Metasequoia Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Remember that map is in 24hr intervals, So while the 850 0 line is East of us on that map, the precip had fallen 24 hours ago.That makes for interpreting a map difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Look at the extended forecast that Zelocita Weather posted above. Granted, it's from College Park, MD That's just where the HPC is based. Their text products are valid for the whole country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That's just where the HPC is based. Their text products are valid for the whole country. Thanks for the info. Regardless it's quite a jarring forecast discussion in light of the models that came out prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Remember that map is in 24hr intervals, So while the 850 0 line is East of us on that map, the precip had fallen 24 hours ago. If you prefer I can show you the panel before which still shows all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What is HPC looking at? Most of the guidance went West today and they go East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 What is HPC looking at? Most of the guidance went West today and they go East. See my excerpt from HPC above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Maybe they see something that is being in inproperly sampled by models? Otherwise I'm at a loss. Would love it if they were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What is HPC looking at? Most of the guidance went West today and they go East. Their discussion is absolutely mind boggling given the 12z operational and ensembles runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Their discussion is absolutely mind boggling given the 12z operational and ensembles runs It was posted at 10:46 AM, but the preceding models were mostly cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Their discussion is absolutely mind boggling given the 12z operational and ensembles runsI spoke with a another met friend of mine and his explanation was :"Theme of the season - progressive and suppressed. Last cutter we had was in late December with - NAO. NAO is screaming positive. We also have a very cold air mass in place before it moves in, and models have continuously underestimated it this year. I think this thing will be very strung out and fast moving" In other words, he doesn't believe in the amped solution, and I can see his point, nor do I explicitly buy an amped solution at this point. With the NAO in firm positive territory as well as East based, and the flow still screaming, it will be hard pressed to consolidate this energy. If this s/w remains strung out (as they all have trended inside of 48 hours) , it won't cut the way it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 NAM nice front end (2-4/3-5) dump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The NAM finds a way to give North and Central NJ a nasty ice storm And then the heavy rain is looming down in the Mid-Atlantic if the run continued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Surface low to Louisville on the NAM, pretty much like the Euro and GGEM, tells you that this probably ends up a tick East at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 So for now its mainly a rain event for NJ area...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 NAM nice front end (2-4/3-5) dump...ill take the thump of snow before the heavy rains. I just hope Boston or any other NE region doesn't get flooded. Honestly it's concerning even here with near a foot of snow on the ground.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I agree , yeh this will slip between those 2 HPs Those aren`t just structures , they are people `s homes . I hope SNE stays as dry as could possibly be . I hope this goes to Chicago , they dry slot and they melt their base over time . An inch plus of water on top of 6ft cover is awful . Thankfully no one is rooting for that at least that`s the hope not only the rooftops, but the runoff has no where to go with all of those stormdrains blocked by ice and snow UGHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 So for now its mainly a rain event for NJ area...?this looks like 2-4 inches of slop than heavy rain most models show this. Except the euro is some rain as a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 So for now its mainly a rain event for NJ area...? Not for now! This is going to be mainly a rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I spoke with a another met friend of mine and his explanation was : "Theme of the season - progressive and suppressed. Last cutter we had was in late December with - NAO. NAO is screaming positive. We also have a very cold air mass in place before it moves in, and models have continuously underestimated it this year. I think this thing will be very strung out and fast moving" In other words, he doesn't believe in the amped solution, and I can see his point, nor do I explicitly buy an amped solution at this point. With the NAO in firm positive territory as well as East based, and the flow still screaming, it will be hard pressed to consolidate this energy. If this s/w remains strung out (as they all have trended inside of 48 hours) , it won't cut the way it's showing. That was kind of my thinking earlier after seeing the 12Z runs. Now I feel smart that HPC is thinking like me, lol. Like someone said earlier a flatter solution isn't necessarily a good thing if it just means the low winds up closer with most of this forum still warm-sectored in the heavier precip. It would probably increase the front end dump/slop. From a pattern perspective I think it just makes sense, but I'm no met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Through 24hrs the 18z GFS is just the slightest tick stronger with the WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hopefully the temp will drop more. Oh yea what are the chances to drop to the freezing point around NJ area to stay all snow. Is this even possible with the current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hopefully the temp will drop more. Oh yea what are the chances to drop to the freezing point around NJ area to stay all snow. Is this even possible with the current system. First part Second part: No Chance Third part: Just no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 18z GFS is coming in more amped up. Nails flying into coffins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Solid front end dump Saturday night. I still believe that we get at least 2-4" before any mixing, especially in NJ and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Over to moderate rain by 4-5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That was kind of my thinking earlier after seeing the 12Z runs. Now I feel smart that HPC is thinking like me, lol. Like someone said earlier a flatter solution isn't necessarily a good thing if it just means the low winds up closer with most of this forum still warm-sectored in the heavier precip. It would probably increase the front end dump/slop. From a pattern perspective I think it just makes sense, but I'm no met. JB still thinks there is a possibility that this could still reform off the coast as the Midwest low pressure encounters the cold and transfers it's energy. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 1015mb low over Lake Ontario. while the ridge is stronger the energy is weaker. Sort of offsetting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I hate when it rains around the 4-6 am period. It's usually when temps are coldest here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What a meh run, barely a surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What a meh run, barely a surface low. mb of low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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