IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Everyone flips to rain by 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nice thump on the gfs. Hr 51 is sleet nyc south... By hr 54 rain lower Hudson valley south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 By 7am Sunday it's over. By hr 51 nyc has had .25+ And the rest of area. That's all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS is warming up the surface way too quickly and too far north IMO...most places will struggle to get above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sv maps 2-4 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Surface temps don't get out of the 30's per gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sv maps 2-4 for the area I would go with that. It reminds me of a storm a few weeks ago with a similar front end dump where a lot of places got 2-4" also before it tainted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Surface temps don't get out of the 30's per gfs Trending colder. Would not be stunned to see a prolonged period of sleet/freezing rain for some areas before the light rain/drizzle at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm flying out late Saturday night from NY - do you think this will impact flights a lot or is it still within nuescience range? Really worried about this storm as it seems to keep trending toward more snow (ironic!) Definitely expect delays. Cancelations, probably not. I've landed and taken off in similar storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Definitely expect delays. Cancelations, probably not. I've landed and taken off in similar storms.Don't forget to look downstream to where you're flying to as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I noticed with every storm, the GFS always undermines dynamic and evaporative cooling. That is probably the reason why the GFS changes the snow to rain so quickly. Still a decent run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I noticed with every storm, the GFS always undermines dynamic and evaporative cooling. That is probably the reason why the GFS changes the snow to rain so quickly. Still a decent run!That's why it's a global. It's resolution doesn't allow for it to interpret these types of temperature situations all that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GEM has a 3-6" front end for most before a change to rain towards the end. Looks suspect Sunday afternoon with temperatures spiking well into the 40s for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Fwiw, the ggem snow map looks very similar to the nam snow map for our area. Differences for places south and west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How was the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is becoming a really nice event for the area. A big change from seeing 50s and heavy rain 2 days ago on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is becoming a really nice event for the area. A big change from seeing 50s and heavy rain 2 days ago on the models.ggem handled this storm better than most, assuming this solution comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How was the UKMET?it looks like 0.75 precip and 850's never go above freezing for central NJ and north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 it looks like 0.75 precip and 850's never go above freezing for central NJ and north... Surface torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Surface torches.Guess that part got left out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Guess that part got left out lol Hard to tell if most of the precip is gone or not. 54 would be key frame but not shown on meteocentre and weatherbell loads at like 3am for UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Guess that part got left out lol But it's a real nice event, because not sure if you knew but we all live at about 5,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Surface torches. Guess that part got left out lol Yes, after a few inches of snow. The surface isn't going to torch until the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Guess that part got left out lolwell I said 850's don't go above freezing lol. Regardless it looks like a heavy snow to some freezing drizzle in most of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 But it's a real nice event, because not sure if you knew but we all live at about 5,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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