Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 2:56 PM, IsentropicLift said: So when the models trend weaker and even further South are going to say that cloudy skies are better than snow as long as no rain is involved? personally I'd be happy with that. I have about 15-18 of snowpack, frozen ground, a big rainstorm would be a nightmare around here with flooded basements, streets etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 2:56 PM, IsentropicLift said: This isn't going to be the final outcome, don't you see the writing on the wall? Supression City. I don't know if this will be suppressed there's still a good WAR in place to provide resistance for this.Well I guess we'll continue to set snow pack record days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 2:58 PM, SnoSki14 said: I don't know if this will be suppressed there's still a good WAR in place to provide resistance for this. This is the year where the models find new and creative ways to shaft Northern NJ. Every system this year has trended drier and weaker as it got closer, and I have no reason to believe that this won't happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 2:59 PM, SomeWeatherGeek said: my man yanks I think is just pissed because he's not getting no heavy downpours. Time will come for you man, in July! I'm tired of being fringed on every single event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:02 PM, IsentropicLift said: I'm tired of being fringed on every single event.I can't believe some are taking what the NAM just showed as the definitive 100% outcome, gospel. By 0z tonight, the solution from it will be 180 degrees different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:15 PM, snowman19 said: I can't believe some are taking what the NAM just showed as the definitive 100% outcome, gospel. By 0z tonight, the solution from it will be 180 degrees differentnot this time as the GFS is really not far from the same solution. Also every model trended that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:15 PM, snowman19 said: I can't believe some are taking what the NAM just showed as the definitive 100% outcome, gospel. By 0z tonight, the solution from it will be 180 degrees different uh? Every model has trended this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The RGEM is definitely north of the NAM at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 2:47 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Wow, NAM is a very nice run. 3-6" maybe a little frizzle at the end, then the cold air rushed back in. 0 plain rain ;-) Not true there is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:17 PM, Snow88 said: uh? Every model has trended this way.Please don't tell me you think this last run of the NAM is the final outcome. The NAM is the most erratic model out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:18 PM, rossi said: Not true there is rain. Maybe for C/S NJ, but north of there none or minimal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Goose, what would the RGEM translate too? Decent front ender? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z Hires Nam at 60 hours On 2/19/2015 at 3:19 PM, snowman19 said: Please don't tell me you think this last run of the NAM is the final outcome. The NAM is the most erratic model out there It's not only the Nam. Please look at the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:24 PM, IsentropicLift said: Talk about a front end thump, that much moisture quickly going into that cold. Snow in SC/NC per the RGEM...CAD City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:25 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Talk about a front end thump, that much moisture quickly going into that cold. Snow in SC/NC per the RGEM...CAD City. I think we will def get a front end thump. The question is what happens right after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:25 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Talk about a front end thump, that much moisture quickly going into that cold. Snow in SC/NC per the RGEM...CAD City. Look at that CAD signature , Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:30 PM, IsentropicLift said: 01.png Can we lock that in now? But seriously...this could keep trending further south and weaker or possibly bounce back north/stronger a bit. Let's see how things go through the rest of today and early tomorrow. Hopefully, we'll have a decent handle on this event by the end of the 12z suite tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:32 PM, Doorman said: huggers tumblr_lxck0i6hVk1r9f9ogo1_500.gif DM, you are a great poster. When you first joined, I thought you were a meteorologist. You and PB and Jelly should work together. Dynamic Duo. On 2/19/2015 at 3:34 PM, SomeWeatherGeek said: the guy is bugging, when we're supposed to get no snow he says there'll be plenty when the models actually show snow this guy says rain! Come on there's no doubt this is trending towards a snowier solution. I think by the time the warm air advection off the boundary comes in, most of the heavy precipitation is over and the boundary shafts south! 4k nam looks great! Things are trending in our favor but still a little time to go with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS is coming in south and colder so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 12z GFS is more amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 1:45 PM, IsentropicLift said: Even the 06z GFS which people were saying was a less amped up solution still had a lot of rain for the area and very little snow. Cutters gonna cut, just have to accept it. The Euro ensembles were all cutters. One day ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:47 PM, Snow88 said: GFS is coming in south and colder so far The southeast ridge is stronger and the energy is digging a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:47 PM, rsteff said: One day ago This is still a cutter, the only difference is that the system gets sheared out before it has a chance to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:47 PM, IsentropicLift said: The southeast ridge is stronger and the energy is digging a bit more. Further south than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Well by 60hrs the GFS is certainly digging more than 06z but the ridge appears to be sliding East quicker. So a little give and take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:48 PM, Snow88 said: Further south than 6z So far this run is warmer than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It warms up by 66 . Further south and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Over to plain rain from I-80 south by 06z Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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