Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Upton updated there snow maps moving the snow amounts south and east.got a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ratios should be good to start, but yet will worsen as the R/S line approaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Um when you have 10:1-9:1 with 0.5-0.9 as snow, that is 4-8"...Upton is dropping amounts for a reason, they just saw the 12z suite and dropped the accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Upton is dropping amounts for a reason, they just saw the 12z suite and dropped the accumulationsHuh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Huh? Yes really... the 12z runs came in slightly colder and snowier across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Huh?The amounts they had for the lhv went down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 euro2-20-12Z.png Euro is really hard to take into consideration since it has sucked all winter. It's an outlier right now with these low amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 When the outlier low model is trending towards the others and still has 2-4", and all other guidance is 4-8", pretty confident in forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nothing wrong with 3-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nothing wrong with 3-4 inches. That's from this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro is really hard to take into consideration since it has sucked all winter. It's an outlier right now with these low amounts.Its really sucked in the medium and long range. Within a day or two it hasn't been terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The amounts they had for the lhv went down That was put out at 5:13am which is wayyy before the 12z runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Its really sucked in the medium and long range. Within a day or two it hasn't been terrible Ehh the GFS has been better this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12:03pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The map from Upton has not changed since this am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nothing wrong with 3-4 inches. That's NOT what she said. But seriously, with the ratios for this storm 3-4" will be generous for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 watches issued out west in central PA & central MD for 5-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Its really sucked in the medium and long range. Within a day or two it hasn't been terrible The UKMET/RGEM and Euro have traded off being best from one system to the other, you never know which one will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z UKMET in agreement with the Euro on a 0.50-0.75" LE event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Um when you have 10:1-9:1 with 0.5-0.9 as snow, that is 4-8"... By Saturday night when the heavier precip arrives ratios will be down to 6 or 7:1 at best. I can see where someone pulls out 6-7" especially towards TTN but I think that's the exception rather than the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 By Saturday night when the heavier precip arrives ratios will be down to 6 or 7:1 at best. I can see where someone pulls out 6-7" especially towards TTN but I think that's the exception rather than the rule.I don't see ratios this low with heavy thumping snow tbh. But even at 7:1, .5-.9 is 3.5-6.3. Combine that with more precip being expected as normally happens with these events and you have your 4-8, even with crappy ratios and taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Iso do you really think Trenton nj will get more than morristown? I dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Iso do you really think Trenton nj will get more than morristown? I dont. Me either, but thats only because i live in TTN Its like reverse-psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Iso do you really think Trenton nj will get more than morristown? I dont. Yes, the airmass warms as we get later in the period so those areas that start faster should get more. That's why I like an Allentown to TTN JP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not that it means much but the 15z SREF mean shifted North. NYC now on the 1.00"+ contour which then runs West right along Rt. 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 When does the precip shut off in NYC this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not that it means much but the 15z SREF mean shifted North. NYC now on the 1.00"+ contour which then runs West right along Rt. 80. How do you pecip profiles look in regards to snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How do you pecip profiles look in regards to snowfall? Like all the other guidance, the changever begins around 00z and is complete by 05z except for Sullivan County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That's the other problem, the mixing issues come right as the heaviest precip is arriving. Our best chances of accumulating snowfall are between 18z and 00z. Then as you progress northward you can tack on an hour or two for each 20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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