SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow that's a lot of rain after the changeover. Enjoy the thump because it's going to be gone as fast it comes in. The Gfs looked colder aloft but still warm at the surface. Usually the lead WAA with these steals all the energy and you end up with much less behind it than the models show, hence why they tend to end was drizzle or spotty rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ggem is really impressive. I doubt we get alot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEM is still snow at NYC at hr42 (6z Sunday)ggem sniffed out this storm earlier than any other model. I'm going to ride this one with ggem. I doubt we change over to plain rain. Unfortunately I feel terrible as what could happen. We have anywhere from 6-12 inches of snowpack. Figure another 4-6 will fall tomorrow and it'll be heavy wet snow. I don't think we switch to plain rain at all. I think this thing is outta here by 3-4am or 8z-9z Sunday morning. I do think the snow will change to freezing rain around 6z or so 1am Sunday morning and continue till the precip shuts off. A quarter inch of ice is not out of the question. I just don't see the rain here. Ground is frozen solid so we can have freezing rain and 34 degrees in the city. Permafrost is probably at its highest this time of the year, not to mention the snowpack all over the boundary this storm is taking and also there's like a mile wide ice accumulations on the coast and water temps in the mid 30's I don't see it warming up higher than 38 and that's after the precip shuts off and the sun comes out Sunday afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Any eloboration on the GGEM, 4-8" in NNJ or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ggem sniffed out this storm earlier than any other model. I'm going to ride this one with ggem. I doubt we change over to plain rain. Unfortunately I feel terrible as what could happen. We have anywhere from 6-12 inches of snowpack. Figure another 4-6 will fall tomorrow and it'll be heavy wet snow. I don't think we switch to plain rain at all. I think this thing is outta here by 3-4am or 8z-9z Sunday morning. I do think the snow will change to freezing rain around 6z or so 1am Sunday morning and continue till the precip shuts off. A quarter inch of ice is not out of the question. I just don't see the rain here. Ground is frozen solid so we can have freezing rain and 34 degrees in the city. Permafrost is probably at its highest this time of the year, not to mention the snowpack all over the boundary this storm is taking and also there's like a mile wide ice accumulations on the coast and water temps in the mid 30's I don't see it warming up higher than 38 and that's after the precip shuts off and the sun comes out Sunday afternoon! and is this assumption for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sigh...not even close to a 'wash away' situation. 4-8" then maybe an inch or so of compaction is not 'wash away' with temps in mid 30's and light rain Absolutely one hundred percent correct. The south shore guys can attest to this as we have seen it a million times. This is good snow pile building stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ggem sniffed out this storm earlier than any other model. I'm going to ride this one with ggem. I doubt we change over to plain rain. Unfortunately I feel terrible as what could happen. We have anywhere from 6-12 inches of snowpack. Figure another 4-6 will fall tomorrow and it'll be heavy wet snow. I don't think we switch to plain rain at all. I think this thing is outta here by 3-4am or 8z-9z Sunday morning. I do think the snow will change to freezing rain around 6z or so 1am Sunday morning and continue till the precip shuts off. A quarter inch of ice is not out of the question. I just don't see the rain here. Ground is frozen solid so we can have freezing rain and 34 degrees in the city. Permafrost is probably at its highest this time of the year, not to mention the snowpack all over the boundary this storm is taking and also there's like a mile wide ice accumulations on the coast and water temps in the mid 30's I don't see it warming up higher than 38 and that's after the precip shuts off and the sun comes out Sunday afternoon! Is there any scientific reasoning behind this or just a weenie hunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The UKMET appeared to move a bit south as well but it may be a noise shift more than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ggem sniffed out this storm earlier than any other model. I'm going to ride this one with ggem. I doubt we change over to plain rain. Unfortunately I feel terrible as what could happen. We have anywhere from 6-12 inches of snowpack. Figure another 4-6 will fall tomorrow and it'll be heavy wet snow. I don't think we switch to plain rain at all. I think this thing is outta here by 3-4am or 8z-9z Sunday morning. I do think the snow will change to freezing rain around 6z or so 1am Sunday morning and continue till the precip shuts off. A quarter inch of ice is not out of the question. I just don't see the rain here. Ground is frozen solid so we can have freezing rain and 34 degrees in the city. Permafrost is probably at its highest this time of the year, not to mention the snowpack all over the boundary this storm is taking and also there's like a mile wide ice accumulations on the coast and water temps in the mid 30's I don't see it warming up higher than 38 and that's after the precip shuts off and the sun comes out Sunday afternoon! Weather201415? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Weather201415? Of course it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Usually the lead WAA with these steals all the energy and you end up with much less behind it than the models show, hence why they tend to end was drizzle or spotty rain I'm going with 3-5" from TTN to MMU, 2-4" for HPN, EWR and LGA and then 1-3" for SWF and ISP. 0.05" to 0.10" of ice from TTN to MMU and then about 0.25" to 0.50" of rain for all areas except SWF. I think the system dries out some as you move northeast due to weaker WAA and I think a lot of precip is wasted on poor ratio snow and or a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Of course it is. If it wasn't the over the top weenieism, the obligatory exclamation points gave it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Is there any scientific reasoning behind this or just a weenie hunch?Wishes, hopes and prayers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ggem at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If it wasn't the over the top weenieism, the obligatory exclamation points gave it away.i said the same thing for the last storm that was supposed to change to rain but everyone was making fun of it and saying I was trolling so if I'm wrong tomorrow so be it, but I don't think nyc switches to rain. Look at the trends Dan... We haven't seen rain since Christmas eve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What system was it last year that looked like it would come in as snow and quickly flip to ZR/IP and ended up being 4-8" dump and then some ice at the very end? I can see some similarities here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 i said the same thing for the last storm that was supposed to change to rain but everyone was making fun of it and saying I was trolling so if I'm wrong tomorrow so be it, but I don't think nyc switches to rain. Look at the trends Dan... We haven't seen rain since Christmas eve! Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ggem at 42: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wishes, hopes and prayers Don't forget sh**s and giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 i said the same thing for the last storm that was supposed to change to rain but everyone was making fun of it and saying I was trolling so if I'm wrong tomorrow so be it, but I don't think nyc switches to rain. Look at the trends Dan... We haven't seen rain since Christmas eve!Said the same thing for the last storm, but you just joined the board 2 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What system was it last year that looked like it would come in as snow and quickly flip to ZR/IP and ended up being 4-8" dump and then some ice at the very end? I can see some similarities here. That was a much stronger low that tracked up the coast with more WAA, this system doesn't quite have that push that system did, that was the one where some places snowed 3 inches an hour at the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Said the same thing for the last storm, but you just joined the board 2 days ago? My guess is he is another one of the famous TonyLovesSnow personalities. Someone please give him an IP ban and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Said the same thing for the last storm, but you just joined the board 2 days ago? My guess is he is another one of the famous TonyLovesSnow personalities. Someone please give him an IP ban and be done with it. It's Weather201415. He basically confirmed... or should I say, he basically confirmed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What system was it last year that looked like it would come in as snow and quickly flip to ZR/IP and ended up being 4-8" dump and then some ice at the very end? I can see some similarities here. If it comes in hard, fast, and early then maybe we could a surprise heavy dump. Rates are usually the heaviest near the changeover line in these cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That was a much stronger low that tracked up the coast with more WAA, this system doesn't quite have that push that system did, that was the one where some places snowed 3 inches an hour at the startyeah but it's precipitation is more dynamic. It'll be a lot heavier snow than the last event hence most models underestimate dynamic and evaporative coolingEdit: can't post more than 5 pages a day I was told so I'm done for the day. See you guys tomorrow Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 i said the same thing for the last storm that was supposed to change to rain but everyone was making fun of it and saying I was trolling so if I'm wrong tomorrow so be it, but I don't think nyc switches to rain. Look at the trends Dan... We haven't seen rain since Christmas eve! It rained here like last week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It rained here like last week... I don't know where he lives but I haven't had pure rain in recent memory, freezing rain, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 last pure rain here was 1/18...1/24 ended as light rain/drizzle. Since then, nothing liquid here which is nothing short of amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Likuidsky3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I love how accuweather still shows 1-3" of snow for NENJ. What are they looking at, that everyone is not here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 last pure rain here was 1/18...1/24 ended as light rain/drizzle. Since then, nothing liquid here which is nothing short of amazing. Yeah the system around 1/24 ushered in an unbelievable stretch of cold and wintry weather. Having highs in the 30's and 40's is pretty typical for this area in February and I think I've only broken freezing once so far. Part of the reason why I still have 90% of what has fallen on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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