UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 it's the nam, you have to chop by at least 25% for the real totals. - WSW now for eastern PA and northwestern NJ Yes its the NAM , a model, not a neglected object. Even if thats a major snowfall for that WV area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Philly just issued Winter Storm Watches for Mercer/Somerset north...4-6" and some ice 5-7 for Sussex County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm so happy to finally be in the area that stands the best odds of receiving the most snow URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 330 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 ...A QUICK MOVING WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... NJZ008>010-015-PAZ070-071-101>106-211000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0005.150221T1700Z-150222T1100Z/ MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY- EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... TRENTON...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD... WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN... NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE... DOYLESTOWN 330 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW, WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AND IT COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. AS SOME WARMER AIR MOVES IN, THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SOME RAIN BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING SUNDAY. * IMPACTS..HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY, THEN RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && Congrats, I'm still waiting for my turn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Uptons forecast has about 2-6" for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If the Nam is correct in reality we would see 31-33F with heavy snow and the changeover would occur after the heavy precip shuts off. It would also easily be over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I would expect that Essex County/Union Line , and run west of it. North of it I think where the JP'S will be, and west of it will probably get the most icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 WSW for philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 New map out of mt holly pushes 4-6 to 95 now.. Don't tell orangecountywx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 After the rgem comes in, upton will probably issue a winter weather advisory for the nyc metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Huge upside bust potential. An hour delay in taint could he a 2" difference. Yeah they'll be substantial WAA but winds out of the SW will be coming over snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 New map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Great turn of events! Thuis was a rain storm not to long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 well middlesex is advisory, but i think they still get about the same as mercer county . prob 4 or 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 New map out of mt holly pushes 4-6 to 95 now.. Don't tell orangecountywx Upton hasn't changed their maps yet, I wonder what they'll do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm still very concerned about a 3-5 hour period of moderate icing. I think the low level cold holds on tightly while 925mb temps creep above freezing after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Like all the other guidance, the changever begins around 00z and is complete by 05z except for Sullivan County. Does 00z equate to midnight eastern time?....or is it 5am eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 well middlesex is advisory, but i think they still get about the same as mercer county . prob 4 or 5 inches They are very close its possible they'll upgrade depending on upcoming model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Watch Middlessex find a way to JP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does 00z equate to midnight eastern time?....or is it 5am eastern? 00z is 8pm most of the year, 7pm while we are in standard time (now) GMT less 4-5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does 00z equate to midnight eastern time?....or is it 5am eastern? 00z is 7PM. 10z is 5AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does 00z equate to midnight eastern time?....or is it 5am eastern?The snow starts around noon tomorrow, over and done in the early morning hours of sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 00z is 7PM. 10z is 5AM Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 The snow starts around noon tomorrow, over and done in the early morning hours of sunday Closer to 3-4pm than noon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 00z is 7PM. 10z is 5AM And those number will increase by an hour when we hit daylight savings for those that don't know 00z will become 8pm etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Closer to 3-4pm than noon... 17z - NOON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Likuidsky3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 New map I would think UPTON includes those NENJ counties to 4-6" as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 And those number will increase by an hour when we hit daylight savings for those that don't know 00z will become 8pm etc ahh..ya..ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Because being under a watch automatically means it's going to snow more there In all seriousness, I never understood how Sullivan County could be part of the Upton CWA while Monmouth County falls under Mt. Holly. Always thought they should just give all of NJ to Mt. Holly and have Upton just do NY and southern CT. Sullivan is BGM, Orange is Upton though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ahh..ya..ty some people might think UTC time is standard and doesn't change with daylight savings, just giving out some info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I would think UPTON includes those NENJ counties to 4-6" as well?Yes, they like to coordinate with mt holly. Unless the rgem shows something crazy, I think they go for 4-6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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