tmagan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 8:48 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Were can you access that model? Damn that looks like its really south. I've read that its been doing a good job too. On the vizaweb web site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 00Z RGEM ensemble meteogram for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 8:31 AM, poleshiftnow said: 6z nam is printing out some massive QPF for NJ 850 temps on the border of PA and MD Yea wet run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 6z nam has 9 inch amounts in Warren and Hunterdon counties based off of wxbell snow maps.Ultimately, it's the nam. The fact that it's amped is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow...6z nam would be an epic snow thump before any changeover.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 11:43 AM, Zelocita Weather said: Wow...6z nam would be an epic snow thump before any changeover.... 4.9 inches at KNYC is epic ? http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 12:28 PM, NEG NAO said: 4.9 inches at KNYC is epic ? http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Knyc.txt Tis the winter we're in..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 8:48 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Were can you access that model? Damn that looks like its really south. I've read that its been doing a good job too. that's only through 7pm Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 close to 1 inch QPFor with 850 is below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Mt. Holly doesn't seem enthused by this at all, so maybe they're onto something. They've been right the past few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nope...Mt. Holly doesn't think much of this stystem. Upton is more bullish. Totals were upped by 2 inches last night for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:08 PM, Metasequoia said: Nope...Mt. Holly doesn't think much of this stystem. Upton is more bullish. Totals were upped by 2 inches last night for NYC. How do those maps show Upton being more bullish? They match up almost exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 To really scrutinize those maps... Mt. Holly is a tad more bullish. Ehh, maybe not... They are pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:16 PM, yhbrooklyn said: How do those maps show Upton being more bullish? They match up almost exactly. On second glance you're probably right. Totals were still upped overnight for NYC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 06z GFS was slightly wetter, but not we're it matters.... NWNJ is wetter from last nights 00z but everyone else is about the same in terms of totals snowfall, still a 3-5" type deal as per the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I did my best to crop and fit the jigsaw... I present the Mt. Holly Upton Snow Map. I guess to the southeast, Upton is a tick more bullish, but it's really splitting hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Mt holly like 2-4 along 95 and 3-6 nw.THat's a good forecast right now, if rgem/nam is correct would be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think our terminology on this site gets misinterpreted a lot.. Most models show a general 3-5", Upton and Mt holly calling for 4-6" isn't "bullish" IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:23 PM, yhbrooklyn said: I did my best to crop and fit the jigsaw... I present the Mt. Holly Upton Snow Map. MtHollyUpton.png I guess to the southeast, Upton is a tick more bullish, but it's really splitting hairs. Nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:25 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I think our terminology on this site gets misinterpreted a lot.. Most models show a general 3-5", Upton and Mt holly calling for 4-6" isn't "bullish" IMO From what I see there is a ton of model support for 4-6 nw of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:27 PM, Allsnow said: From what I see there is a ton of model support for 4-6 nw of 95Yea I agree but on average between the areas that are 2-4 and 4-6 and all th areas in between I would say 3-5 is a good averageEither way my point is model concesnsus is there for NWS forcast so my point is their not being bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:25 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I think our terminology on this site gets misinterpreted a lot.. Most models show a general 3-5", Upton and Mt holly calling for 4-6" isn't "bullish" IMO No...I was saying bullish in comparing Upton to Mt. Holly, but As yhbrooklyn noted, there's no difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:27 PM, Allsnow said: From what I see there is a ton of model support for 4-6 nw of 95 Let's see what today's runs produce. Can't trust anything this year until its time for the coin flip.. You know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:29 PM, Metasequoia said: No...I was saying bullish in comparing Upton to Mt. Holly, but As yhbrooklyn noted, there's no difference. Not towards you just a general statement, to me when NWS is being bullish they're calling for a 3-6" above most model concesnsus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:30 PM, Blizzardo said: Let's see what today's runs produce. Can't trust anything this year until its time for the coin flip.. You know.. It's so true. Sometimes within 12 hours of an event you can't trust the models or forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Jma is between .4-.6 for most of nyc South, less North and west as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:31 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not towards you just a general statement, to me when NWS is being bullish they're calling for a 3-6" above most model concesnsus Its not being bullish. Models are junk this year. They are using there brains. It was mentioned earlier I think, maybe by DM. Frozen snowpack so far south, today's cold temps.. The warmup on the models is gonna bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 06 NAVGEM keeps most the heavier precip South of NYC as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:34 PM, Blizzardo said: Its not being bullish. Models are junk this year. They are using there brains. It was mentioned earlier I think, maybe by DM. Frozen snowpack so far south, today's cold temps.. The warmup on the models is gonna bust I def hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:31 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not towards you just a general statement, to me when NWS is being bullish they're calling for a 3-6" above most model concesnsus Agreed...there kind of being sensible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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