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2/21-2/23 Weekend Possible Storm


Zelocita Weather

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Pretty soon we'll be high and dry as everything misses to the South.

That would actually be comical-from 50's and inches of rain to 32 degrees and smoking cirrus.  Models have been atrocious in the mid range this year.   They just don't see the cold until 3 days prior and then adjust.

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That would actually be comical-from 50's and inches of rain to 32 degrees and smoking cirrus.  Models have been atrocious in the mid range this year.   They just don't see the cold until 3 days prior and then adjust.

Yeah, the globals have really struggled this Winter, especially outside of 48 hours.

 

The temperature profiles looks awfully strange with 850's only reaching +1 or +2C and surface temps into at least the upper 30's to lower 40's. I suspect that the models should be showing more of a snow to ice scenario given that CAD helps the low levels stay colder while the mid-levels warm from the WAA.

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At this point, not only do I think its possible, but more probable that the heaviest snow axis with this is to our south. Not that we'll not pop above freezing at some point, but the best lift/dynamics into the cold look the best south of us right now. 

 

Amazing change on the models so quickly...

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Similar thoughts were reflected in some of the local NWS products as well, Albany in particular. As they say, meteorology, not modelology.

Albany had a good write up on this yesterday when models showed the major rain push all the way up to them... With these models so awful in the mid/short range, I'll be paying much more attention to the pro mets at the NWS

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When I said to hug the CMC a few days ago everyone was like no this will be a rain event. Heck most people had locked the rain solution yesterday but that's quickly changing in a good way. Hope the trends continue!

Whatever comes in after the initial push is going to either be a mix or rain. We may get relatively lucky with a strong front end dump and then not much else afterwards, in which case you could end up being right, but for the wrong reasons.

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When I said to hug the CMC a few days ago everyone was like no this will be a rain event. Heck most people had locked the rain solution yesterday but that's quickly changing in a good way. Hope the trends continue!

You said that a few days ago? Can you link us up to that post? Thats a good call.

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