Animal Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 925 mb freezing line is in north jersey around morris county not until hour 57, by hour 60 it touches ny nj border but precip is over by then storm looks done by hr 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Cold 850's and heavy precipitation, we might hold on to snow till the precipitation lightens a little, it isn't a terrible run by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yeah, total precip is about 0.6", with 0.4"-0.5" of that as snow/frozen, good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 925 mb freezing line is in north jersey around morris county not until hour 57, by hour 60 it touches ny nj border but precip is over by then well I should sayo ver by hour 62/63 so we may end with a couple hours of non frozen/mix bag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 By the time it warms up everyone will see drizzle at best, I've seen these events one too many times...NAM also always too slow bringing precip in so you lose front end snows because it has a massive bias on being too slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Am I blind or stupid? Cause idk how you can tell me that it doesn't change over, exactly when I said It was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 exactly iso it flips around hour 60 and precip shuts off by 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 By the time it warms up everyone will see drizzle at best, I've seen these events one too many times...NAM also always too slow bringing precip in so you lose front end snows because it has a massive bias on being too slow took the words right out of my mouth. Granted areas just N and W will do better, but have seen this setup too many times to not expect a decent dump and then lighter precip to end it. (likely as rain/drizzle) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 exactly iso it flips around hour 60 and precip shuts off by 63 Which is all I said lol, I said its mix up to extreme northern Orange County by 60, never said it rains for 12 hrs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 you are right hour 60 it flips but majority of precip has come down by that point already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 you are right hour 60 it flips but majority of precip has come down by that point already I gotcha, I never said it wasn't lol... Everyone was ready with there keyboards to jump down my throat lmao go back and read my posts, everything's accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 well when u said nam absolutely pours rain I think it got all our snow lovers eyes attention lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 surface and mid levels besides 850 absolutely torch in NYC and coastal plain...any snow that accumulates gets washed awayyes your information is inaccurate. Nam was colder and it shows 95% of its precip as snow. Now to say there's no rain at the end would be incorrect but that would most likely be freezing drizzle or some taint but that would not wash away practically any of the snow accumulations. Next GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Which is all I said lol, I said its mix up to extreme northern Orange County by 60, never said it rains for 12 hrs lol u said pours rain, its basically drizzle by than Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 but yes I agree with you could be a good 4-6 shot followed by some drizzle or rain depending how far south u are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 u said pours rain, its basically drizzle by than Go look at 06z Sunday it's raining dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 yes your information is inaccurate. Nam was colder and it shows 95 of its precip as snow. Now to say there's no rain at the end would be incorrect but that would most likely be freezing drizzle or some taint but that would not wash away practically any of the snow accumulations. Next GFSAdditionally, by hr 63 the 850 0c line is crashing back SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow can we get some clarity here...some say torch while others say 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm confused can someone please tell me how they're coming up with 4-8" im not being negative I just wanna know the meteorological reason, cause 4-6" looks good to me per the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow can we get some clarity here...some say torch while others say 4-64-6 ending as snizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow can we get some clarity here...some say torch while others say 4-6 weatherbell maps have 1-2 City S and E and 2-4 north and west. This is verbatim of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm confused can someone please tell me how they're coming up with 4-8" im not being negative I just wanna know the meteorological reason, cause 4-6" looks good to me per the nam20:1 ratios lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 My guess is that a good portion of what falls between 00z and 06z at the coast is tainted. And what falls between 03z and 09z inland is tainted. I'm not sure most areas ever go over to plain rain, but 925mb temps appear to be the biggest issue. There could also be another sneaky warm layer in there that you would need a sounding to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 weatherbell maps have 1-2 City S and E and 2-4 north and west. This is verbatim of course.Yea, that's what I looked at, I was wondering where the 4-8+ was coming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 weatherbell maps have 1-2 City S and E and 2-4 north and west. This is verbatim of course. Exactly that's why I'm confused why we're throwing around bullish numbers like 4-8" etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 20:1 ratios lollol 10:1 if we're lucky with this storm. Still it'll come down heavy for at least 6-8 hours. Dbz probably in the range of 20-45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Are we really going THIS CRAZY over the NAM guys!!! We do this with EVERY model run!! It is likely to warm still... move on to next models!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Well ratios wont be more than 10-1 so why are people wishcasting 4-8 amounts it would seem the weatherbell map should be accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Are we really going THIS CRAZY over the NAM guys!!! We do this with EVERY model run!! It is likely to warm still... move on to next models!! I totally agree, I just hate how random numbers are thrown out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 My guess is that a good portion of what falls between 00z and 06z at the coast is tainted. And what falls between 03z and 09z inland is tainted. I'm not sure most areas ever go over to plain rain, but 925mb temps appear to be the biggest issue. There could also be another sneaky warm layer in there that you would need a sounding to see. The nam goes insane with strong SSE winds at the coast 00-03Z which is why they go to rain, I have noticed models like doing this with SWFEs beyond 48 hours but it ends up not occurring because you never get that gradient the models always think youre going to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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