JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Love the snow map from Mt. Holly at this juncture. As Andy stated, 12z runs will be important to see if things stay at least status quo (if not get better for us snow hounds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Latest Wxsim with GFS/NAM 6z data has ramped up total precip to now 1.65" including between 10" to 12" of front end thump snow and then to ZR before ending......this will no doubt change significantly closer to reality as we move thru the next couple model runs today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah, I am thinking 1.5"+ of total QPF is too high. Probably will end up closer to 1" total QPF...of which hopefully at least half is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z NAM holding serve. Snow I95 north and west through 36hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Between 36 and 39 changes to rain phily and immediate NW suburbs. ABE still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think if the globals are similar to the nam at 12Z we can be pretty confident of the path of the precip. Looks like in any case we are all going to see snow starting tomorrow afternoon. Where the rain/snow line sets up we won't know until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z NAM looks like a decent front end thump for the Lansdale/Doylestown (and north/west) area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah, the 12z NAM is about as great of a setup as I could hope for (nice thump of snow, followed by not-a-complete-washout). Let's hope other 12z guidance is at least close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 nam is starting to be consistent. gfs starts in 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah, the 12z NAM is about as great of a setup as I could hope for (nice thump of snow, followed by not-a-complete-washout). Let's hope other 12z guidance is at least close to it. We'll find out shortly what the 12z RGEM shows, the 6z was pretty much in line with the 6z GFS and both 12z NAMs. The 12z high resolution NAM looked especially nice :-). Here's hoping! eta: The 12z RGEM looks a little south of 6z, can only see out to 30 hours, but looks good to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 rgem is nice hit for burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 rgem is nice hit for burbs It cut back the qpf in SEPA a bit, but still good. Impressive overall consistency between many of the models since late yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 gfs, snow at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 gfs 33hr, snow picking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 36hr snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 39hr mixing issues, phl to ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 42 hr flip to rain up to abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12hrs of snow before issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So the 0z euro dropped the ball? Figured as much what a tin can model now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Watch the start time tomorrow, the earlier the start time the higher the snow totals will be. GFS is 4-7" in SEPA least in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Winter storm watches going up in afternoon package for portions of the area - western Chesco, upper Bucks & Montco into LV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Based on the GFS run.. I would say eastern PA looking really good for significant snowfall. At least a 4 to 8 inch snowfall, say for Lancaster, Southeast PA up to Allentown. Back my way in South Jersey, especially for Salem, Gloucester, Camden and Burlington, 2 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM and GFS basically hold serve as well...I'm guessing if RGEM held, so will GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12hrs of snow before issues Hurricane's maps have the snow starting at 4pm and rain by 8pm that would be a total buzzkill Personally feeling like it will be snow from 2pm to 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hurricane's maps have the snow starting at 4pm and rain by 8pm that would be a total buzzkill Personally feeling like it will be snow from 2pm to 9pm The dew points right now are about -14F and we're due for more cold/dry overnight. It may take time for the atmosphere to moisten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hurricane's maps have the snow starting at 4pm and rain by 8pm that would be a total buzzkill Personally feeling like it will be snow from 2pm to 9pm Hurricane did say he thought the models were a little slow with the onset of precip -- he thinks it maybe snowing as early as 1pm in the Philly area. He also thinks he may up his accumulations a little in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm thinking snow gets into our area tomorrow between 1 PM and 3 PM (SW to NE) and it snows pretty nicely for at least 6 hours before any mixing/changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm thinking snow gets into our area tomorrow between 1 PM and 3 PM (SW to NE) and it snows pretty nicely for at least 6 hours before any mixing/changeover. As modeled now I think that's a solid call. Both the nam and gfs show snow knocking on the door at 1pm and for many of these type events the snow actually arrives earlier than forcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 euro snow by 1pm 39hr, 32 line abe, 0 line south of philly precip moving out by 12z sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The dew points right now are about -14F and we're due for more cold/dry overnight. It may take time for the atmosphere to moisten. I saw something this morning, I thought it was in a Mt. Holly AFD, about thinking the atmosphere should moisten up quickly tomorrow due to the southerly flow. I looked for it just now but couldn't find it. Maybe it was my imagination? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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