North and West of Town Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not sure if this is the right forum, but we unfortunately have a first birthday to go to in Long Valley for Saturday at 3. (travelling from MMU to Long Valley and then back.) What's the timeframe looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not sure if this is the right forum, but we unfortunately have a first birthday to go to in Long Valley for Saturday at 3. (travelling from MMU to Long Valley and then back.) What's the timeframe looking like? Snow beginning around noon and the storm should be out of the region by the early morning hours on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Snow beginning around noon and the storm should be out of the region by the early morning hours on Sunday. Thanks. I know that there was talk of it coming in fast and furious on the front end (Saturday afternoon); I was wondering if that's still the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Thanks. I know that there was talk of it coming in fast and furious on the front end (Saturday afternoon); I was wondering if that's still the idea. yea. Don't get caught out on the road. Wall of snow, blinding snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 At this point, I think a 2-4" call is good for the city and suburbs (city closer to the 2 or 3, far western suburbs closer to 4). As you head S & W amounts go higher to 3-5" into EPA and some will get 6"+ probably in parts of PA. Philly I'm thinking more like 2-3. Overall a wet snow that gets heaviest before changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z Nam bringing the early heavbier precip to more north/central nj thru hr 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam is coming in with a big thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 big hit nw nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam is coming in with a big thump MAP?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow, NAM from Middlesex/Somerset/Hunterdon north is 0.7"-1.0" all or mostly snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 mod/heavy snow over much on north and central nj at hour 30, at hour 33 precip is very heavy but based on 925 temps looks like only far nw nj stays snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm going with 3-5" from TTN to MMU, 2-4" for HPN, EWR and LGA and then 1-3" for SWF and ISP. 0.05" to 0.10" of ice from TTN to MMU and then about 0.25" to 0.50" of rain for all areas except SWF. I think the system dries out some as you move northeast due to weaker WAA and I think a lot of precip is wasted on poor ratio snow and or a mix. Ill put that 3-5" for EWR area, LGA 2-4". We typically do way better than NYC with these kind of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 most places in the stay likely end with rain/crap/slush the last 2-4 hours less the further north u are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Map looks right, 6"+ from Hunterdon, N/C Somerset, Essex county North... Trend continues for a snowier solution every model run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well that's ur snow bomb run of the nam from city-west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Couple inches from nyc west on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well that's ur snow bomb run of the nam from city-west Knew that would happen eventually. Does it with every storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Accumulating precip is basically over by this point, here's a better map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam is sort of your dynamic bomb where heavy precip slows down warming. It'll have to be monitored even though it's the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I thought the snow map looked different because I had looked late last night or early this morning. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That's 4-8" NW of the city before any thoughts of a changeover. 850's never make it NW of EWR. Warm layer appears to be from 925mb and points below. Probably a really bad freezing rain signal after a heavy thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 5" + Northern Middlessex, Union county, Essex county north. NWNJ as well per NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That's 4-8" NW of the city before any thoughts of a changeover. 850's never make it NW of EWR. Warm layer appears to be from 925mb and points below. Probably a really bad freezing rain signal after a heavy thumping. looks like 8-12 for the interior. Ah Shucks is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I really would not think TTN gets more than MMU. PHL probably gets sliced. Northwest of philly will do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Man that map shows 20" + in parts of WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Also compared to current radar soundings out west, most models didn't have that line of precip dropping out of the Michigan area till much later, and it's currently there now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Man that map shows 20" + in parts of WV. it's the nam, you have to chop by at least 25% for the real totals. - WSW now for eastern PA and northwestern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Philly just issued Winter Storm Watches for Mercer/Somerset north...4-6" and some ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18 z nam totals. Looks like it will be tough to mis the storm. Precip and totals still up in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm so happy to finally be in the area that stands the best odds of receiving the most snow URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ330 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015...A QUICK MOVING WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY INTOSUNDAY...NJZ008>010-015-PAZ070-071-101>106-211000-/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0005.150221T1700Z-150222T1100Z/MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...TRENTON...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN330 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE SATURDAY NIGHT.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW, WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY FROMSOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AND IT COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. ASSOME WARMER AIR MOVES IN, THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN SATURDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SOME RAIN BEFORETAPERING OFF DURING SUNDAY.* IMPACTS..HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTOSUNDAY.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.* TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY, THENRISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW, SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUETO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.