Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gefs mean weaker then the operational..1016...2-4 on front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If it does, that would almost certainly be the last hurrah for this winter. Real good agreement that after next Sunday (3/1), every teleconnection goes very unfavorable for cold/snow and it's all she wrote... Don't be so sure, the GFS ensembles are already showing the PNA and AO going back up and down respectively near the Day 10-12 period...its possible this will be a brief dip and spike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The rain is just nature's way of making room for more snow. Do you realize what 2" of rain and temps in the 50's would do to a 4 foot snowpack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Do you realize what 2" of rain and temps in the 50's would do to a 4 foot snowpack? No surprise that most of this subforum won't care since NYC/LI won't have any issues and that accounts for a huge portion of the people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The lag continues with the 12z gfs. It keeps wintry weather alive even as we enter March. Until the models show a complete breakdown of the pattern under 10 days then winter weather will probably continue so I think you're right Yanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Don't be so sure, the GFS ensembles are already showing the PNA and AO going back up and down respectively near the Day 10-12 period...its possible this will be a brief dip and spike Euro weeklies were not buying that at all...the gefs are the only one that had this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Do you realize what 2" of rain and temps in the 50's would do to a 4 foot snowpack? It's not something I want to see up there in NE. I am worried for them. I was just referring to our mini snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gfs delivers a beautiful parting gift as met winter comes to a close Feb 28-March 1.Both euro and gfs are honing in on this potential, which would coincide with a large scale pattern shift if the American model teleconnections are being forecasted correctly. *FANTASY LAND * however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro weeklies were not buying that at all...the gefs are the only one that had this Euro weeklies have been **** along with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's not something I want to see up there in NE. I am worried for them. I was just referring to our mini snow pack. It's not only New England at risk, but they have the greatest risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I said this in the march thread winter weather will be over after march 10 but the first ten days of march we will see a storm. But i wouldn't be surprised if we see winter weather after the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Both euro and gfs are honing in on this potential, which would coincide with a large scale pattern shift if the American model teleconnections are being forecasted correctly. *FANTASY LAND * however.Yes, just before the start of a major large scale regime shift is when some epic storms happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro weeklies have been **** along with the Euro. I was referring to the break down of the pattern Anthony…..the weeklies didn't buy it….stop being a uber weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I was referring to the break down of the pattern Anthony…..the weeklies didn't buy it….stop being a uber weenie I thought I saw the weeklies being really warm. I must be delusional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I said this in the march thread winter weather will be over after march 10 but the first ten days of march we will see a storm. But i wouldn't be surprised if we see winter weather after the 10th Yes, I doubt we will repeat last year's March snow drought in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yes, I doubt we will repeat last year's March snow drought in these parts.It was a snow drought but last March was crazy cold just relentless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It was a snow drought but last March was crazy cold just relentless A very frustrating time with all that wasted cold except for the MA. I'd like to see an early Spring with basking warmth after one last huge snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 12z NAVGEM is 1"+ of rain for us. Less for Boston which manages to stay drier with most of the rain missing to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 As early as hour 30 you can see the changes on the Euro with regard to the system for tommorrow tracking further West. It's helping to pump up heights to the North of the track and enhance the Western Atlantic ridge even more. Still early but you can already see what looks to be a shift towards a less progressive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 As early as hour 30 you can see the changes on the Euro with regard to the system for tommorrow tracking further West. It's helping to pump up heights to the North of the track and enhance the Western Atlantic ridge even more. Still early but you can already see what looks to be a shift towards a less progressive solution. Tommorow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Tommorow? New England gets dumped on tomorrow night and early Friday as the system which is bringing light snow to us cuts off East of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Why did the runs from a couple of days ago give us a snowstorm from this upcoming storm? What changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The Euro is much more amped up than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 euro is very amped up… hr 84 surface over stl….snowstorm for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like the Euro is heading towards Detroit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Why did the runs from a couple of days ago give us a snowstorm from this upcoming storm? What changed? The Western Atlantic ridge has trended stronger and stronger each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 euro is very amped up… hr 84 surface over stl….snowstorm for Chicago This might end up missing out area completely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Very similar to the GGEM with regards to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 very little front end for nyc south…06z sunday surface and 540 north of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This might end up missing out area completely No, this isn't our typical lakes cutter, it heads East and rides the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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