IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Also the more robust precip makes it a lot further North, well into Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Moderate rain most areas by Sunday daybreak. Rain/Snow line about 50 miles NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Boston gets a good soaking. Front hung up over the area on Sunday right along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 1-2" at best on a front end dump Saturday night. I wonder if the final result is ice storm city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Over to plain rain from I-80 south by 06z Sunday morning. How much on the front end snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Snow to rain on this run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like 0.75"+ contour runs right along the NJ TPK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 1-2" at best on a front end dump Saturday night. I wonder if the final result is ice storm city? With the way this winter has gone, I wouldn't be shocked. GFS hangs the front which causes heights to rise. GFS is the only model doing this so we have to see if it is overplaying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Snow to rain on this run . Not a lot of rain. You have that backwards, not a lot of snow with some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You have that backwards, not a lot of snow with some rain. 2-4 inches on the GFS before it turns to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 SV maps have a coating to 2" in spots. Maybe a bit underdone? Some of what falls before the changever is probably sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 2-4 inches on the GFS before it turns to rain. SV maps don't show 2-4" anywhere until you're in PA or Upstate NY/New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 SV maps don't show 2-4" anywhere until you're in PA or Upstate NY/New England. It looks more frozen than that. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If the GFS solution verified we'd get clocked with snow, don't believe it verbatim, and the lifting is impressive ahead of this, this is one of those overrunning events that you really need to watch for to surprise you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If the GFS solution verified we'd get clocked with snow, don't believe it verbatim, and the lifting is impressive ahead of this, this is one of those overrunning events that you really need to watch for to surprise you. I would agree that Saturday night will need to be watched, I'm just saying that the GFS verbatim was definitly warmer after whatever initially falls Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I would agree that Saturday night will need to be watched, I'm just saying that the GFS verbatim was definitly warmer after whatever initially falls Saturday night. Its probably overdoing surface warmth again, the fact it gives DCA more snow than us is a warning sign, DCA never does better than NYC on this sort of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If you want to call a 1016 mb low amped up then so be it. It still looks like a mess to me and if the low is that weak I don't see us warming up that much. The Nam being S&E is a red flag as it tends to always be amped up in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This run was more favorable for our area. Do I really need to break out the surface temp comparison maps to show you how it was warmer than 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Meteorology, not modelology. In this setup thats mostly snow or sleet for NYC. The GFS is notorious for being to warm in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Do I really need to break out the surface temp comparison maps to show you how it was warmer than 06z? I guess the GFS never overestimates surface temps. You are not warming up like this with a weak low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Let's go to the video replay Steve.... Notice how much stronger the energy is this run over Southern IL and then into the TN Valley. 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Do I really need to break out the surface temp comparison maps to show you how it was warmer than 06z? Forget it unless you're blind then it's not hard to see that the 12z is clearly warmer than 06z. That doesn't mean it's correct but verbatim it is warmer by a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I guess the GFS never overestimates surface temps. You are not warming up like this with a weak low.For the love of God, he's not making a forecast, just relaying that verbatim this is a warmer run (which it very clearly is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The setup is fairly similar to 2/22/08, the only difference is there is a GL low feature this time, but its becoming apparent that is going to be more or less meaningless since models just never phase it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I guess the GFS never overestimates surface temps. You are not warming up like this with a weak low. Exactly. No big transport of southerly or SW winds with a weak low. It's a glorified SWFE that will likely drop a decent front end dump of 2-4 or 3-6 and then go to light rain or drizzle to end it. Cold air in front of it and models always underdo the CAD or try to kick it out faster than what will actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Forget it unless you're blind then it's not hard to see that the 12z is clearly warmer than 06z. That doesn't mean it's correct but verbatim it is warmer by a bit. Exactly, nobody is saying that the GFS is the final outcome, I just don't know how you could say it was a more favorable run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I guess the GFS never overestimates surface temps. You are not warming up like this with a weak low. I wouldn't focus too much on the strength of the surface low. The southwesterly low- to mid-level flow is pretty difficult to overlook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 A few inches. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Similar thoughts were reflected in some of the local NWS products as well, Albany in particular. As they say, meteorology, not modelology. Not to mention bad modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I wouldn't focus too much on the strength of the surface low. The southwesterly low- to mid-level flow is pretty difficult to overlook: This has been the pattern all season with a front end thump of snow then going to ice and the surface ends up verifying colder than the models expected since they underestimated low level CAD. They key is getting most of the precip as snow on a front end that comes in faster leaving less precip to fall as ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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