SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 10:57 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 54 hrs?? Doesn't the rgem only go out to 48?6z and 18z run up to 54hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 10:57 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 54 hrs?? Doesn't the rgem only go out to 48? 18z goes out to 54h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 10:49 PM, RU848789 said: Favorite movie of last year. Wasn't sure it was a nod to the juju - I also spend a ton of time on the RU football board and it's filled with people who truly, truly believe in jinxs and superstition, so I guess I was being a little oversensitive to it here... You know what will happen here . 1 OP run over the next 48 hours will show a whiff . 1 will Neg tilt and cut and eventually 1 will pop up with a R/S line and guys will slug out the 850`s outside 5 days and it will make for some uneasy reading . I like SAT threat to trend colder in the end . I think its a weak SW with a 1045 leaning on its backside . So there is a chance the cold air in front holds a bit longer and the rain that probably does fall on the coastal plain will be at the end and somewhat minimal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On WXbell it still only goes out to 48, probably why I didn't know... Unless I'm missing something on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 11:00 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: On WXbell it still only goes out to 48, probably why I didn't know... Unless I'm missing something on thereuse this site for rgem that shows up to 54 hours for you. It's a free site but Its pretty goodEdit:rgem=CMC-RDPS http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gefs has about 4 inches of snow for nyc before the possible changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Winter Storm Pandora Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not that I necessarily trust the srefs cause according to them I should be sitting on a 100+" snowpack, but nearly 17 of 22 member are over .75" for this, and quit a few that are between 1.00-1.85". Nyc is 1.84" max qpf 1.00" mean qpf .22" minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:25 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not that I necessarily trust the srefs cause according to them I should be sitting on a 100+" snowpack, but nearly 17 of 22 member are over .75" for this, and quit a few that are between 1.00-1.85". Nyc is 1.84" max qpf 1.00" mean qpf .22" minimum Snow, rain, or mix? DT is not impressed for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:30 AM, Mophstymeo said: Snow, rain, or mix? DT is not impressed for NYC. well if 1.84 were to fall that would most likely mean a much more amped solution, probably resulting in a decent front end thump followed by heavy rain but it's just a guessNo way 1.84 falls frozen or even close to frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:32 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: well if 1.84 were to fall that would most likely mean a much more amped solution, probably resulting in a decent front end thump followed by heavy rain but it's just a guess No way 1.84 falls frozen or even close to frozen Thanks. Hate rain in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:34 AM, Mophstymeo said: Thanks. Hate rain in winter. Don't take my word for it, I'm not a pro, just a best guess.. Snowwgoose or forky might be able to explain better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:35 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Don't take my word for it, I'm not a pro, just a best guess.. Snowwgoose or forky might be able to explain better No worries. Your guess is better than mine. But I know, in this winter at least, not to take any forecast or discussion of a forecast seriously until after the storm has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Likuidsky3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Going call on local media stations. Snow showers Saturday and everything washes away with rain?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:37 AM, Mophstymeo said: No worries. Your guess is better than mine. But I know, in this winter at least, not to take any forecast or discussion of a forecast seriously until after the storm has passed.Srefs members do tend to be over amped in general. The one thing I would say if we get lit up with precipitation is it could also be some members seeing a really strong front end thump. The WAA and IL could really create a strong front end thump. The NAM alluded to this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:35 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Don't take my word for it, I'm not a pro, just a best guess.. Snowwgoose or forky might be able to explain better Usually like Snowgoose mentioned, the front-end on these storms almost always over-performs . Gonna be interesting for sure.. Also I notice that we always start off colder then forecasted..IMO I think Snowgoose is onto something and agree that snow totals could bust on the positive side for folks in NYC and even more so north of there I remember one storm we were foretasted to get around 3-5" and NYC ended up with about 6-8" pretty positive it was a storm very similar in evolution to this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Srefs mean look similar to the 18z runs. 1-3/2-4 type deal then rain. Dca gets a good thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 There is snow on the ground everywhere north of a line from Cape Hatteras, NC across to the southern border of the state of Tennessee. How much warm air can reasonably & plausibly be expected to be advected north given such a circumstance, considering the mid latitude disturbance is not some behemoth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NYC SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 DT has 4+ for DC and 1 inch for the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:57 AM, Snow88 said: DT has 4+ for DC and 1 inch for the northeast Only til 1A on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not that we're gonna take it serious anyway but nams out to hr 18 let's see if any changes occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:00 AM, White Gorilla said: Only til 1A on Sunday By that point, don't we go over to a mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Likuidsky3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 DT has busted a lot lately. No buying his map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:57 AM, Snow88 said: DT has 4+ for DC and 1 inch for the northeastkeep him in the vendor plz...where he belongs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam is noticeable less amped with the inital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Parts of Kentucky that started snow on the 18z run are either all mix or rain this time, same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Major changes for the Midwest on the run, heavy snows on the northern shield not the eastern shield, Ohio is under heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:15 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Major snows for Chicago as well Snow is 100 miles south of Chicago, what r u taking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:17 AM, Allsnow said: Snow is 100 miles south of Chicago, what r u taking about? I meant Ohio Idk why i wrote Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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