PB GFI Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 7:22 PM, RU848789 said: I hope all of you are kidding with the jinx crap, especially on a forum devoted to a scientific topic, where superstition should be completely banished, as the meaningless silliness it is. You mean you missed Silver lining playbook ? You make me sad RU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 7:19 PM, USCG RS said: Good catch. Yes, and the EPO has also been incorrectly forecast. It is a bit more negative than models are forecasting and this should theoretically allow for colder air to push a little further into the eastern US. Combine that with an NAO staying more positive as well as east based and a projected dip in the AO and you have a recipe for this s/w (especially sheared out and weak) to be at least halted in its attempts to cut into the lakes. I know you've been hot on the EPO over the last week or so. Where do you get the current index and what do they forecast it with? I haven't been able to find anything easily decipherable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 7:31 PM, PB GFI said: You mean you missed Silver lining playbook ? You make me sad RU Good movie btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 7:36 PM, JERSEYSNOWROB said: Good movie btw. Jennifer Lawrence was crazier than he was . Anyway my objection to starting a thread is because it`s a 6 day OP run , and there is so much to fine tune for the weekend system . I would expect wild solutions 144 hours out , so why bother . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 7:35 PM, TheManWithNoFace said: I know you've been hot on the EPO over the last week or so. Where do you get the current index and what do they forecast it with? I haven't been able to find anything easily decipherable. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 7:39 PM, PB GFI said: Jennifer Lawrence was crazier than he was . Anyway my objection to starting a thread is because it`s a 6 day OP run , and there is so much to fine tune for the weekend system . I would expect wild solutions 144 hours out , so why bother . Exactly, my main objection was to limit the arguing and tension amongst us, we all want the same thing, no need to fight about for 6 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 7:31 PM, PB GFI said: You mean you missed Silver lining playbook ? You make me sad RU This time the bet can be between Philly and Boston on seasonal snowfall instead of Eagles Vs. Cowboys. We can make it a parlay with who on the forum sees the highest heating bill for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 7:58 PM, bluewave said: This time the bet can be between Philly and Boston on seasonal snowfall instead of Eagles Vs. Cowboys. We can make it a parlay on who on the forum sees the highest heating bill for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 7:58 PM, bluewave said: This time the bet can be between Philly and Boston on seasonal snowfall instead of Eagles Vs. Cowboys. We can make it a parlay with who on the forum sees the highest heating bill for February. Petro in Laurel Hollow is more expensive than NG in Colts Neck for half the house . I lost my parlay regardless . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 not a cutter, 2 separate lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 6:40 PM, IsentropicLift said: Euro has 1-3" per hour rates for about a six hour period. The storm explodes as it reaches SNE. We missed a 12"+ plus storm by about 6 hours. Shadows of 1/26-1/27 2010 with those rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Light snows begin per nam at about 5pm on Saturday. (Virginia hammered) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NWS has increased totals for parts of the LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Subtract totals from first map to get snowfall for next weeks possible storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nam changes anyone South or extreme northern Orange County to all rain by 06z sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I can't see 925mb temps but my guess is that there is a warm layer in there besides the BL which gets to 36F at EWR by 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 love the 27 over me lol hope we actually get the storm and it moves south a bit to get you guys too On 2/19/2015 at 8:42 PM, wkd said: Subtract totals from first map to get snowfall for next weeks possible storm euro2-19-12Z.png euro2-19-12-168.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 8:42 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam changes anyone South or extreme northern Orange County to all rain by 06z sunday not really 850's never go above freezing past central nj this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nam absolutly pours rain 06z sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 8:42 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam changes anyone South or extreme northern Orange County to all rain by 06z sunday Just got NAM'd, 4-8" and colder than prior run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 8:47 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam absolutly pours rain 06z sun What the heck are you looking at, 850 0line never gets past the turnpike...colder run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 8:43 PM, IsentropicLift said: I can't see 925mb temps but my guess is that there is a warm layer in there besides the BL which gets to 36F at EWR by 09z.There has to be a pretty strong warm layer in the mid levels, even most of Orange County goes to all rain early Sunday morning if the nam is to be believed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 precip is long gone just after hour 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 8:48 PM, Zelocita Weather said: What the heck are you looking at, 850 0line never gets past the turnpike...colder run. surface and mid levels besides 850 absolutely torch in NYC and coastal plain...any snow that accumulates gets washed away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Precip ends by about 9z Sunday...most if not all precip is snow/frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 8:48 PM, Zelocita Weather said: What the heck are you looking at, 850 0line never gets past the turnpike...colder run.It's showing all rain Sunday morning even up into Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 8:48 PM, Zelocita Weather said: What the heck are you looking at, 850 0line never gets past the turnpike...colder run. yea,looks snowy to me, 4-7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 8:47 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Just got NAM'd, 4-8" and colder than prior run 925 mb freezing line is in north jersey around morris county not until hour 57, by hour 60 it touches ny nj border but precip is over by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 you cant go by 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is where the NAM starts the flip And 3 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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