UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's a much drier run. Some areas lost 0.50-0.75" LE. Slower run, great for those that want a longer duration event. Looks like inland areas do really well on this run. Gulf moisture ftw This system is going to have a ton of moisture. PWAT's are close to an inch late Saturday night in NYC. Every one of these posts contradict each other yanks and snow88... In the same PBP you say it's gonna have tons of moisture and it's slower, yet people loose almost and half an inch qpf and the storm is in and out in the EXACT same time frame as 06z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 4k NAM shows this coming in as a wall of snow around 18z tomorrow. Definately sped up timing of heavy stuff, which is very important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The 4k NAM also has about a 3-5 hour period of heavy freezing rain and temps in the low-mid 20's NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4k NAM shows this coming in as a wall of snow around 18z tomorrow. You can add amounts to what the NAM shows, its always too low on totals in SWFEs because it's slow bias of bringing in precip kills it, it largely goes unnoticed in an all snow event but it totally cripples the NAM in these systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My forecast is low 40s so they'll definitely be some melting. If you combine that with some rain then it should easily wipe out a 2-3" snowfall. I'm not saying the remaining pack will go away just the additional snow. that's an automated temperature forecast.and there's not that much rain. but you're free to take the worst model in the world literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We changeover to some pretty good rain and temps warm in the 40s on Sunday. no one is getting into the 40's. Maybe 35-38 tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Isn't every storm a nowcasting event? Lol. I've never heard someone just look at models and say "ok, the storm is arriving I'm just going to skip observations and not look at the radar" Nope...not every storm. Sometimes you can look at a forecast and be fairly confident...and not check the radar constantly. This year has been especially bad with models and forecasts changing abruptly within 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Every one of these posts contradict each other yanks and snow88... In the same PBP you say it's gonna have tons of moisture and it's slower, yet people loose almost and half an inch qpf and the storm is in and out in the EXACT same time frame as 06z nam. Less QPF after the flip to rain, c'mon man. Give it a rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Less QPF after the flip to rain, c'mon man. Give it a rest.So how is it so much slower? In and out, same time frame.. All I said was it was moving the same time frame, u said I was wrong and to stop, again I was correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 You can add amounts to what the NAM shows, its always too low on totals in SWFEs because it's slow bias of bringing in precip kills it, it largely goes unnoticed in an all snow event but it totally cripples the NAM in these systems Whatz your forecast Goose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 no one is getting into the 40's. Maybe 35-38 tops There's no high to the north and the winds will be from the south. Temps look to warm as the precip begins to lighten up. We'll definitely see a few hours of 40F+ before the next cold surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 You can add amounts to what the NAM shows, its always too low on totals in SWFEs because it's slow bias of bringing in precip kills it, it largely goes unnoticed in an all snow event but it totally cripples the NAM in these systems So what do you think happens? snow and then a change to drizzle/fog which is very typical in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The 4k NAM also has about a 3-5 hour period of heavy freezing rain and temps in the low-mid 20's NW of the city. That's would be quite a worry. Where's the cutoff for this icing on the 4k NW of the city roughly? Can't access the maps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 There's no high to the north and the winds will be from the south. Temps look to warm as the precip begins to lighten up. We'll definitely see a few hours of 40F+ before the next cold surge. No way. Mid to upper 30s most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4k Nam has 6 inches just west of NYC. NYC gets 3-6 on the 4kNam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 You can add amounts to what the NAM shows, its always too low on totals in SWFEs because it's slow bias of bringing in precip kills it, it largely goes unnoticed in an all snow event but it totally cripples the NAM in these systemsSurprisngly Upton is not bullish at all for this system. The forecast for Rockland is an inch for Saturday afternoon and 1-3 Saturday night and early Sunday morning and that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 There's no high to the north and the winds will be from the south. Temps look to warm as the precip begins to lighten up. We'll definitely see a few hours of 40F+ before the next cold surge. you also have snowcover all the way down to NC and a weak low...if the low were stronger I'd agree with you. Winds will be light, but southerly, and going over 100's of miles of snowcover. Good luck with 40+ in that setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4k Nam has 6 inches just west of NYC. NYC gets 3-6 on the 4kNam. Are the lower snow totals to the south because of mixing issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4k Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Frankly Im very surpised Philly/Upton do not have WSW up for N/C NJ, N/W NJ, E PA, NE NJ, S NY State....but I think they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Frankly Im very surpised Philly/Upton do not have WSW up for N/C NJ, N/W NJ, E PA, NE NJ, S NY State....but I think they will. Upton will most likely issue WWA for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Frankly Im very surpised Philly/Upton do not have WSW up for N/C NJ, N/W NJ, E PA, NE NJ, S NY State....but I think they will.Given the busts this winter, they won't do a damn thing until after all the 12z guidance is in, and they may even wait to see what 18z does before pulling the trigger this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Surprisngly Upton is not bullish at all for this system. The forecast for Rockland is an inch for Saturday afternoon and 1-3 Saturday night and early Sunday morning and that's it After the winter they've had and getting burned, being cautious and patient today is probably a good idea to get a better handle and consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It looks like several hours of snow on the rgem before changing over for the area. Really nice front end thump. Inland areas hang on to the snow longer than the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It looks like several hours of snow on the rgem before changing over for the area. Really nice front end thump. Inland areas hang on to the snow longer than the coast.How much snow does it give? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 you also have snowcover all the way down to NC and a weak low...if the low were stronger I'd agree with you. Winds will be light, but southerly, and going over 100's of miles of snowcover. Good luck with 40+ in that setup I think we could hit 40 here for a bit..winds look to be from the south so that snowcover wont help LI...50 degree water off the south NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How much snow does it give? A few inches for NYC with more for inland areas before the switchover for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NYC gets 13mm of snow on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Rgem is 4"-6" of front end snow for NYC and all the boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Rgem is 4"-6" of front end snow for NYC and all the boroughs. What about N NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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