more than Southern NYC and LI. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 1/10th of Ice 3-5" of Snow NNJ. Upton FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 1/10th of Ice 3-5" of Snow NNJ. Upton FYI.Just to be clear, that's NE NJ only. Interior and NW NJ are 4-6" and 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't think anyone is arguing that. What are they 15 miles apart? Upton has 6" for LGA and 2" for JFK. I'm just saying that I don't think this is that type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z Rgem held serve. Cold and 4"-6" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Thank you Just FYI, in the model times thread we have listed the time conversions between UTC and EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Because there is open water south of Jamaica Bay? And? Sandy Hook buoy is at an astounding 29.5 degrees right now. Fire Island buoy, 30 nautical miles offshore, is also an amazing 35 degrees. Light southerly winds will not warm up the shorelines of the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Classic Goofus run, don't even waste your time. It's dry and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Rgem does not have less for south shores of NYC. Makes much more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z Rgem held serve. Cold and 4"-6" for NYC. How about posting a map so that everyone can see where they live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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