MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Navgem is also a lot weaker fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Navgem is also a lot weaker fwiwAre you shocked? Every model tonight has trended to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro is cold for the entire event now. LOL amazing...its so different than its 12z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro is way colder and way less amplified. Our area is mostly frozen with some rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The Euro has 850s below 0 throughout the whole event until the end. It shreds the storm to pieces. These models are really terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 yup. Well...Ill take this over last nights solution. I'd much rather 2-4 inches of snow, and then no wash out after the fact. Hopefully the colder trend continues, and if it's weak...well..so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The Euro has 850s below 0 throughout the whole event. It shreds the storm to pieces. These models are really terrible.how much snow on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 how much snow on it? It warms up when most of the precip is over. This isn't even a storm on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 How warm does it get. Amazing how everything trended towards the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro has the day 5-6 storm right on the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 how much snow on it? The surface torches... still upper 30s/low 40s throughout event but 850s are only 1 or 2 degrees above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro has the day 5-6 storm right on the benchmark I was just seeing that and thinking....meh....give it 36-48 hours and it will cave to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I was just seeing that and thinking....meh....give it 36-48 hours and it will cave to the GFS lol The surface torches... still upper 30s/low 40s throughout event but 850s are only 1 or 2 degrees above freezing. Great trends. Wouldn't be shocked to see it trend even south and colder given what has happened this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro has the day 5-6 storm right on the benchmark Boston blizzard at Hr 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Boston blizzard at Hr 168 Yep. Need this to be a little closer to the coast so a lot more people would get a MECS/ HECS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is will be a front end thump and by the time the BL warms most of the damage will be done . There is just too much cold air in front of this , to it`s N and to it`s `W that should push this the way of the pattern . The models don`t see low cold air until its in it`s face , we saw that 2 weeks ago . It does not like to fully rain in NEG EPO cold confluent patterns in mid winter . There is to much HP slipping through the lakes . You already saw how far the Euro corrected from 12z yesterday wait a few days and see where this trends to . It should trend to the pattern . The Euro and NAM now see this . The NAVGEM and UKIE are stepping to it ., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The Euro and NAM now see this . The NAVGEM and UKIE are stepping to it .,Nice call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This looks like an event that brings 3-6 inches of snow, that then ends as drizzle w/ temps no better than 33 at the warmest. Looking like a blizzard for LI and S/E New England the middle of next week. I don't see no end to the cold and stormy pattern thru at least 3/25. I bet March 2015 is a -10 to -12 departure month. The models are saying no pattern change for at least several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 PB nails almost every storm. It's amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think DM also had the right idea. The gfs is now much colder both aloft and at the surface. It's almost completely frozen and would actually give us a really nice snow event (3-6/4-8") before any changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Gfs 06z even colder for the front end 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nice discussion and forecast by Cisco at hpc yesterday, ignoring models and forecasting by pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 On gfs/nam strong hints at a huge overrunning event Virginia/DC (4-8"+) with initial strong and quick push of moisture into cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 06 GFS is even colder for BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Still a long way to go, but I don't think the models blew the forecast at 4 days out, imho. The majority of them had that pig of an arctic high dropping in west of the lakes. Combined with a pretty fast flow at the 250 jet streak, a sheard out mess is still in the cards. If it cuts, so be it; but I think this might go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nice call. Thank you man . Not 100 % there, and DM was on this earlier too but I love how these models just miss low level cold air until it`s in their face and they are forced to run under the confluence and to the warm air . ( The water ) . There may be some rain with this , but these are the types of systems that by the time you rain and or drizzle the damage will have been done . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Kudos to PB, DM, and Cisco in particular. That writeup yesterday in the face of most guidance being against his (her?) thinking was balls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Much of Long Island is at or over 1" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks how much far south the GEFS have came with the precip. 12z yesterday 6z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1046 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015 VALID 12Z SAT FEB 21 2015 - 12Z WED FEB 25 2015 RELIED ON THE FASTER, FLATTER GUIDANCE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH DEFERENCE TO THE PRIMACY OF COLD AIR. MUCH AS THE MODELS THIS TIME LAST WEEK WERE WONT TO LIFT THE CURTAIN OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE EAST TO ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO PASS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE TIME FRAME VERIFYING YESTERDAY AND TODAY--WITH A FLATTER, COLDER WAVE THE REALITY--BELIEVE THAT A SIMILAR ISSUE EXISTS FOR THE WAVE CROSSING THE EAST THIS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE MSC MEAN--CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN--AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR THE NATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A TEMPORARY DIP IN THE JET OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL HELP TO URGE THE CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA NORTHWARD--THE EFFECTS OF BOTH SYSTEMS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ONCE THE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST ROCKETS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ENTIRE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. CISCO So far looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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