MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z hrdps coming in further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Look for 4 to 6 around EWR KNYC KLGA . The RGEM is right here .This is an extremely cold air mass that the SW is running into . Light S winds will not torch the BL fast enough so you will snow for a while. EVERY front end system this year has over performed . The only warm layer here is at 925 and it this layer that will keep this from piling up east of the city. The 925 do punch N but by the time it does the damage will be done. This system has come to the pattern and you do not have to go very far N and W outside KNYC to see 8 inches of snow just end as drizzle There shouldn't be more than .25 inches of rain in the city with this as the best lift and best moisture is out ahead of the mid level warmth. Another win for this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro is quicker so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GEM LAM hammers DC with close to a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's the slightest nudge South, just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's faster, that's about the biggest difference I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's also drier for C and S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z hrdps coming in further south HRES 2.5KM RGEM Through 42 HR weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's also drier for C and S NJ.How about us? Rockland and Bergen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 3-5 inches for nyc on euro. More to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's faster, that's about the biggest difference I see. It looks a hair colder based on H85 temps and 540 thicknesses, that's all I can see right now. Probably just model noise/run to run variation, still colder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 3-5 inches for nyc on euro. More to the west. much more than prior run, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z hrdps coming in further south hrdps? Is this a new model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 much more than prior run, correct? yep, 0z had 1-2 inches. This run is colder and snowier for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 much more than prior run, correct? SV maps only have 1-2" for the immediate coast and 2-4" for NJ and the LHV. I don't know where he's getting 3-5" unless he's guessing on better ratios. Ratios with this sytem will start off decently and then will be reduced to less than 10:1 as the mid-levels warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 hrdps? Is this a new model? High-Res Deterministic Prediction System, 2.5KM High Res RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 yep, 0z had 1-2 inches. This run is colder and snowier for most. The only place around here that gets 3-5" on the 12z Euro is inside Anthony's head. Normally you bump up SV numbers slightly but in this case with the poor ratios consevative is probably the best way to go. I still think that 3-6" is probably a good forecast, just reporting what the Euro shows. Honestly, the Euro would be borderline meh. A few inches of snow and then slop verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 with .75 liquid at least falling areas north and west will be getting much more then 2-4, its safe to put them in 4-8 range that's including looks at the euro, nam gfs and cana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Great trends today towards a snowier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yup, I would expect WSW up this afternoon for all but LI, E/C NJ, and NYC boroughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 with .75 liquid at least falling areas north and west will be getting much more then 2-4, its safe to put them in 4-8 range that's including looks at the euro, nam gfs and cana 0.50"-0.75" LE on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0.50"-0.75" LE on the Euro. That is a decent event for locations that can stay all snow. Nothing wrong with 3-6 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Will probably see advisory of either 2-4" or 3-5" for this region. A bit more for areas further N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Will probably see advisory of either 2-4" or 3-5" for this region. A bit more for areas further N&W. Nothing wrong with that =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well whatever we get will freeze solid again by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Big props to Cisco for saying that the models were too warm with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That is a decent event for locations that can stay all snow. Nothing wrong with 3-6 inches of snow Yeah, I just don't think most people understand here just how poor ratios will be. 10 or 11:1 and then dropping to 6 or 7:1 by Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah, I just don't think most people understand here just how poor ratios will be. 10 or 11:1 and then dropping to 6 or 7:1 by Saturday night.The ratios are going to be horrific, even up into the lower hudson valley, I just don't understand where these 4-8 inch calls are coming from, even up that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 The ratios are going to be horrific, even up into the lower hudson valley, I just don't understand where these 4-8 inch calls are coming from, even up that way... Um when you have 10:1-9:1 with 0.5-0.9 as snow, that is 4-8"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Upton updated there snow maps moving the snow amounts south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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