IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks how much far south the GEFS have came with the precip. 12z yesterday 6z today Pretty soon we'll be high and dry as everything misses to the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Pretty soon we'll be high and dry as everything misses to the South. Should we say congrats DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Pretty soon we'll be high and dry as everything misses to the South. That would actually be comical-from 50's and inches of rain to 32 degrees and smoking cirrus. Models have been atrocious in the mid range this year. They just don't see the cold until 3 days prior and then adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That would actually be comical-from 50's and inches of rain to 32 degrees and smoking cirrus. Models have been atrocious in the mid range this year. They just don't see the cold until 3 days prior and then adjust. Yeah, the globals have really struggled this Winter, especially outside of 48 hours. The temperature profiles looks awfully strange with 850's only reaching +1 or +2C and surface temps into at least the upper 30's to lower 40's. I suspect that the models should be showing more of a snow to ice scenario given that CAD helps the low levels stay colder while the mid-levels warm from the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 At this point, not only do I think its possible, but more probable that the heaviest snow axis with this is to our south. Not that we'll not pop above freezing at some point, but the best lift/dynamics into the cold look the best south of us right now. Amazing change on the models so quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Kudos to PB, DM, and Cisco in particular. That writeup yesterday in the face of most guidance being against his (her?) thinking was balls out. Similar thoughts were reflected in some of the local NWS products as well, Albany in particular. As they say, meteorology, not modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That's why nothing was locked in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Similar thoughts were reflected in some of the local NWS products as well, Albany in particular. As they say, meteorology, not modelology. Albany had a good write up on this yesterday when models showed the major rain push all the way up to them... With these models so awful in the mid/short range, I'll be paying much more attention to the pro mets at the NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 When I said to hug the CMC a few days ago everyone was like no this will be a rain event. Heck most people had locked the rain solution yesterday but that's quickly changing in a good way. Hope the trends continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 When I said to hug the CMC a few days ago everyone was like no this will be a rain event. Heck most people had locked the rain solution yesterday but that's quickly changing in a good way. Hope the trends continue! Whatever comes in after the initial push is going to either be a mix or rain. We may get relatively lucky with a strong front end dump and then not much else afterwards, in which case you could end up being right, but for the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 When I said to hug the CMC a few days ago everyone was like no this will be a rain event. Heck most people had locked the rain solution yesterday but that's quickly changing in a good way. Hope the trends continue! You said that a few days ago? Can you link us up to that post? Thats a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 No not really. I said the high would push the boundary much more south. I think we snow to a period of drizzle and the boundary pushes south and moves gradually to sea. This is a good snow event for us if the models trend just another 50-75 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM has the Precipitation really far south in the Ohio river valley, let's see what it translates to over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The NAM has a few inches Saturday night, and at this point looks to be trending towards keeping us dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 1020mb sorry excuse for a low. More like a weak area of high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The NAM has a few inches Saturday night, and at this point looks to be trending towards keeping us dry.ill take it as long as we don't rain. I know you like snow more than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nice thump on the nam. 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I can't seem to find the post where you said that. Interesting When I said to hug the CMC a few days ago everyone was like no this will be a rain event. Heck most people had locked the rain solution yesterday but that's quickly changing in a good way. Hope the trends continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like temps will never break freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nice thump on the nam. 3-6hey can I ask you something? The nam almost looks like a miller A storm now, can this trend stronger to actually give us a true miller a? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow, NAM is a very nice run. 3-6" maybe a little frizzle at the end, then the cold air rushed back in. 0 plain rain ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yikes, based off the NAM being so flat I'm guessing the final outcome is going to keep this pretty far South and weak. Have to hope the front end WAA stays the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yikes, based off the NAM being so flat I'm guessing the final outcome is going to keep this pretty far South and weak. Have to hope the front end WAA stays the course.being so close to the event this looks like a good dumping snow event for us. 3-6 is fine as long as no rain is involved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yikes, based off the NAM being so flat I'm guessing the final outcome is going to keep this pretty far South and weak. Have to hope the front end WAA stays the course. Snow > Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 hey can I ask you something? The nam almost looks like a miller A storm now, can this trend stronger to actually give us a true miller a? This is a miller C, the "C" stands for Crap. Please don't call this a miller A, they don't want to be associated with this piece of garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Snow > Rain I'll take my front end dump and then my heavy rain please. I need to get rid of the salt that has been on my driveway for what seems like months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is a miller C, the "C" stands for Crap. Please don't call this a miller A, they don't want to be associated with this piece of garbage. Your upset going from rain and 40's to 3-6" and no temps above 30-35f??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 hey can I ask you something? The nam almost looks like a miller A storm now, can this trend stronger to actually give us a true miller a? it's more like a SWFE event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 being so close to the event this looks like a good dumping snow event for us. 3-6 is fine as long as no rain is involved! So when the models trend weaker and even further South are going to say that cloudy skies are better than snow as long as no rain is involved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Your upset going from rain and 40's to 3-6" and no temps above 30-35f??? This isn't going to be the final outcome, don't you see the writing on the wall? Supression City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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