Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 11:08 PM, snowman19 said: GEFS? Weak sauce on the mean...nice front end. Has the follow up snow event also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 11:15 PM, Allsnow said: Weak sauce on the mean...nice front end. Has the follow up snow event also. Colder than op. Really weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 11:22 PM, Snow88 said: Colder than op. Really weak. Excellent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 11:15 PM, Allsnow said: Weak sauce on the mean...nice front end. Has the follow up snow event also.Lmao, once again for the 100th time this winter we don't have model consensus now that the 18z GFS has come out. Once again GFS vs ggem euro and ukie. Just unreal and 3 days away from the event. Pathetic is an understatement with the models this winter, just awful, worst I have ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Its likely just 18Z shenanigans, the NavGEM of all models is a full blown cutter, leads me to believe the GFS is likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 11:45 PM, snowman19 said: Lmao, once again for the 100th time this winter we don't have model consensus now that the 18z GFS has come out. Once again GFS vs ggem euro and ukie. Just unreal and 3 days away from the event. Pathetic is an understatement with the models this winter, just awful, worst I have ever seenLast year featured some very late and dramatic north shifts on many storms (some within 36 hours) but it was positive changes mainly and no one was complaining. People don't realize how much a minute change in observations can be extrapolated to huge changes 2-3 days down the line. That we even have semi reliable models in the 3-5 day range is extraordinary, people are expecting too much and too many people without the ability of subjective thinking see them. (I'm not talking about the Blizzard, which was obviously a huge bust within 24 hours for 2 models who shall remain nameless) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 12:28 AM, mob1 said: Last year featured some very late and dramatic north shifts on many storms (some within 36 hours) but it was positive changes mainly and no one was complaining. People don't realize how much a minute change in observations can be extrapolated to huge changes 2-3 days down the line. That we even have semi reliable models in the 3-5 day range is extraordinary, people are expecting too much and too many people without the ability of subjective thinking see them. (I'm not talking about the Blizzard, which was obviously a huge bust within 24 hours for 2 models who shall remain nameless)A lot of the changes inside 72 hrs last year was due to northern stream disturbances in poorly sampled areas. Probably much of the same this year.There should be no excuses for huge busts inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 12:16 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Its likely just 18Z shenanigans, the NavGEM of all models is a full blown cutter, leads me to believe the GFS is likely wrong.Lol when the nogaps is a cutter, something is wrong, it usually plows the low into Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 21z SREF mean likes 2-4" Saturday night, especially over NJ and PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Quick burst on NAM and over to heavy rain with lots more to come at EOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 2:59 AM, IsentropicLift said: Quick burst on NAM and over to heavy rain with lots more to come at EORHow far west is it cutting the surface low now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The NAM is pretty flat at 84 hours and very sloppy on the low development, thats a good start for anyone who was anti GGEM/Euro/UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:07 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM is pretty flat at 84 hours and very sloppy on the low development, thats a good start for anyone who was anti GGEM/Euro/UKMETIt's plenty wet, good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:09 AM, IsentropicLift said: It's plenty wet, good enough for me. Based on the NAM you'd think the GFS would at least hold and the GGEM and others are going to come in flatter, but the NAM has violated its 84 hour amped up rule a few times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:10 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Based on the NAM you'd think the GFS would at least hold and the GGEM and others are going to come in flatter, but the NAM has violated its 84 hour amped up rule a few times this winter.The amped up NAM rule I find only applies to Miller A's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:07 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM is pretty flat at 84 hours and very sloppy on the low development, thats a good start for anyone who was anti GGEM/Euro/UKMET Yeah, barely 1012 with the low...looked very GFS like to me. Almost looks like a glorified cold front when you loop the images and temps are 35 or less for most at least through the end of the run. With such a weak surface reflection, hard to see how the cold air gets kicked out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 2:59 AM, IsentropicLift said: Quick burst on NAM and over to heavy rain with lots more to come at EORthats not really a quick burst. It's heavy snow to ice than a rainstorm... 3-5 of snow before any change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:12 AM, Brian5671 said: Yeah, barely 1012 with the low...looked very GFS like to me. Almost looks like a glorified cold front when you loop the images and temps are 35 or less for most at least through the end of the run.That NAM run would have dumped inches of rain had it continued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:19 AM, IsentropicLift said: That NAM run would have dumped inches of rain had it continued. Any reasoning to why the Nam has a low in Central Mississippi at hr 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:19 AM, IsentropicLift said: That NAM run would have dumped inches of rain had it continued. Perhaps, but you have to chop NAM's QPF by 25-50% to get the real solution. Meh, it's the NAM at 84 hrs...it could have a 975 MB low on the 6z....time for the globals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:22 AM, UnionWeatherGuy said: Any reasoning to why the Nam has a low in Central Mississippi at hr 84?Cause it's the nam lol. At 6z it will have it somewhere completely different, another erratic model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:19 AM, IsentropicLift said: That NAM run would have dumped inches of rain had it continued. Its hard to say, it may have just slid the entire thing ENE and basically just clipped the area with a line of rain with the FROPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:27 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Its hard to say, it may have just slid the entire thing ENE and basically just clipped the area with a line of rain with the FROPAWell no point in arguing over the 84hr NAM, I just don't agree that it's in the GFS camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Gfs continues to look weak in the early stages of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Lol...this is going to turn into a swfe event on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's just shearing out the first storm now...you don't get that mid level warmth push...very nice front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 1016 goes west of us..very nice front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:57 AM, Allsnow said: 1016 goes west of us..very nice front end dump. How much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:58 AM, rossi said: How much? 2-4 SurfAce temps stay in the upper 30's sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 3:52 AM, Allsnow said: Lol...this is going to turn into a swfe event on the gfs swfe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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