JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM looks decent for Eastern PA. Looks like 6 to 8" of snow in northern Chester/Montgomery/Bucks counties and 8 to 10" of snow in the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Keep in mind that different snowmaps use different algorithms and you can't really compare an IWM map for the GFS to the EuroWx map for the Euro. They both attempt to factor in ratios but the EuroWx maps eliminate accumulation when surface is above 32. I hate the WxBell maps because they take everything at 10:1 including sleet but at least there you can do apples to apples across models. In my opinion Euro isn't actually all that much of an outlier. We have a reasonable agreement among the models that snow comes in midday tomorrow and comes in hard. At some point there is a changeover. The exact details we probably won't know until they're happening I previously e-mailed Eurowx and asked them if their algorithm allows snow accumulation when surface temps were above freezing and got this response:: "Yes it does, however it reduces the amounts due to melting as its falling through the atmosphere. At about 40 degrees it doesn't let much accumulate at all." Also I don't know why the title at the top of the map cuts off sometimes but the pertinent info is also at the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Pocono watch just flashed on my alert screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 WSWatch posted...4-6" here then up to a tenth of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yup, I just saw the Winter Storm Watch go up for my part of Montgomery County (4 to 6 inches of snow, followed by up to 1/10th inch of ice). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Usually when the storms come up from the south hugging the coast, the "warmer" ocean temps would stream in. But the timing might depend on whether the big high yields fast enough. I took it as that since this isn't a coastal hugger (it's sort of (still) a weak apps runner), the winds aloft will be from the south and there won't be the cold dry air advecting in from the north/northeast like we had on Monday, so there shouldn't be a lot of virga. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 New snowmap up... Question to NWS, New Castle Co looks like 3" in the south and up to 6" in the north.. Is that WSW or WWA criteria..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yea..It just got real. Watch in my area for 5-7 inches baby! Snow Baby! Heavy, Heavy Snow Baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yup, I just saw the Winter Storm Watch go up for my part of Montgomery County (4 to 6 inches of snow, followed by up to 1/10th inch of ice). Same here (and for Philly as well), same amounts, etc. All right then - Mt. Holly's on board :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 I like the map, since I am in the 6 to 8" of snow area. But I think the wording of the Winter Storm Watch is very good at this time (only 4 to 6" of snow with some ice possible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Keep in mind that different snowmaps use different algorithms and you can't really compare an IWM map for the GFS to the EuroWx map for the Euro. They both attempt to factor in ratios but the EuroWx maps eliminate accumulation when surface is above 32. I hate the WxBell maps because they take everything at 10:1 including sleet but at least there you can do apples to apples across models. In my opinion Euro isn't actually all that much of an outlier. We have a reasonable agreement among the models that snow comes in midday tomorrow and comes in hard. At some point there is a changeover. The exact details we probably won't know until they're happeningNo the euro is more amped than the others hence why there is less snow. I totally expect it to catch on to the others as it has all year now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 it will be nice to have a good snowfall during the day, on a weekend...kids and i can sled all afternoon, we can get a fire going afterward, and i can liberally apply scotch/bourbon/ale throughout relatively guilt-free... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 it will be nice to have a good snowfall during the day, on a weekend...kids and i can sled all afternoon, we can get a fire going afterward, and i can liberally apply scotch/bourbon/ale throughout relatively guilt-free... Sounds good. I'll be happy to just to sit back and watch the snow fall...while enjoying a nice hot beverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Quick question. Why does the regular NWS snowmap show 4-6 inches in north central NJ and the maximum map show 5 inches. Wouldn't it logically show 6 inches. I know it's knit picking but just wondered how the max was calculated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sounds good. I'll be happy to just to sit back and watch the snow fall...while enjoying a nice hot beverage. You've earned it - had a scare for a day or so with this thread, but looks like a good chance it will work out, Threadmeister Jr. (Ray is Threadmeister Sr.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Quick question. Why does the regular NWS snowmap show 4-6 inches in north central NJ and the maximum map show 5 inches. Wouldn't it logically show 6 inches. I know it's knit picking but just wondered how the max was calculated. Looking at the time stamps on the maps, the only one that's 3:32 pm or later is the one posted here. The others are from 12:57 pm so they probably haven't been updated. (maybe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 it will be nice to have a good snowfall during the day, on a weekend...kids and i can sled all afternoon, we can get a fire going afterward, and i can liberally apply scotch/bourbon/ale throughout relatively guilt-free... looks like more O/T for me on Saturday/Sunday.... So our residents don't have to do this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Fwiw the UKMET appears to have trended towards the majority with it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 it will be nice to have a good snowfall during the day, on a weekend...kids and i can sled all afternoon, we can get a fire going afterward, and i can liberally apply scotch/bourbon/ale throughout relatively guilt-free... So drunk sledding/playing w/fire with the kids...sounds fun. May as well bring the shotgun out and show the children how to shoot empty beer cans.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So drunk sledding/playing w/fire with the kids...sounds fun. May as well bring the shotgun out and show the children how to shoot empty beer cans.... A .22 would be more sporting, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So drunk sledding/playing w/fire with the kids...sounds fun. May as well bring the shotgun out and show the children how to shoot empty beer cans.... Make sure you wait till is about .10 of inch of ice hardens the snow so you can really get the full monty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 looks like more O/T for me on Saturday/Sunday.... This is what I use: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 all good suggestions, thanks all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So drunk sledding/playing w/fire with the kids...sounds fun. May as well bring the shotgun out and show the children how to shoot empty beer cans.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Fireworks and explosives are great in the snow. Ah the good old days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If you know my personality I was semi serious...the drinking and sledding/fire is a given but I would probably only use a BB gun with the beer cans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Quick question. Why does the regular NWS snowmap show 4-6 inches in north central NJ and the maximum map show 5 inches. Wouldn't it logically show 6 inches. I know it's knit picking but just wondered how the max was calculated. The snow probabilistic maps have now been updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Always a good sign when the board crashes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wxsim with 18z GFS/NAM data for NW Chester County Pa Similar story as before snow arrive by 1pm temp 16.3 Heavy Snow between 4 and 10pm with 7.3" of snow by 10pm Heavy Snow mixed with IP by 1am with 10.5" of snow/sleet then IP to ZR mix before ending by 7am Temp rises to 27.6 by 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 This 'should' be the biggest storm of the year so far for many of us. At least has the potential to be anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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