rossi Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 So basically it looks like the GFS, all rain by Sunday morning and through the day? Thats today. Every storm has gone colder as we move closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Hopefully this dry slots after the front end dump. It's happened many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 So basically it looks like the GFS, all rain by Sunday morning and through the day? Yes, rain all day Sunday...but nothing very heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 A lot slower than the 00z run which had cleared us out by Sunday night. Still light to moderate rain now with the front hung up right on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yes, rain all day Sunday...but nothing very heavy. how much snow falls before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 how much snow falls before? 2-4/3-6 type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Thats today. Every storm has gone colder as we move closer Agree this will probably trend colder unless the s/w trends stronger and is more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 how much snow falls before? 2-4, 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Front blows in Monday morning...arctic air comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Step towards the GFS, but the GFS completely cuts off the energy over CA which allows the energy to be a bit more consolidated in the trough. The Euro is more of a long strung out system. Rain from Mexico to Nova Scotia by Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Front blows in Monday morning...arctic air comes in If we can get 3-6"+, mix, maybe a little cold rain, than arctic air to lock it all up....Ill take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 2-4/3-6 type deal.Isnt the gfs bias that it's too far east or south then corrects west? If so the fact that it's a cutter on the gfs rather than south or way east is a bad sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This would be a problem in SNE as all that snow would absorb the rain increasing the weight on roofs and other structures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GEFS -ENS 12z http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=namer&pkg=uv250&runtime=2015021712&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=400 Nice wiggle room for an all snow coastal--imo-- small slide east... snow menus handed out http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015021712/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_22.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 2-4, 3-5 What about NW of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This has a direct moisture feed out of the Gulf and a natural boundary between the cold air to the North and the Warm air to the South. Lift will be maximized just North of the boundary. Euro spits out 1-2" LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 What about NW of NYC? It's the same for all areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 No point in getting into specifics or freaking out one way or another. My money is on a GFS/GGEM blend with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Isnt the gfs bias that it's too far east or south then corrects west? If so the fact that it's a cutter on the gfs rather than south or way east is a bad sign? Before the upgrade it had a habit of being to far se in the mid range with east coast storms. This is not a coastal storm just all about the trough axis and where the storm decided to phase in and cut..I don't take the gfs being west as a bad sign, models have been awful all yeAr...yesterday was suppose to be a cutter,miss,hit all in the mid range last week..all options are on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Isnt the gfs bias that it's too far east or south then corrects west? If so the fact that it's a cutter on the gfs rather than south or way east is a bad sign? We only mention the south and east bias when its to the south and east of where we want it to be. When it's north and west already.....we don't speak of that bias around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 No point in getting into specifics or freaking out one way or another. My money is on a GFS/GGEM blend with this one. Yea agreed, I was just wondering what the model showed but freaking out over specifics because we all know that will change as early as tonight! Still many more model runs to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We only mention the south and east bias when its to the south and east of where we want it to be. When it's north and west already.....we don't speak of that bias around here. The SE bias is really only a factor on Miller A's. We have yet to test if the newly upgraded gfs still has this bias though. We need a good Miller A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg sur.gif What is your idea of this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 What is your idea of this storm? I was told not to forecast so I will just post images that I think are relevant and let the viewer decide for themselves I have nothing to prove... PNA ridge is awesome this weekend I like our chances for snow -----bigtime dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This is like a setup I've never seen before, guaranteed models are going to drastically change on this the next 48 hours, again they cannot decide which shortwave to focus on and how to piece together various disturbances and time them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 By the way...nice call for the last storm, NYC didnt crack 4", but close and many did. Who said NYC didn't crack 4"? Last report was from 7:00am. LGA and JFK are also 7:00am reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 By the way...nice call for the last storm, NYC didnt crack 4", but close and many did. Ditto. I live in Manhattan and I did get 4 inches. Nice call DM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Who said NYC didn't crack 4"? Last report was from 7:00am. LGA and JFK are also 7:00am reports. CPK at storm total was 3.0".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 CPK at storm total was 3.0".... That was at 7:00a.m. Where did you see anything past that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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