rossi Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Solid front end dump Saturday night. I still believe that we get at least 2-4" before any mixing, especially in NJ and PA. Getting weaker each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's hanging the front back more so the cold sector is trying to fill in on Sunday night, especially over Western PA/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 mb of low? 1012mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Has there ever been a cutter that did not produce rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 1012mb Weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 gfs is a weak sheared out cutter…we get more front end frozen then we do rain this run…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Just a bit of perspective from over the pond... we've had falling snow 4 times here this winter...it stuck on only 1 occasion...around 4-6cm and it was washed away by an Alantic low the next morning. Give me 2-4 before some rain, everyday of the week. (Oh and the 100 inches some of you lucky sons of guns have below that ) You lot in the US have a brillant climate, the best in the world. Enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 1015mb low over Lake Ontario. while the ridge is stronger the energy is weaker. Sort of offsetting. that's barely even a low pressure-wow. Weak stuff vs the Euro/CMC. Might be one of those 2-4 inch deals, then drizzle and 35 degrees for 6-12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 follow up wave gives the area 1-3 monday morning of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Possible flip back to snow early Monday morning as the front crosses. Some weenie solution that will never verify. Just a total mess. Still have several days to go. The positively tilted trough does not scream strong system, but I thought we would at least break 1000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Has there ever been a cutter that did not produce rain? This is one sorry excuse for a cutter. I don't know what you would call this. Take er out back and shoot it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Just a bit of perspective from over the pond... we've had falling snow 4 times here this winter...it stuck on only 1 occasion...around 4-6cm and it was washed away by an Alantic low the next morning. Give me 2-4 before some rain, everyday of the week. (Oh and the 100 inches some of you lucky sons of guns have below that ) You lot in the US have a brillant climate, the best in the world. Enjoy it! Lol wrong thread most of us are under 40 inches. Go to the New England Thread for 80+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 gfs is a weak sheared out cutter…we get more front end frozen then we do rain this run…. Great news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What a bore fest this Winter has turned into. Every strong low pressure system trends weaker and weaker as the event approaches. Every long duration event trends towards 6-12hours and every short event trends towards nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is trending more towards a snowpack builder than an eater...very reflective of earlier HPC discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Doesn't even look like Chicago gets a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What a bore fest this Winter has turned into. Every strong low pressure system trends weaker and weaker as the event approaches. Every long duration event trends towards 6-12hours and every short event trends towards nothing. that's been the seasonal trend. Interesting battle b/w the GFS and Euro/CMC here with the latter two much deeper/wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Say what you want about this run, the WAR was stronger this run and the system almost gets completely squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro will probably cave, GFS keeps trending weaker and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 that's been the seasonal trend. Interesting battle b/w the GFS and Euro/CMC here with the latter two much deeper/wetter.18z GFS loves doing stuff like this, always has. If it does it again at 0z, then maybe it's on to something. It'll be interesting to see if this solution has gefs support. It is worlds away from the euro, ggem and ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What a bore fest this Winter has turned into. Every strong low pressure system trends weaker and weaker as the event approaches. Every long duration event trends towards 6-12hours and every short event trends towards nothing. I cannot say that I have had a foot in less than a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 that's been the seasonal trend. Interesting battle b/w the GFS and Euro/CMC here with the latter two much deeper/wetter. Unbelievable how every storm this Winter has trended weaker and weaker, for one reason or another. I guess this is a win for the flood prone areas and those concerned about roof collapses which is a very good thing, but from a weather enthusiasts standpoint, weak sauce is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Say what you want about this run, the WAR was stronger this run and the system almost gets completely squashed. It doesn't matter the energy gets sheared out regardless. There's no phasing it looks like and it looks more like a glorified cold front. The trough is very positively tilted which will do nothing for the low. If it trends any weaker then so will the warm push it might be like upper 30s/40 and drizzle most of the day after a few inches on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro will probably cave, GFS keeps trending weaker and weaker.But the thing is it's not just the euro, the ggem and ukmet were all similar. Let's see what the gefs does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I would think that monster of an arctic high that is progged to drop down on the west side of the lakes will prevent this storm from being overly wound up. A strung out mess is more in line with what we have seen in our area this month. What are the jet streaks at 250 looking like? Without a -NAO, wouldn't the progressive pattern allow this to slide off to the north east, as opposed to cut to Hudson Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The isentropic lift and WAA is so insanely strong on the GFS and NAM 75-84 hours that someone could get hit with one heck of a nasty overrunning snow band before flipping to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The isentropic lift and WAA is so insanely strong on the GFS and NAM 75-84 hours that someone could get hit with one heck of a nasty overrunning snow band before flipping to rain.Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I would think that monster of an arctic high that is progged to drop down on the west side of the lakes will prevent this storm from being overly wound up. A strung out mess is more in line with what we have seen in our area this month. What are the jet streaks at 250 looking like? Without a -NAO, wouldn't the progressive pattern allow this to slide off to the north east, as opposed to cut to Hudson Bay?Yes. That's why if the s/w does not consolidate it's energy, it will be very hard pressed to cut north. Additionally, the high dropping from the west may be enough to keep it under rather than allowing it to ride north as the high continues to build east. In other words, the magnitude of the high pressure system building in could keep the storm underneath it if it moves east quickly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Cisco ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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