IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Even SWF has mixing issues, that should tell you all you need to know Sorry for dumb question, but where is SWF? 150221/1900Z 49 18011KT 23.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 150221/2000Z 50 17009KT 23.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 150221/2100Z 51 17009KT 24.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 150221/2200Z 52 18009KT 25.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 150221/2300Z 53 18008KT 25.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 150222/0000Z 54 18006KT 24.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150222/0100Z 55 16005KT 25.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 9:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0 150222/0200Z 56 15003KT 25.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 9:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0 150222/0300Z 57 VRB02KT 26.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 150222/0400Z 58 VRB01KT 28.1F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0 150222/0500Z 59 VRB01KT 29.2F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.02|| 0.074 8:1| 1.3|| 0.10|| 0.02|| 0.24 9| 59| 32 150222/0600Z 60 VRB02KT 30.8F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.04|| 0.061 8:1| 1.3|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.30 4| 33| 63 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150222/0700Z 61 VRB02KT 31.9F ZRSN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 8:1| 1.3|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.35 67| 10| 23 150222/0800Z 62 27003KT 30.8F SNOW 4:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 8:1| 1.4|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.38 100| 0| 0 150222/0900Z 63 25003KT 29.7F SNOW 4:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 7:1| 1.5|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.39 100| 0| 0 150222/1000Z 64 24004KT 30.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 7:1| 1.5|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.39 0| 0| 0 That would be Newburgh, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Close to .25 as all snow for the area. At hr 57 many areas are mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Slower this run, if we can manage to get the front to stall a bit further NW cold air will be dropping back down the backside and there is more energy to eject NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Apparently giving a model PBP now means that you're agreeing with it. My Lord you just can't win. unless said play by play is cold and snow, then you're all set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 you just can't win. unless said play by play is cold and snow, then you're all set. We badly need a storm where all areas get equally socked and there are no mixing or QPF issues. You know, something like PDII or 96' should do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Still a general 2-4 before the wash away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hours 48-54 are the trouble hours for me on the 18Z GFS, tons of lifting and WAA yet not much snow falling, be very wary of the 18-22Z period Saturday, that's where this event has huge bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS and NAM fairly similar, 2-4 north and west of the city and 1-2 south and east...NAM slightly more robust. What we weenies have to hope for is a slightly better front end dump and then only light rain/ drizzle at the end for a net snowpack gain....verbatim, the models are half and half with regard to qpf that falls as snow and qpf that falls as rain. Both have approx .60 or so region wide total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Weenie mapi usually like the clown maps but this one doesn't make sense. You'll have a moderate snow event for a several hours and that map shows spotty accumulations. I personally think it's underdone. I don't doubt we get more an hour or two of some sleet freezing rain or just plain rain but this map should show a stripe of at least 2-5 inches anywhere from philly and north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We badly need a storm where all areas get equally socked and there are no mixing or QPF issues. You know, something like PDII or 96' should do it 96 is the way to go. Cold and a big dump In areas where the most members live.Even 1888 would have someone pissed as amounts were all over the place due to banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Still a general 2-4 before the wash away Hah, wash away with 34F and drizzle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 i usually like the clown maps but this one doesn't make sense. You'll have a moderate snow event for a several hours and that map shows spotty accumulations. I personally think it's underdone. I don't doubt we get more an hour or two of some sleet freezing rain or just plain rain but this map should show a stripe of at least 2-5 inches anywhere from philly and north! It does show that strip lol.. Blue is 2-5" dependi on shade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We badly need a storm where all areas get equally socked and there are no mixing or QPF issues. You know, something like PDII or 96' should do it Just a 6-10 inch snow before mixing would be enough....I'm sick of front end "dumps" of 2.5 inches of slush followed by rain followed by ice. With frigid air beforehand...I'd rather have 60 degrees followed by a big snow followed by a big melt like Feb 06.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hah, wash away with 34F and drizzle... If you believe the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It does show that strip lol.. Blue is 2-5" dependi on shadeno I know that but how come its spotty. A setup like this usually brings a wall of snow which means there shouldn't be anyone philly and north up to Maine having at least 2-5 but obviously more north. Parts of upstate ny are in the 1-2 range in some spots. This is why I stopped giving these maps credit. You look at the guidance, pattern, snowpack, time of the year, trends and you come with your own forecast! Lol...Yep u guessed 3-6 is my call for philly up to Boston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is the forecast as of now for this area.. Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Wind chill values as low as -9. South wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday NightSnow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 2am, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. South wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. SundayA chance of snow and freezing rain before 11am, then a chance of rain between 11am and 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. I think rain is going to end up being very minimal or a non factor. by the time this is upon us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 no I know that but how come its spotty. A setup like this usually brings a wall of snow which means there shouldn't be anyone philly and north up to Maine having at least 2-5 but obviously more north. Parts of upstate ny are in the 1-2 range in some spots. This is why I stopped giving these maps credit. You look at the guidance, pattern, snowpack, time of the year, trends and you come with your own forecast! Yep u guessed 3-6 is my call for philly up to Boston! Read snowgooses post above it will explain why it's spotty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hah, wash away with 34F and drizzle... one thing is certain-if we do get some plain rain, it will turn the snowpack into granite with the next wave of cold coming. Stuff will be bulletproof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Weenie map I don't think I've ever seen a snow map like that before with more snow in Cumberland County in South Jersey than here in Monmouth. I guess because the precip arrives earlier down there before the warm air arrives but still. Doesn't happen too often when we both flip to rain like that and they end up with more snow than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 one thing is certain-if we do get some plain rain, it will turn the snowpack into granite with the next wave of cold coming. Stuff will be bulletproof Yup, dont mind losing 0.1' or so on mix/rain then the freeze comes in. Nice strong pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I don't think I've ever seen a snow map like that before with more snow in Cumberland County in South Jersey than here in Monmouth. I guess because the precip arrives earlier down there before the warm air arrives but still. Doesn't happen too often when we both flip to rain like that and they end up with more snow than us. Much stronger signature down there before the warm push, they drop 1+ qpf but then change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We badly need a storm where all areas get equally socked and there are no mixing or QPF issues. You know, something like PDII or 96' should do it or wel all can just get a nice rain storm and the complaining will stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 or wel all can just get a nice rain storm and the complaining will stop in a sick demented anti snow weenie way, I am actually looking forward to that day-wash it all away. Late march or when snow chances are largely done. (Which around here is usually in the 3/20 timeframe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Much stronger signature down there before the warm push, they drop 1+ qpf but then change over Exactly why I'm worried about higher snow amounts before the changeover further north, nothing is stopping that explosive precip shield from occurring further north in the warm advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 As a nonweather expert, I've gotta say...I come here and within two days I'm reading rainstorm, then snowstorm, then solid dump to rain, and now back to mostly rain. And we won't really know until the storm gets going. For the most part storms have underperformed here in north-central NJ this year. Is there any reason to think this won't continue? Seems like people talking about snow here are all in the upper northern tiers of the area. I expect tomorrow I will be reading something different.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 As a nonweather expert, I've gotta say...I come here and within two days I'm reading rainstorm, then snowstorm, then solid dump to rain, and now back to mostly rain. And we won't really know until the storm gets going. For the most part storms have underperformed here in north-central NJ this year. Is there any reason to think this won't continue? Seems like people talking about snow here are all in the upper northern tiers of the area. I expect tomorrow I will be reading something different.... models have been really bad outside of 2-3 days. But the seasonal trend has been for no big cutters, so guess you could see how yesterday's runs were going to not work out. I think Snowgoose brings up a good point on this type of storm, which we have seen quite a few over the years....surely southern areas won't get as much, but I think most folks see a good thump on the front end similar to the storm of 1/24/15.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Exactly why I'm worried about higher snow amounts before the changeover further north, nothing is stopping that explosive precip shield from occurring further north in the warm advection I agree these setup tend to really thump. Last February was the ultimate example. Not saying that's happening here because it's not just an example. I think an average of 3" is good for the NYC area. I think there woulnt be as step a gradient this time as everyone warms at a similar time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 18Z RGEM as you'd expect is over amped at 54 hours vs most guidance but it comfortably has the NYC metro all snow still at that point, it's dropped close to .15 already by that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 18Z RGEM as you'd expect is over amped at 54 hours vs most guidance but it comfortably has the NYC metro all snow still at that point, it's dropped close to .15 already by that time 54 hrs?? Doesn't the rgem only go out to 48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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