MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 A good thump to rain on the RGEm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro? A little less snow than on the 12z run. 2-4 inches ( assuming 10-1 ratios) lower Hudson valley, and the 1-2 and 2-4 line cuts just NW of NYC. Also....very little snow unless you are in extreme NW NJ, where they get 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Southern 2/3rds of NJ gets less than an inch of snow on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Thanks. Sounds like a very supressed system or flood of warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Thanks. Sounds like a very supressed system or flood of warm air. 850s are cold. Surface warms up but not alot. 925 is warm. Need the surface to be colder than what the euro shows. Still have a little time to figure it out. I doubt the surface temps will be warm considering how the temps are now and how weak the low is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 00z ECM snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro.jpg 00z ECM snowfall Ha even the ocean beats us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks more in line with Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro.jpg 00z ECM snowfall 850s cold but not the surface. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 congrats fishies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks more in line with Canadian.no it doesn't man, the Canadian has way more snow. With this setup I am tossing the euro. It hasn't been spectucular to say the least. It looks more like the GFS but less snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Models are still dancing around within 36 hours of the event. Typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks more in line with Canadian. Yup. Fish do decent on this run. At least I don't have to be jealous of Boston for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 congrats fishies thats all ocean effect snow that's falling at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 850s cold but not the surface. Weird. That is my very thought as well.. Surface is not terribly warm however.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Models are still dancing around within 36 hours of the event. Typical. Yep, not going to know anything until Saturday morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yep, not going to know anything until Saturday morning lolNonsense Anthony. Well make the forecast for Saturday night on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 850s cold but not the surface. Weird.Onshore wind killing the boundary layer. I highlighted this a couple of days ago. The departing high into the ocean's in a terrible spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think it's going to take a lot for this to be more than a couple of inches near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think it's going to take a lot for this to be more than a couple of inches near the coast. Water temps are cold. The low is really weak. Euro is most likely wrong with the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That is my very thought as well.. Surface is not terribly warm however.. 850s cold but not the surface. Weird.Guys surface winds are all from the south this is why we are torching at the surface for many hours before the precip comes in.. The weak low is still passing well to our west. It's seems logical that this is the outcome per this model output.. Two weeks ago the winds were from the NE on that borderline event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Onshore wind killing the boundary layer. I highlighted this a couple of days ago. The departing high into the ocean's in a terrible spot. It's also not December and the ocean is much colder. I think the models are too warm except for the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's also not December and the ocean is much colder. I think the models are too warm except for the immediate coast.Its a strong south fetch behind the departing high, with a source region well south of the area, where temps are way above freezing. It doesn't take much, even now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Its a strong south fetch behind the departing high, with a source region well south of the area, where temps are way above freezing. It doesn't take much, even now. People forget that the Gulf Stream never really allows far offshore waters to drop much below the 50s. A nice southerly flow will pull that air north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Its a strong south fetch behind the departing high, with a source region well south of the area, where temps are way above freezing. It doesn't take much, even now. Yes and we will warm up no question but during the front end thump I do think the models are too warm at the surface. The warm up would occur after the heavy precip has passed as this event is reminiscent of a SWFE. A lot also has to do with the strength of the low. The weaker and progressive it is, the better for the region as less warmth gets drawn north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Problem I have with the Euro is that the surface is warmer then even what the NAM shows...... Which is better on thermals? ECM @ 54 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 6z nam is printing out some massive QPF for NJ 850 temps on the border of PA and MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GEM-LAM total snowfall from 0Z Saturday to 0Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think it's going to take a lot for this to be more than a couple of inches near the coast. If the snow comes in fast and furious at 18Z there will be some big amounts from MD up into this area, the Euro mostly pushes the higher QPF in the 18-03Z window NW of the area, the other models do not really do that, while the UKMET and RGEM have plenty of heavier snow in Upstate NY and N PA like the Euro they also generate a bunch of snow more SE of that in our area which the Euro does not. I think its likely rain after 03Z for immediate coastal areas I could see over 6 inches prior to that in some areas if this gets in at 18Z, if its not in til 21-22Z it could easily only be 1 or 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GEM-LAM total snowfall from 0Z Saturday to 0Z Sunday. gem_lam_total_snowfall.jpg Were can you access that model? Damn that looks like its really south. I've read that its been doing a good job too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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