IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I haven't seen a system like this all year. It reminds me of that system last March that was so close to hitting the area and just missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 They're currently the leading snow total city In the lower 48 I believe, wouldn't surprise me Yeah they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS shows nothing regarding this storm in the 144 hour range....and as we all know...the new thing is the Euro caving to the GFS (: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Thread proposal: how about we start a thread for threats that are over 96hours out. We can call it '96+ threats' and get model analysis there. Just a thought. It can be a catch all for situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yanks what should we be looking for in future model runs to benefit us We want the GFS to show this storm as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Interesting looking southern stream PV phase this run. Almost looks like a colder version of the Feb 2013 phaser on this Euro run. even bringing up that storm makes me weenie out...all time best for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yanks what should we be looking for in future model runs to benefit us We need to get the system to close off at H5, it came very close this run but didn't get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 100% agreed. Let's start a thread for this Saturday night...it's been good luck with past events lol. Did the GGEM have this? Where will everyone post then..... How about start a post titled "the threat that shall remain un-named" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro has 1-3" per hour rates for about a six hour period. The storm explodes as it reaches SNE. We missed a 12"+ plus storm by about 6 hours.If this happened verbatim, where the storm emerges off the coast, we would have a good chance in this really tilting negative before our latitude. No use specifically analyzing a d6 threat but, loads of potential and a heck of a lot of vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Thread proposal: how about we start a thread for threats that are over 96hours out. We can call it '96+ threats' and get model analysis there. Just a thought. It can be a catch all for situations like this. I agree. We need to have threads on possible storms past 96 hours. It's too short of a span to only be discussing them inside 96 hours due to people worried about jinxing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I agree. We need to have threads on possible storms past 96 hours. It's too short of a span to only be discussing them inside 96 hours due to people worried about jinxing itYup great idea. "Model discussion thread" or something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We need to get the system to close off at H5, it came very close this run but didn't get it done.Best chance we have had all year at h5 closing off for us in a favorable area. NAO is slipping towards neutral if ensembles are correct.. May be just enough to slow this down enough for the energy to consolidate. Again a d6 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 No thread you will %^&* up the juju stop it is early . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Lets keep it on the weekend storm in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Suffolk county does ok too 1.2 - 1.5 LE . .75 plus KNYC Early , will ignore and circle back . Focus on Sat 1st Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I made a end of febuary threat thread so we don't confuse posters on threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I agree. We need to have threads on possible storms past 96 hours. It's too short of a span to only be discussing them inside 96 hours due to people worried about jinxing itWe have a thread for this, it's the monthly discussion thread... Designating threads for a specific event so far out has nothing to do with "jinxing" it, it opens the flood gates for literal interpretations of the models, run after run after run, creating nothing but tension and discordWe all know that model runs beyond 48-72 hours are just nonsense compared to the outcome that may lay ahead, yet we fight over each run as if it's a lock up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I made a end of febuary threat thread so we don't confuse posters on threats Good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If this happened verbatim, where the storm emerges off the coast, we would have a good chance in this really tilting negative before our latitude. No use specifically analyzing a d6 threat but, loads of potential and a heck of a lot of vorticity. Agreed. I am not ready to ignore the Sat-Sun event. Lost in all of this is the chance that north shore snow cover ends up with at least 10" for everyday of February (good so far) with potentially the deepest cover at the end of the month. That's an NNE February for us coastal types and I've been watching complaints all month. MA had 2010, BOS has this month (and we came darned close). It could happen for NYC one of these years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 even bringing up that storm makes me weenie out...all time best for me Having southern stream involvement for a coastal would be a rare treat this winter in which we had to rely on clipper redevelopment for our all snow coastal action. I really hope the Euro is onto something here. And did you notice how cold this run is for the next 10 days? WOW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Having southern stream involvement for a coastal would be a rare treat this winter in which we had to rely on clipper redevelopment for our all snow coastal action. I really hope the Euro is onto something here. And did you notice how cold this run is for the next 10 days? I will say, from what I've seen the past several years, the Southern Stream is the Euros bread and butter. If this type of solution is still on the table at 00z, it may, I'll reiterate, may, be onto something. The Euro catches on very early to southern stream storms in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I will say, from what I've seen the past several years, the Southern Stream is the Euros bread and butter. If this type of solution is still on the table at 00z, it may, I'll reiterate, may, be onto something. The Euro catches on very early to southern stream storms in my experience. BINGO. I wouldn't expect the GFS to even see this yet. The opposite is true of the gfs though, it handles northern stream systems very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Jesus, this entire page is about next weeks storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Computer Guy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Jesus, this entire page is about next weeks storm lol I'm catching up and was seriously thinking the weekend threat miraculously turns into a coastal. side of the brain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Jesus, this entire page is about next weeks storm lol I kind of miss when we had threads for each model run. We could discuss all the 12z model runs in one thread and etc etc for all the other runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 To bring it back to the weekend threat- one thing that I noticed yesterday is that the PNA forecast has been busting low. Today the models reacted a bit, conceding the idea of a Lakes cutter to the presence of the strong H5 negative anomaly over the northeast/mid-Atlantic. I wonder if the fact that the PNA is still running above projected means that there is still room for this to adjust further S/E. Loving that 1046 in Manitoba... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 To bring it back to the weekend threat- one thing that I noticed yesterday is that the PNA forecast has been busting low. Today the models reacted a bit, conceding the idea of a Lakes cutter to the presence of the strong H5 negative anomaly over the northeast/mid-Atlantic. I wonder if the fact that the PNA is still running above projected means that there is still room for this to adjust further S/E. Loving that 1046 in Manitoba...Good catch. Yes, and the EPO has also been incorrectly forecast. It is a bit more negative than models are forecasting and this should theoretically allow for colder air to push a little further into the eastern US. Combine that with an NAO staying more positive as well as east based and a projected dip in the AO and you have a recipe for this s/w (especially sheared out and weak) to be at least halted in its attempts to cut into the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I will say, from what I've seen the past several years, the Southern Stream is the Euros bread and butter. If this type of solution is still on the table at 00z, it may, I'll reiterate, may, be onto something. The Euro catches on very early to southern stream storms in my experience. With the February 2013 phase, the Euro quickly locked in on it about 120 hrs out and never let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Please NO ONE start a thread for this until we are within 4 days or so!!! Lol. It's the only thing we HAVENT tried to get a big one In here Not to mention we'll hate each other for a few less days this 100% agreed. Let's start a thread for this Saturday night...it's been good luck with past events lol. Did the GGEM have this? No thread you will %^&* up the juju stop it is early . I hope all of you are kidding with the jinx crap, especially on a forum devoted to a scientific topic, where superstition should be completely banished, as the meaningless silliness it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I hope all of you are kidding with the jinx crap, especially on a forum devoted to a scientific topic, where superstition should be completely banished, as the meaningless silliness it is. We have a thread for this, it's the monthly discussion thread... Designating threads for a specific event so far out has nothing to do with "jinxing" it, it opens the flood gates for literal interpretations of the models, run after run after run, creating nothing but tension and discord We all know that model runs beyond 48-72 hours are just nonsense compared to the outcome that may lay ahead, yet we fight over each run as if it's a lock up This was my post, the jinxing was a joke dude I mean really, we had freaking thread open for "potential" snow squalls lmao, nobody saw more than a few mood flakes fall out of the sky yet we find the need to be thread happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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