Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 goes just se of DET….sunday 12z hr 99 rain from MASS-south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 No, this isn't our typical lakes cutter, it heads East and rides the boundary. Yep, coming through at 102 hours with rain for NYC and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 similar track to ggem….but def not as strong…..looks like ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Most of the rain so far is over PA, NJ and NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You mean the Euro is real amped in the 72-96 hour range? I've never seen that before.... [sarcasm intended] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Rain all the way up to Maine on the euro. Terrible. Flash freeze after that as the bottom drops with the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You mean the Euro is real amped in the 72-96 hour range? I've never seen that before.... [sarcasm intended] Huh? The only model that trended less amplified today is the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You mean the Euro is real amped in the 72-96 hour range? I've never seen that before.... [sarcasm intended] All of the models show this type of solution for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 surface temps in the 40's for sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's a relatively dry run for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You think this cutter can act as a favorable player to increase snow chances next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 basically a cold front for our area and the sne... .50+ of rain….not going to be a big issue verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's a relatively dry run for I-95. Good news and then a major freeze and lets hope a snow storm for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 surface temps in the 40's for sunday afternoon Snow cover FTL You think this cutter can act as a favorable player to increase snow chances next week? Have to see where it sets up shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Good news and then a major freeze and lets hope a snow storm for next week Good indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Huh? The only model that trended less amplified today is the GFS. Just clarifying that this is not a snow setup for us so there's no weenie undertones here but a mid-range amplification on the CMC and Euro has been happening almost every storm this winter. There's nothing to keep this cold. I just don't buy the amped solutions. My money is on this going flatter and less impressive for basically everyone. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 From all the guidance looks like this wont do much damage to NE snowpack. Maybe 0.75-1.25" LE, some of that frozen with temps mostly in the 30's with maybe a brief spike to 40-43 for a few hours when most of the precip is done already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well if we assume that the models are probably a touch too amplified then we're in for one hell of a rainstorm when the surface low trends a tick southeast over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The SLP is moving east or northeast? Because that makes the difference with the storm following this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well if we assume that the models are probably a touch too amplified then we're in for one hell of a rainstorm when the surface low trends a tick southeast over the next few days. Or maybe initial mid level warmth winds up being less and we get a high qpf slop to rain to slop event - something similar I believe to the GFS from a day or two ago? I think this could still go a few different ways. Hopefully it just stays drier overall I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Can we lock that Euro run right now. That's like 0.2" liquid and we get to 50* for a day out this way. I'm fine with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 From all the guidance looks like this wont do much damage to NE snowpack. Maybe 0.75-1.25" LE, some of that frozen with temps mostly in the 30's with maybe a brief spike to 40-43 for a few hours when most of the precip is done already. It can still cause a lot of roof damage as any rain will be absorbed by the snow pack increasing the weight of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What time does the precip move in for this event on the models on Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It can still cause a lot of roof damage as any rain will be absorbed by the snow pack increasing the weight of the snow. As long as it's under an inch of qpf I think things will be mostly okay for Boston. I think the bigger issue is the thaw in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1046 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015VALID 12Z SAT FEB 21 2015 - 12Z WED FEB 25 2015RELIED ON THE FASTER, FLATTER GUIDANCE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH DEFERENCE TO THE PRIMACY OF COLD AIR. MUCH AS THE MODELS THIS TIME LAST WEEKWERE WONT TO LIFT THE CURTAIN OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE EAST TO ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO PASS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE TIME FRAME VERIFYING YESTERDAY AND TODAY--WITH A FLATTER, COLDER WAVE THEREALITY--BELIEVE THAT A SIMILAR ISSUE EXISTS FOR THE WAVE CROSSING THE EAST THIS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE MSC MEAN--CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN--AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR THE NATIONTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A TEMPORARY DIP IN THE JET OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL HELP TO URGE THE CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA NORTHWARD--THE EFFECTS OF BOTH SYSTEMS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ONCE THE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST ROCKETS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATIONIS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ENTIRE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 While we wait for the 18z runs, the 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Basically the extended forecast discussion says don't pay attention to any model except the JMA or NAM. That's a bit suspect...they are the professionals though. I still can't rule out the possibility that the models make huge shifts in the next couple of days. This last storm was modeled as a cutter 5 or so days out and ultimately went mostly out to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Basically the extended forecast discussion says don't pay attention to any model except the JMA or NAM. That's a bit suspect...they are the professionals though. ?? Come again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 While we wait for the 18z runs, the 12z JMA 01.gif Remember that map is in 24hr intervals, So while the 850 0 line is East of us on that map, the precip had fallen 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Look at the extended forecast that Zelocita Weather posted above. Granted, it's from College Park, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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