weatherfreeeeak Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It looks like the consensus is a general 3-6 inches for the metro with 12z guidance so far...3 if we change to rain more quickly and 6 if the snow holds on longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:31 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Check the upper part of map, it is snow accum It's liquid fallen as snow. So 13mm that it has for NYC is .51" of precip. Which is at least 4"-6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z RGEM Total Snowfall Solid snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Remember too the RGEM has had a warm bias on almost every single event this winter on ptype, its usually been 1-3 hours too quick advancing changeover or in the case where there is no advancement to the changeover line its been 20-40 miles too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:35 PM, Snow88 said: 12z RGEM Total Snowfall Solid snowfall NYC bullseye. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 City flips around midnight. Rain ends around 7-8AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I love having the RGEM on our side for a solid snowfall. It may even have a warm bias at this range. Where do I sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 i suggest during the day tomorrow everybody goes outside to enjoy the thump and not look at the radar watching the R/S line race north, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 There is no way in this setup that NYC is getting more snow than say Trenton. The WAA is going to be strongest down there so even though they flip to rain quicker they get the stronger initial dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS is a tick colder and further South through 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Flip to ice and then rain between 03z and 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It looks like on most guidance areas NW of EWR only briefly mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:44 PM, IsentropicLift said: It looks like on most guidance areas NW of EWR only briefly mix. GFS is colder than previous runs. Inland areas west of NYC might not even change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What time does the snow start on most guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z GFS Inland areas do really well on all of the models. The models are now showing 3-6 inches for the coast before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:47 PM, weatherfreeeeak said: What time does the snow start on most guidance? Around this time tomorrow, especially considering that WAA precip almost always arrives earlier than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The trend today so far has been a better thump nyc-west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:38 PM, ag3 said: NYC bullseye. Nice. Bullseye on the RGEM is over the LHV, less QPF but less taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:53 PM, Allsnow said: The trend today so far has been a better thump nyc-west My feeling and I know SnowGoose feels the same is that the snow is going to come in tomorrow afternoon fast and furious. Look at the surge of 60kt+ mid-level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:37 PM, IsentropicLift said: Some local area numbers from 06z NAM KMMU - 7.1" of snow on 0.771" LE and then 0.749" Rain KTTN - 9.2" of snow on 0.649" LE and then 1.101" Rain KSWF - 3.3" of snow on 0.329" LE and then 0.111" Rain KLGA - 5.2" of snow on 0.511" LE and then 0.999" Rain KEWR - 7.0" of snow on 0.652" LE and then 0.918" Rain KACY - 0.00" of snow on 0.00" LE and then 1.39" Rain KPHL - 10.30" of snow on 0.737" LE and then 1.163" Rain 12z NAM comparison KMMU - 3.6" of snow on 0.490" LE and then 0.08" ZR and then 0.52" Rain KTTN - 3.2" of snow on 0.400" LE and then 0.59" Rain KSWF - 2.5" of snow on 0.370" LE and then 0.06" Rain KLGA - 2.7" of snow on 0.310" LE and then 0.64" Rain KEWR - 3.1" of snow on 0.440" LE and then 0.58" Rain KACY - 0.00" of snow on 0.00" LE and then 1.73" Rain KPHL - 4.0" of snow on 0.410" LE and then 0.81" Rain Looks like a MMU JP for the greater NYC area, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:22 PM, Snow88 said: NYC gets 13mm of snow on the RGEM. That map is in mm of liquid equivalent, as snow, so 13 mm LE = 1.3 cm = about 1/2" of LE = ~5" snow at 10:1 ratio. I'd take that in a heartbeat in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow that's a lot of rain after the changeover. Enjoy the thump because it's going to be gone as fast it comes in. The Gfs looked colder aloft but still warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 4:36 PM, SnoSki14 said: Wow that's a lot of rain after the changeover. Enjoy the thump because it's going to be gone as fast it comes in. The Gfs looked colder aloft but still warm at the surface. Sigh...not even close to a 'wash away' situation. 4-8" then maybe an inch or so of compaction is not 'wash away' with temps in mid 30's and light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 4:38 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Sigh...not even close to a 'wash away' situation. 4-8" then maybe an inch or so of compaction is not 'wash away' with temps in mid 30's and light rain That's if we get 4-8". According to that graphic above from the Nam it's 2-4" followed by over a half inch of rain with temps upper 30s/low 40s possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 4:40 PM, SnoSki14 said: That's if we get 4-8". According to that graphic above from the Nam it's 2-4" followed by over a half inch of rain with temps upper 30s/low 40s possibly. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'd imagine the existing snow pack/ might absorb a little bit if the rain but, boy going be a icy icy icy mess next week after all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 4:44 PM, seanick said: Exactly Well if it's more like 4-6" with less than a 0.5" of rain and temps under 40F then the snow would absorb the rain rather than melt away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Honestly, a half inch of rain is not what you want. Yes, it's going to get absorbed into the snowpack and then frozen, so the pot boils even more towards a roof collapse and flooding potential when the heavy rain does eventually come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEM is very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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