2/21-2/23 Weekend Possible Storm

[allgame830]

Yea, that's what I looked at, I was wondering where the 4-8+ was coming from

 

 HAHa.... because those maps are soo accurate!

[BxEngine]

Just got NAM'd, 4-8" and colder than prior run

4-8 where?

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

With 10:1 ratios likely, this map should be accurate for the nams 18z output... Certainly not 4-8. Or 4-6... 3-5 is a better call of the nams output

[IsentropicLift]

The nam goes insane with strong SSE winds at the coast 00-03Z which is why they go to rain, I have noticed models like doing this with SWFEs beyond 48 hours but it ends up not occurring because you never get that gradient the models always think youre going to

Well, this is interesting. These are simulated radar, not a 3 or 6 hour previous QPF panel.

 

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

HAHa.... because those maps are soo accurate!

They are if ratios are expected to be 10:1

[Animal]

Mt Holly NWS 1st call.

They are on a hot streak.

They got the memo from Washington.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I agree with you... but with the current setup on the NAM it likely should be higher accums that the clown maps show. We go down this path ALL the time and to be honest it is getting rather annoying and old. Still civil guys!!

No doubt, but throwing out random 4-8" numbers based off guesses is not helping lol... I'm just saying verbatim what the nam showed...giving a model PBP doesn't mean u agree lol

[SomeWeatherGeek]

Are we really going THIS CRAZY over the NAM guys!!! We do this with EVERY model run!! It is likely to warm still... move on to next models!!

solid run imo. Heaviest precip is snow and the light taint is the morning as the sun comes up it warms the mid levels. I still think this is all frozen for nyc and north. It could get real icy Sunday morning before the precip moves out. If it does move out earlier than modeled chances are it'll mostly be frozen, but if we have lingering showers by Sunday noon than that could easily be rain showers but by than we should have a 3-6 inch snowfall in the nyc proper

[IsentropicLift]

I highly doubt anyone sees better than 8 or 10:1 ratios at most. Even the 12z GFS which everyone here had a love fest for peaked out at 7:1 ratios at KLGA. 40 miles inland different story.

[SomeWeatherGeek]

I highly doubt anyone sees better than 8 or 10:1 ratios at most. Even the 12z GFS which everyone here had a love fest for peaked out at 7:1 ratios at KLGA. 40 miles inland different story.

itll be some heavy wet snow 3-6 is my call.

[christhesnowman]

either way a half inch of liquid looking widespread, areas further north and west will stay frozen longest no reason some areas wont see 6 inches, closer to the coast and nyc looking more in the 1-3 range, that's per this one run of the nam

[IsentropicLift]

Slightly off topic but the 18z NAM is a devastating ice storm for most of the TN Valley.

[atownwxwatcher]

Mt Holly NWS 1st call.

They are on a hot streak.

They got the memo from Washington.

Majority of the guidance shows more then this IMHO at least across the central and southern sections. This will still be adjusted

[SnoSki14]

Mt. Holly looks a bit low but they have done well recently and there's still time for change.

[IsentropicLift]

Here you go, 18z NAM for KLGA

 

150221/1900Z  49  19010KT  28.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
150221/2000Z  50  18011KT  28.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018    9:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
150221/2100Z  51  18013KT  28.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    7:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
150221/2200Z  52  18011KT  28.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    7:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
150221/2300Z  53  17007KT  28.8F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    7:1|  0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0
150222/0000Z  54  17007KT  30.1F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    8:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150222/0100Z  55  16007KT  31.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
150222/0200Z  56  15006KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23    0|  0|100
150222/0300Z  57  15006KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31    0|  0|100
150222/0400Z  58  17008KT  36.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40    0|  0|100
150222/0500Z  59  18009KT  37.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47    0|  0|100
150222/0600Z  60  20011KT  38.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150222/0700Z  61  21011KT  39.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56    0|  0|100
150222/0800Z  62  22010KT  39.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58    0|  0|100
150222/0900Z  63  24009KT  38.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|100
150222/1000Z  64  24009KT  36.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|100
150222/1100Z  65  25007KT  35.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|  0
150222/1200Z  66  25006KT  34.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|  0
 

[IsentropicLift]

Now we go KMMU

 

150221/1900Z  49  17009KT  24.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    7:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
150221/2000Z  50  17010KT  26.0F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    7:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
150221/2100Z  51  18010KT  25.8F  SNOW    5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    6:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0
150221/2200Z  52  18008KT  25.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    8:1|  0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0
150221/2300Z  53  15003KT  25.2F  SNOW   11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    8:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0
150222/0000Z  54  12003KT  25.2F  SNOW    8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046    8:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150222/0100Z  55  09003KT  25.6F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041    8:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22  100|  0|  0
150222/0200Z  56  07003KT  26.0F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044    8:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27  100|  0|  0
150222/0300Z  57  VRB02KT  29.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.070    8:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.34    0|  0|100
150222/0400Z  58  VRB02KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.051    8:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.39    0|  0|100
150222/0500Z  59  VRB02KT  30.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.048    8:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.44    0|  0|100
150222/0600Z  60  22005KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055    8:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.49    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150222/0700Z  61  23006KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051    8:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.54    0|  0|100
150222/0800Z  62  24008KT  34.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    8:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.56    0|  0|100
150222/0900Z  63  25008KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    8:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.59   18|  0| 82
150222/1000Z  64  25008KT  33.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    8:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.59    0|  0|  0
150222/1100Z  65  25007KT  33.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    8:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.59    0|  0|  0
 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Almost .40 of KLGA falls as rain only .19 falls snow

Please one of the posters that jumped on me before tell me how it's all over by the time it flips

[IsentropicLift]

And HPN

 

150221/2000Z  50  18010KT  27.8F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    8:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
150221/2100Z  51  18012KT  27.9F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023    9:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
150221/2200Z  52  18011KT  27.4F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023    8:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0
150221/2300Z  53  18007KT  27.4F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    8:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
150222/0000Z  54  15004KT  27.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033    9:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150222/0100Z  55  14005KT  28.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044    9:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16  100|  0|  0
150222/0200Z  56  13005KT  30.1F  ZRSN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044    9:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21   81|  5| 14
150222/0300Z  57  12006KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070    9:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28    0|  0|100
150222/0400Z  58  13007KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088    9:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37    0|  0|100
150222/0500Z  59  16006KT  35.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088    9:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46    0|  0|100
150222/0600Z  60  19008KT  37.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084    9:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150222/0700Z  61  22009KT  37.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    9:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58    0|  0|100
150222/0800Z  62  24008KT  36.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    9:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|100
150222/0900Z  63  25007KT  36.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    9:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62    0|  0|100
150222/1000Z  64  25008KT  35.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63    0|  0|100
150222/1100Z  65  25006KT  34.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63    0|  0|  0
 

[IsentropicLift]

Even SWF has mixing issues, that should tell you all you need to know

 

150221/1900Z  49  18011KT  23.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
150221/2000Z  50  17009KT  23.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
150221/2100Z  51  17009KT  24.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    8:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
150221/2200Z  52  18009KT  25.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    8:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
150221/2300Z  53  18008KT  25.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    9:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
150222/0000Z  54  18006KT  24.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    8:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150222/0100Z  55  16005KT  25.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    9:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
150222/0200Z  56  15003KT  25.4F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    9:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10  100|  0|  0
150222/0300Z  57  VRB02KT  26.0F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027    9:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0
150222/0400Z  58  VRB01KT  28.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    8:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16  100|  0|  0
150222/0500Z  59  VRB01KT  29.2F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.02|| 0.074    8:1|  1.3|| 0.10|| 0.02|| 0.24    9| 59| 32
150222/0600Z  60  VRB02KT  30.8F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.04|| 0.061    8:1|  1.3|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.30    4| 33| 63
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150222/0700Z  61  VRB02KT  31.9F  ZRSN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    8:1|  1.3|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.35   67| 10| 23
150222/0800Z  62  27003KT  30.8F  SNOW    4:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    8:1|  1.4|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.38  100|  0|  0
150222/0900Z  63  25003KT  29.7F  SNOW    4:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    7:1|  1.5|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.39  100|  0|  0
150222/1000Z  64  24004KT  30.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    7:1|  1.5|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.39    0|  0|  0
 

[Zir0b]

Here you go, 18z NAM for KLGA

 

150221/1900Z  49  19010KT  28.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

150221/2000Z  50  18011KT  28.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018    9:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0

150221/2100Z  51  18013KT  28.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    7:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0

150221/2200Z  52  18011KT  28.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    7:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0

150221/2300Z  53  17007KT  28.8F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    7:1|  0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0

150222/0000Z  54  17007KT  30.1F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    8:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

150222/0100Z  55  16007KT  31.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0

150222/0200Z  56  15006KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23    0|  0|100

150222/0300Z  57  15006KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31    0|  0|100

150222/0400Z  58  17008KT  36.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40    0|  0|100

150222/0500Z  59  18009KT  37.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47    0|  0|100

150222/0600Z  60  20011KT  38.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

150222/0700Z  61  21011KT  39.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56    0|  0|100

150222/0800Z  62  22010KT  39.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58    0|  0|100

150222/0900Z  63  24009KT  38.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|100

150222/1000Z  64  24009KT  36.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|100

150222/1100Z  65  25007KT  35.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|  0

150222/1200Z  66  25006KT  34.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|  0

 

thanks, what a terrible run for the city! looks like the deamplification trend has stopped for now. it could go either way at this point  

[nyblizz44]

Here you go, 18z NAM for KLGA

 

150221/1900Z  49  19010KT  28.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

150221/2000Z  50  18011KT  28.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018    9:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0

150221/2100Z  51  18013KT  28.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    7:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0

150221/2200Z  52  18011KT  28.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    7:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0

150221/2300Z  53  17007KT  28.8F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    7:1|  0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0

150222/0000Z  54  17007KT  30.1F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    8:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

150222/0100Z  55  16007KT  31.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0

150222/0200Z  56  15006KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23    0|  0|100

150222/0300Z  57  15006KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31    0|  0|100

150222/0400Z  58  17008KT  36.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40    0|  0|100

150222/0500Z  59  18009KT  37.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47    0|  0|100

150222/0600Z  60  20011KT  38.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

150222/0700Z  61  21011KT  39.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56    0|  0|100

150222/0800Z  62  22010KT  39.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58    0|  0|100

150222/0900Z  63  24009KT  38.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|100

150222/1000Z  64  24009KT  36.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|100

150222/1100Z  65  25007KT  35.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|  0

150222/1200Z  66  25006KT  34.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60    0|  0|  0

 

Verbatim thats a lil over 3 inches, but thats the NAM outta of its range. If it says same tomorrow with other model support than we can tack a few inches unto our seasonal total & wait for the more important storm on Wed.

[snowman19]

thanks, what a terrible run for the city! looks like the deamplification trend has stopped for now. it could go either way at this point

Another voice of reason.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

For the record I'm not buying the nams solition at all

There's my disclaimer

[Allsnow]

A few days ago that artic high was forcast to be further west...being further east really helping us here

[Allsnow]

Hr 51 light snow in area. Snow line down in central VA

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

A few days ago that artic high was forcast to be further west...being further east really helping us here

I still think we're yet to see our best solution, not only is it further east but the models are likely underestimating it to begin with

[Allsnow]

Hr 57 snow line by Ttn...light on the thump this run

[sussexcountyobs]

Even SWF has mixing issues, that should tell you all you need to know

  Sorry for dumb question, but where is SWF?

150221/1900Z  49  18011KT  23.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0

150221/2000Z  50  17009KT  23.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

150221/2100Z  51  17009KT  24.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    8:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0

150221/2200Z  52  18009KT  25.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    8:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0

150221/2300Z  53  18008KT  25.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    9:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0

150222/0000Z  54  18006KT  24.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    8:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

150222/0100Z  55  16005KT  25.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    9:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0

150222/0200Z  56  15003KT  25.4F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    9:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10  100|  0|  0

150222/0300Z  57  VRB02KT  26.0F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027    9:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0

150222/0400Z  58  VRB01KT  28.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    8:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16  100|  0|  0

150222/0500Z  59  VRB01KT  29.2F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.02|| 0.074    8:1|  1.3|| 0.10|| 0.02|| 0.24    9| 59| 32

150222/0600Z  60  VRB02KT  30.8F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.04|| 0.061    8:1|  1.3|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.30    4| 33| 63

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

150222/0700Z  61  VRB02KT  31.9F  ZRSN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    8:1|  1.3|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.35   67| 10| 23

150222/0800Z  62  27003KT  30.8F  SNOW    4:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    8:1|  1.4|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.38  100|  0|  0

150222/0900Z  63  25003KT  29.7F  SNOW    4:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    7:1|  1.5|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.39  100|  0|  0

150222/1000Z  64  24004KT  30.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    7:1|  1.5|| 0.15|| 0.06|| 0.39    0|  0|  0

[Allsnow]

By hr 60 the snow rain line is north of nyc

[IsentropicLift]

More ice this run near Rt. 80