Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Even the usually over-wet CRAS is relatively dry. NAM is REALLY on it's own here with it's uber wet depiction. Expecting 2-4" in Warminster with some sleet mixing. Don't think the rain line makes it here but we shall see. Thicknesses and 850s certainly support frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Radar returns looks quite healthy out in the Ohio Valley, so I guess we'll have to wait and see how that relates to here once we get into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 heading to the slopes, radar looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 As often occurs, Middlesex County appears to have contradictions, especially in the northern half of the county. NWS snowfall map shows 4-6" for my location (and 3-4" for the southern half of the county), point-and-click shows 2-6" and the WWAdvisory says 1-3". And just to my west in Somerset County, their WWAdvisory says 2-5", while to my north and east the Upton WWA says 1-5". Sigh - they really need to try to minimize these discrepancies, especially between the maps and the advisories, which are what most people look at. Here are the maps, which I haven't seen posted yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wxsim for NW Chesco with 6z GFS/NAM data Snow by 1pm temp 19.6 S+ from 4pm-10pm (5.7" snow) Mixing with sleet by 11pm with 6.6" of snow ZR sleet mix after midnight ending - looks like 7" - 8" of snow/IP before mostly ZR precip ends by 5am with temps rising to 27.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM playing tricks again, or the real deal? 12z paints out over 1" QPF across most of the state. most of it below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM playing tricks again, or the real deal? 12z paints out over 1" QPF across most of the state. most of it below freezing. I just saw that, I don't no what to think, coup or bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Warnings expanded Southeastward to include I-95 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ1011 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015...A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THENORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DEZ001-MDZ012-PAZ070-071-104-106-212315-/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.150221T1700Z-150222T0600Z//O.EXB.KPHI.WS.W.0005.150221T1700Z-150222T0600Z/NEW CASTLE-KENT MD-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...CHESTERTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN1011 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY. THEWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...BRIEFLY CHANGING TO SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Any RGEM update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Actually just saw precip type maps for RGEM , it gets heavy snow into the city much faster than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Actually just saw precip type maps for RGEM , it gets heavy snow into the city much faster than 00z Much easier to get moisture in here with a SE wind... More QPF than expected wouldn't surprise me. Good call by mt holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Recent update frm Mt Holly: WE ARE EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING A SLICE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT 12Z SOUNDINGS VS MODEL PROJECTIONS, IF ANYTHING MODELING ERRORS ARE TOO WARM. THE NAM VERIFIED THE BEST WITH THE QPF PROJECTIONS THRU 12Z AND ITS WETTEST, DRIEST ECMWF VERIFIED THE POOREST. LATEST NAM/RAP/HRRR ARE EITHER SNOWIER OR SLOWER TO BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. SO IN THAT NEW WARNING SLICE, IF WE ARE TOO HEAVY WITH THE SNOW, CHANCES ARE WE MAY BE TOO LIGHT ON THE ICE. THIS ALSO BRINGS THE GRADIENT UNCERTAINTY TO THE I295 CORRIDOR IN SWRN NJ. WE WILL SEE WHAT ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS SHOW BEFORE DECIDING IF A FURTHER SEWD EXPANSION IS NEEDED THERE TOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I don't like the idea they may be too light on the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Come on NAM pull the coup we need an over achiever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Glad to see in this storm NAM verifying best and Euro poorest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Come on NAM pull the coup we need an over achiever Yeah man, I mean yeah NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yeah man, I mean yeah NAM. See what happens when the NAM gets downgraded ... someone said that the NAM was just plain silly not sure who that was though just remember reading it somewhere ... any hew some flakes are flying around in gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Recent update frm Mt Holly: WE ARE EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING A SLICE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT 12Z SOUNDINGS VS MODEL PROJECTIONS, IF ANYTHING MODELING ERRORS ARE TOO WARM. THE NAM VERIFIED THE BEST WITH THE QPF PROJECTIONS THRU 12Z AND ITS WETTEST, DRIEST ECMWF VERIFIED THE POOREST. LATEST NAM/RAP/HRRR ARE EITHER SNOWIER OR SLOWER TO BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. SO IN THAT NEW WARNING SLICE, IF WE ARE TOO HEAVY WITH THE SNOW, CHANCES ARE WE MAY BE TOO LIGHT ON THE ICE. THIS ALSO BRINGS THE GRADIENT UNCERTAINTY TO THE I295 CORRIDOR IN SWRN NJ. WE WILL SEE WHAT ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS SHOW BEFORE DECIDING IF A FURTHER SEWD EXPANSION IS NEEDED THERE TOO. and GFS goes way warm at 12z. go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 and GFS goes way warm at 12z. go figure. Huh? Most places 850 and surface similar to 6Z if not a tad colder.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Glad to see in this storm NAM verifying best and Euro poorest This event hasn't started/ended yet and we don't know the outcome but the friggin Euro has been horrible this winter. NAM has been doing quite well so the "it's the NAM" thought process should go away....at least for now. Moving in fast and it appears to be a "wall"...no light stuff for a while. Once it starts, it picks up quickly. 23.5F.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Huh? Most places 850 and surface similar to 6Z if not a tad colder.... I was just looking for the warmth and don't see any significant changes from 6z either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 This event hasn't started/ended yet and we don't know the outcome but the friggin Euro has been horrible this winter. NAM has been doing quite well so the "it's the NAM" thought process should go away....at least for now. Moving in fast and it appears to be a "wall"...no light stuff for a while. Once it starts, it picks up quickly. 23.5F.... When these warm air advecting thump events happen this is exactly what you need and is always unpredictable. Appears to be going in the right direction this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM is not alone, it has support from the RGEM, HRRR and RAP. Given the consensus from all short-range models, I feel pretty confident in warning criteria for SE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM vs. RGEM... reminder: 2.5mm=0.10", 5.0mm=0.20", 7.5mm=0.30", 10mm=0.40", 15mm=0.60", 20mm=0.80"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Huh? Most places 850 and surface similar to 6Z if not a tad colder.... I was comparing 10m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 When these warm air advecting thump events happen this is exactly what you need and is always unpredictable. Appears to be going in the right direction this time. On my doorstep...we'll see what happens. One thing I noticed while out this morning were the winds a tad more gusty than I expected. Not howling but some nice gust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I was comparing 10m temps. Yes 10m and surface temps a bit warmer, but I don't buy it. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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