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2/21-2/23 Weekend Possible Storm


Zelocita Weather

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Favorite movie of last year.  Wasn't sure it was a nod to the juju - I also spend a ton of time on the RU football board and it's filled with people who truly, truly believe in jinxs and superstition, so I guess I was being a little oversensitive to it here...

You know what will happen here . 1 OP run over the next 48 hours will show a whiff . 1 will Neg tilt and cut and eventually 1 will pop up with  a R/S line and guys will slug  out the 850`s outside 5 days and it will make for some uneasy reading .

 

I like SAT threat to trend colder in the end . I think its a weak SW with a 1045 leaning on its backside . So there is a chance the cold air in front holds a bit longer and the rain that probably does fall on the coastal plain will be at the end and somewhat minimal .

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On WXbell it still only goes out to 48, probably why I didn't know... Unless I'm missing something on there

use this site for rgem that shows up to 54 hours for you. It's a free site but Its pretty good

Edit:rgem=CMC-RDPS

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

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Not that I necessarily trust the srefs cause according to them I should be sitting on a 100+" snowpack, but nearly 17 of 22 member are over .75" for this, and quit a few that are between 1.00-1.85".

Nyc is 1.84" max qpf

1.00" mean qpf

.22" minimum

Snow, rain, or mix?

DT is not impressed for NYC.

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No worries. Your guess is better than mine. But I know, in this winter at least, not to take any forecast or discussion of a forecast seriously until after the storm has passed.

Srefs members do tend to be over amped in general. The one thing I would say if we get lit up with precipitation is it could also be some members seeing a really strong front end thump. The WAA and IL could really create a strong front end thump. The NAM alluded to this as well.
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Don't take my word for it, I'm not a pro, just a best guess.. Snowwgoose or forky might be able to explain better

 

Usually like Snowgoose mentioned, the front-end on these storms almost always over-performs . Gonna be interesting for sure..

 

Also I notice that we always start off colder then forecasted..IMO I think Snowgoose is onto something and agree that snow totals could bust on the positive side for folks in NYC and even more so north of there

 

I remember one storm we were foretasted to get around 3-5" and NYC ended up with about 6-8" pretty positive it was a storm very similar in evolution to this one

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There is snow on the ground everywhere north of a line from Cape Hatteras, NC across to the southern border of the state of Tennessee.  How much warm air can reasonably & plausibly be expected to be advected north given such a circumstance, considering the mid latitude disturbance is not some behemoth?

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