MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GGEM snowmap from Wxbell has 3+ for the entire area with more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I still think you need to reconsider the way you use certain terms. Your usage of "amped" is way off. The flat flow at 6z is the flat flow at 12z. Nothing is amped. Look at the differences in the strength of the vorticy over the mid-west and then towards MO. It's clearly more amped than 06z. 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabiggiu Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GGEM.. This looks pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 With all this radioactive banter you'd think we just had the bust of the century. It's a strung out "low" pressure with some gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GGEM.. This looks pretty Ukie looks similiar to this. Good front end on the ggem with a little rain. Colder than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GGEM is 3-6 area wide, southeastern PA gets some pockets of 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GGEM is 3-6 area wide, southeastern PA gets some pockets of 4-8 Philly gets more than NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 every great lakes cutter has verified weaker since the big xmas eve storm that failed to change the pattern and both types have gotten most of us to an above average season hardly anything to complain about,given how bad this winter could have turned out Very good points.... This is going to be one of the best snowfall comebacks in quite some time with nearly all of it falling from 1/24 on. It's all on the fantastic Pacific blocking providing enough cold despite a strong +AO winter. The sharp seasonal snowfall gradient from Boston to Philly and DC is the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Philly gets more than NYC That's what i said lol southeast PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 12z GFS is definitely a bit stronger with the precipitation. Yes the cutter is not even a storm it weakens as it goes northeast and I wouldn't be surprised if the new models showed a redeveloping low off the New Jersey coast. CMC 12z was a great run imo it shows moderate snow event with a bit of light rain and drizzle as the boundary scoots southeast. Also bluewave made a good point about the models being inconsistent this year, but even late last year we had problems with suppression. This will end up being a 3-6 front end ending as drizzle imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Philly gets more than NYC It's about time This could be a weird scenario where places South and West do better as the front end can only outrun the warming so much. Also it's looking like those areas will get higher initial QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That's what i said lol southeast PA Congrats lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Congrats lol I'm confused.. I said GGEM is 3-6 for NYC and southeast PA has pockets of 4-8; you said Philly gets more than nyc; what am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ukie looks similiar to this. Good front end on the ggem with a little rain. Colder than the GFS.Ukie is 3-6 as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 a modest 2-4 inches in NYC will put the city above normal for seasonal snowfall regardless of what falls rest of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's about time This could be a weird scenario where places South and West do better as the front end can only outrun the warming so much. Also it's looking like those areas will get higher initial QPF In 25 years of memory I have never once seen this occur, I believe maybe some parts of E-PA on 12/28/90 did do a bit better than NYC but that was probably due to banding...any signal where PHL/DCA is getting more snow is likely due to models overdoing BL warmth near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Upton says 2-4" NYC, 3-4" extreme LHV and 4-6" northern orange points north, less as you head south and less west of orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Upton says 2-4" NYC, 3-4" extreme LHV and 4-6" northern orange points north, less as you head south and less west of orangethat makes total sense. Although I would be a bit more bullish for nyc and north. I think nyc gets 3-5, northern counties like yours gets 5-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 In 25 years of memory I have never once seen this occur, I believe maybe some parts of E-PA on 12/28/90 did do a bit better than NYC but that was probably due to banding...any signal where PHL/DCA is getting more snow is likely due to models overdoing BL warmth near NYC I see it happen all the time where DC and BWI get a bigger front end dump than places north and east on these over running events, often times by surprise.I would agree with you that it's more likely that NYC does very well if the places you mentioned making good on the front end assuming enough priest it makes it up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I still like a 2/21/93 scenario with 4" of snow ending as drizzle...only difference is the colder air behind the storm this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NWS also thinks between .10-.18" of ice accumulation for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Maybe we shouldn't even be looking at model details beyond 24-48 since the seasonal trend always magically gets confirmed under 2 days that the models have been playing catch up with all winter. The two types of major winter storms for us this winter: A system that is far enough west that has a good front end thump before any PTYPE issues and surface temps verify colder with less rain than expected. A strong coastal storm that stays all snow that goes too far east for areas west of NYC to cash in on the jackpot. From the looks of the SAI index in the late fall/early winter a lot of us, myself included, was expecting a dominate -AO and -NAO regime. If that was the case, we would be having Boston's dream season right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Upton says 2-4" NYC, 3-4" extreme LHV and 4-6" northern orange points north, less as you head south and less west of orange Seems reasonable looking at the latest models, but things will invariably change in the next couple of days. Just like all the recent storms. The models are strugling...just yesterday it was all about strong cutters torching 3 ft. snowpacks in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif Enjoy the Snowstorm that's on its way... bet we get a habitually bad poster ...intervention very soon--and from the admin of this board no less just a hunch----dm end of my input... for this system I am not a post hog....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif day3_psnow_gt_04.gif Enjoy the Snowstorm that's on its way... bet we get a habitually bad poster ...intervention very soon--and from the admin of this board no less just a hunch----dm end of my input... for this system I am not a post hog....... You're such an HPC shill... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif day3_psnow_gt_04.gif Enjoy the Snowstorm that's on its way... bet we get a habitually bad poster ...intervention very soon--and from the admin of this board no less just a hunch----dm end of my postings...this for system Excellent call on the previous storm for NYC DM. This one is looking good as the models are picking up more on the confluence to our north. a strung out weak system can do just find in this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You're such an HPC shill... Dano Except for Rausch's Twenty Points of QPF map you have me pegged...to a tee !!! http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro weaker and further south so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro looks stronger with the WAA push for our area Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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