Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 17z - NOON wow....much earlier than I thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 some people might think UTC time is standard and doesn't change with daylight savings, just giving out some info Yea. I appreciate it. I wasn't sure myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Should be over between 2-4AM with the peak between 5PM and Midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 As shown in that NAM-HIRES map, I believe the freezing line where be where the heaviest precip would occur. Any chance of heavy sleet mets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Likuidsky3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does anyone actually look at WRF-ARW or WRF-NMM?? Seem to be pretty good and nailed the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sullivan is BGM, Orange is Upton though Oh right, yes, still, there are places in Orange County that are a lot further away from Upton than Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yea. I appreciate it. I wasn't sure myself I work for the military and still have to look up the times lol, https://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYtime.php Noaas chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Should be over between 2-4AM with the peak between 5PM and Midnight.Yea, around 2am sunday it should be all over, we wake up to the sun shining sunday morning I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I work for the military and still have to look up the times lol, https://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYtime.php Noaas chart What branch brother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does anyone actually look at WRF-ARW or WRF-NMM?? Seem to be pretty good and nailed the last storm.Good question, isentropic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 As I suspected, there is some freezing rain in there, especially NW of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Because being under a watch automatically means it's going to snow more there In all seriousness, I never understood how Sullivan County could be part of the Upton CWA while Monmouth County falls under Mt. Holly. Always thought they should just give all of NJ to Mt. Holly and have Upton just do NY and southern CT. Que?? Last I checked Sullivan county is part of BGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What branch brother? I'm actually a firefighter at West Point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Good question, isentropic? NMM and ARW outputs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What I don't get on that map is how is it icing and under or just at 32 in BWI. While I'm above 32 mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 NMM and ARW outputs Wow, with temps for 90% of the storm not above 32 or so north of Mercer/Somerset and 0.75"-1.0" LE, high impact storm incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 As I suspected, there is some freezing rain in there, especially NW of the cityGood call, it looks ugly for travel just after midnight tomorrow, very ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yea you guys should make out well, especially west of NYC into parts of NWNJ, for some reason that precip intensity in NNJ doesn't push into New York too well, I'm barely .40" up here lolWhat you're seeing there is the loss of the dynamics of the IL. West point FF; an honor to make the acquaintance sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The 4k NAM is showing 0.50"+ ICE in parts of NE NJ, will post when final graphic is available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What you're seeing there is the loss of the dynamics of the IL. West point FF; an honor to make the acquaintance sir. TY same here, Upton just decreased my point and click totals actually less than 1" on Saturday and 2-4" sat night.. Not sure if I buy it entirely but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Lee Goldberg is saying 1-3 city and south...3-6 north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 take the under on temps tomorrow. no brainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 You've been warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does anyone actually look at WRF-ARW or WRF-NMM?? Seem to be pretty good and nailed the last storm. http://hp6.wright-weather.com/eastnmm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Hi Res Nam is actually starting to show more SW winds than from due South. This would have huge implications for LI and the immediate metro area and needs to be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The 4k NAM is showing 0.50"+ ICE in parts of NE NJ, will post when final graphic is available. I'll sell. I think if anyone sees the ice, it is NW, not NE. I'd put the ice bullseye on the border of Warren & Morris counties in west-central NJ. With the high sliding off the coast, I think sfc temps get above freezing further east. Meanwhile aloft, I think upper level warming occurs closer to the trough axis, which is west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Hi Res Nam is actually starting to show more SW winds than from due South. This would have huge implications for LI and the immediate metro area and needs to be watched The warmest it gets now in NYC is 33-34F but the mid-levels still warm so it's either rain or freezing rain at the end depending on surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hot off the press, new upton map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This storm is going to kill Anthony. He's in a really bad spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The warmest it gets now in NYC is 33-34F but the mid-levels still warm so it's either rain or freezing rain at the end depending on surface temps.Precisely my point though brother. Yes the mid levels are warm, but SW surface winds negates the very warm fetch from the Gulf Stream and turns the fetch from mostly land and the colder shallow waters closer to the coast. Surface temperatures will struggle that much more to get above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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