IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 more details - snow/rain where So far the R/S is just SE of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This system is going to have a ton of moisture. PWAT's are close to an inch late Saturday night in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This system is going to have a ton of moisture. PWAT's are close to an inch late Saturday night in NYC. Gulf moisture ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 City over to sleet or rain between 00z and 03z. Rt. 80 and North still hanging onto snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No it doesn't. Let Allsnow and myself do it. With the exception of slightly more precip down by DC they look almost identical at this time frame, all I was saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yes...as depicted by the models, it wouldn't take much of shift to get some decent snow. Might be another nowcasting event. Isn't every storm a nowcasting event? Lol. I've never heard someone just look at models and say "ok, the storm is arriving I'm just going to skip observations and not look at the radar" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 At hr 39 it has changed to sleet or rain for most places based in soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NW areas probably never change over. NYC gets to 37F or so. 850's only make it to +1C or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 925mb 0c isotherm makes it to Sussex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NW areas probably never change over. NYC gets to 37F or so. 850's only make it to +1C or so. Its the 925 that really counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Curious ..coming back from KMSV this weekend to Long Island, Where do the flakes begin first and end last? Is it best to come back Sat afternoon or Sunday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NW areas probably never change over. NYC gets to 37F or so. 850's only make it to +1C or so. Didn't look at soundings ? Nw areas are over to sleet at he 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like we get a few hours of snow before the changeover. Whatever snow we get should be wiped away though by the rain and warm surge so in the end it won't really matter if it's 2" or 4". really doubt that, there won't be any "warm surge" for the snow to be "wiped away" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 With the exception of slightly more precip down by DC they look almost identical at this time frame, all I was saying It's a much drier run. Some areas lost 0.50-0.75" LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 really doubt that, there won't be any "warm surge" to be "wiped away" We changeover to some pretty good rain and temps warm in the 40s on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 And nw areas over to rain at 42 . Can't just go by 85os ect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We changeover to some pretty good rain and temps warm in the 40s on Sunday. 40S? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We changeover to some pretty good rain and temps warm in the 40s on Sunday. Model hugging at its finest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Most areas this run will be at or under 1.00" LE. More towards Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yanks could u and all snow explain for all us dumb people how it's so much slower like u stated? Precip rolls in around 18z satururday and is out by 09z sunday on both the 06z and 12z??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We changeover to some pretty good rain and temps warm in the 40s on Sunday. temperature won't even get close to 40 and our high on sunday will occur early in the day. snowpack will absorb most of the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 I dont think anyone NW of the turnpike and north of the Driscoll see above 35F or so.....this will be one heck of a storm. With max 850s of 0 to +1F for the same area and deep snowcover, no strong storm to our west, and by 3-6z we start to cool again looks like a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It looks good north and west of nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 As I said yesterday this looks like for all of N NJ a 4"-8" storm with a changeover to mix/rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 40S? Monmouth County is into the 40's on Sunday. So is the East half of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 temperature won't even get close to 40 and our high on sunday will occur early in the day. snowpack will absorb most of the rain My forecast is low 40s so they'll definitely be some melting. If you combine that with some rain then it should easily wipe out a 2-3" snowfall. I'm not saying the remaining pack will go away just the additional snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4k NAM shows this coming in as a wall of snow around 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 very similar run to the 6z position wise, definitely quite a bit drier in some areas especially central jersey about .40-.50 less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 You notice every NAM model run has become snowier in the area since yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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