christhesnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Some people to stop taking the models verbatim and then spitting out the results like a computer. Models are nice to get an idea of the setup, but its meteorology not modelology. The models are meant to help the forecasters make an educated guess based on setup, trends, different variables, not just print a map out like ur accuweather phone app. And im with Goose on this one. GFS would clock us, this setup and track with all the cold air in place would lead to a lot more snow than the gfs shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It helps it's late February and ocean temps are cold now because such a flow would really warm up the coastal plain. The antecedent airmass is also really cold and it will be tough to eliminate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looking at the snow accum map it appears to me the GFS is torching the BL near the coast because winds are SSW but we have seen in the last month that does little or anything without a strong system or very strong flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not to mention bad modelology. Are you kidding me? You have a 50kt+ mid-level just throwing mid-level warmth directly from the Gulf. Give me a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looking at the snow accum map it appears to me the GFS is torching the BL near the coast because winds are SSW but we have seen in the last month that does little or anything without a strong system or very strong flow. This is warmest panel at the surface, but with all the other levels also above freezing you're not going to overcome a warm BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is still a cutter, the only difference is that the system gets sheared out before it has a chance to cut. So this is a cutter, except that it doesn't cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Are you kidding me? You have a 50kt+ mid-level just throwing mid-level warmth directly from the Gulf. Give me a break. GFS is notorious for underestimating the BL. We have seen this happened this season. I doubt it's going to warm up like what the GFS is showing with a weak low. It's also the only model that hangs the front back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is warmest panel at the surface, but with all the other levels also above freezing you're not going to overcome a warm BL Dont get hung up on one model. Calm done you will have at least 8 gfs and 8 euro runs to analyze before the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 So this is a cutter, except that it doesn't cut. You want to go that route, fine by me, 1014mb near Montreal, that's called a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 1016? Soon it will be a high pressure. What a joke. The panel looks like a glorified cold front for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS is notorious for underestimating the BL. We have seen this happened this season. I doubt it's going to warm up like what the GFS is showing with a weak low. It's also the only model that hangs the front back. Anthony, use your head my friend. The ridge is the source of the warmth here with the clockwise flow around the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's the weakest type of cutter, almost like a cold front. However it can still drive a good amount of warm air north on SW winds and there's no big high to the north. The solution is not set in stone yet however so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Are you kidding me? You have a 50kt+ mid-level just throwing mid-level warmth directly from the Gulf. Give me a break. There is a huge difference between that depiction and the SE flow you would see with a true cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 There is a huge difference between that depiction and the SE flow you would see with a true cutter. The southwest flow is from the clockwise flow around the ridge, but we'll just ignore that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's starting to look like a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You want to go that route, fine by me, 1014mb near Montreal, that's called a cutter Sounds more like weak HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Sounds more like weak HP. I really didn't want to go down that road but you left me no choice. The surface low, however weak it may be, does indeed track over Western NY, and that is indeed a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I love how you are so confident that everyone is going to flip to rain. Ant how does next week look on the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 enough of the bickering. Look at the trends instead of living and dying by every model run. We've trended AWAY from a decent lakes cutter to a vevy weak low...that's the trend the past few days. Means we'll likely see more snow on the front end and less rain on the backend. Anyone looking for 45 and windblown rains is likely to be disappointed based on the 24 hour trend. Whether we get .25 of plain rain or .50 is still to be determined,but based on the trends, thinking we see less plain rain especially given the cold antecendant ai rmass in place. Argues for a decent front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I really didn't want to go down that road but you left me no choice. The surface low, however weak it may be, does indeed track over Western NY, and that is indeed a cutter. If I knew you better, I might understand your posts better, but it seems you are a very literal person working with a narrow definition and missing the big picture. Arguing over the definition of cuter is pointless especially when your definition is so narrowly focused. If it helps, I didn't see anyone posting that this would NOT end as some form of liquid. When I read a one liner that says amped up cutter, I assume something very different than what I am seeing on the models this morning. Unless your job is writing tabloid headlines, I'd rethink those posts before pressing submit. I'm sure you've seen appeals like that posted here before and hopefully one of them will take instead if telling Ant to use his head and all the other passive aggressive shots you direct at people who disagree with you. And while I am venting, stop telling posters you disagree with that "we all think..." or "we all know better...". You do not speak for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 enough of the bickering. Look at the trends instead of living and dying by every model run. We've trended AWAY from a decent lakes cutter to a vevy weak low...that's the trend the past few days. Means we'll likely see more snow on the front end and less rain on the backend. Anyone looking for 45 and windblown rains is likely to be disappointed based on the 24 hour trend. Whether we get .25 of plain rain or .50 is still to be determined,but based on the trends, thinking we see less plain rain especially given the cold antecendant ai rmass in place. Argues for a decent front end thump. Agreed but the weenies don't look at those things, they'll never see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ant how does next week look on the gfs? Nothing on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GGEM has a weak low (about 1007) in central Ohio at 60 hours with snow for us, 850's will probably Rockey northward in the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GGEM has a weak low (about 1007) in central Ohio at 60 hours with snow for us, 850's will probably Rockey northward in the next frame. It doesn't even rocket on the GGEM. It goes north of us and then drop south. It doesn't get hung up like the Goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If I knew you better, I might understand your posts better, but it seems you are a very literal person working with a narrow definition and missing the big picture. Arguing over the definition of cuter is pointless especially when your definition is so narrowly focused. If it helps, I didn't see anyone posting that this would end as some form of liquid. When I read a one liner that says amped up cutter, I assume something very different than what I am seeing on the models this morning. Unless your job is writing tabloid headlines, I'd rethink those posts before pressing submit. I'm sure you've seen appeals like that posted here before and hopefully one of them will take instead if telling Ant to use his head and all the other passive aggressive shots you direct at people who disagree with you. And while I am venting, stop telling posters you disagree with that "we all think..." or "we all know better...". You do not speak for me. Yeah I never made a "amped up cutter post" When I said that it was more amped up I was referring to 500mb at hour 60 over the OH Valley. Here is 06z And now here is 12z Now I know that some people around here only show up when we have a threat, and maybe you're one of them, but ask around. A few posters have dubbed me the most improved poster this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yeah I never made a "amped up cutter post" When I said that it was more amped up I was referring to 500mb at hour 60 over the OH Valley. Here is 06z And now here is 12z Now I know that some people around here only show up when we have a threat, and maybe you're one of them, but ask around. A few posters have dubbed me the most improved poster this season. I still think you need to reconsider the way you use certain terms. Your usage of "amped" is way off. The flat flow at 6z is the flat flow at 12z. Nothing is amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Agreed but the weenies don't look at those things, they'll never see it. Maybe we shouldn't even be looking at model details beyond 24-48 since the seasonal trend always magically gets confirmed under 2 days that the models have been playing catch up with all winter. The two types of major winter storms for us this winter: A system that is far enough west that has a good front end thump before any PTYPE issues and surface temps verify colder with less rain than expected. A strong coastal storm that stays all snow that goes too far east for areas west of NYC to cash in on the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Maybe we shouldn't even be looking at model details beyond 24-48 since the seasonal trend always magically gets confirmed under 2 days that the models have been playing catch up with all winter. The two types of major winter storms for us this winter: A system that is far enough west that has a good front end thump before any PTYPE issues and surface temps verify colder with less rain than expected. A strong coastal storm that stays all snow that goes too far east for areas west of NYC to cash in on the jackpot. every great lakes cutter has verified weaker since the big xmas eve storm that failed to change the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Maybe we shouldn't even be looking at model details beyond 24-48 since the seasonal trend always magically gets confirmed under 2 days that the models have been playing catch up with all winter. The two types of major winter storms for us this winter: A system that is far enough west that has a good front end thump before any PTYPE issues and surface temps verify colder with less rain than expected. A strong coastal storm that stays all snow that goes too far east for areas west of NYC to cash in on the jackpot. and both types have gotten most of us to an above average season hardly anything to complain about,given how bad this winter could have turned out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Maybe we shouldn't even be looking at model details beyond 24-48 since the seasonal trend always magically gets confirmed under 2 days that the models have been playing catch up with all winter. The two types of major winter storms for us this winter: A system that is far enough west that has a good front end thump before any PTYPE issues and surface temps verify colder with less rain than expected. A strong coastal storm that stays all snow that goes too far east for areas west of NYC to cash in on the jackpot. Very good points.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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