RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I know two different people that are moving this weekend, and i still don't know what advice to give them thanks to this winters variability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 00z RGEM has the 10mm (.4 inch) line pass through Philadelphia through 48 hours on the black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well, let's see how the 00z models go. We've definitely seen a trend toward a colder and even snowier solution. I think a lot of folks are hoping to cash in as we get toward the end of this month. Still, we all like to see that one big winter storm. Just a lot of thread the needle deals thanks to the NAO and AO not being in the negative most of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 nam likes quakertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hmmm. Reading GFS is even more interesting. Darn it, come on WXBell with those images.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 gfs flips to rain by 54hr up through abe, nice front hit of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS is in line with the NAM with snow potential before the flip, and i think there won't be much left when that happens from past experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hoo boy...can we just lock that 0z snow map in now? I'm hoping things still look this way in 24 hours, but alas that may be too much to hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anyone know why Tropical Tidbits and NCEP seem to have different printouts? The 0.50" QPF shield is much larger on NCEP then TT's for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hoo boy...can we just lock that 0z snow map in now? I'm hoping things still look this way in 24 hours, but alas that may be too much to hope for. I echo your sentiments here sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anyone know why Tropical Tidbits and NCEP seem to have different printouts? The 0.50" QPF shield is much larger on NCEP then TT's for the GFS. I've noticed that before. I would think NCEP should have the correct maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEM agrees 6-9" in SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow… Lots of agreement with the 0Z models And only 36 hours out from the event! And it doesn't appear that the local weather outlets are buying into it!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anyone know why Tropical Tidbits and NCEP seem to have different printouts? The 0.50" QPF shield is much larger on NCEP then TT's for the GFS. I'm wondering if it has something to do with the resolution? I think the higher resolution output is available, but not sure if NCEP uses it in their maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow… Lots of agreement with the 0Z models And only 36 hours out from the event! And it doesn't appear that the local weather outlets are buying into it!? I'm cautiously optimistic at this point....and definitely encouraged by the model trends! Can't really blame the weather outlets for holding back - let's see how things look tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't have the run but sounds like the old dr no is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Dr No a total screw job. 1" northern Bucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No way the model that has shown 50" snow this month and been wrong every time will be right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That's "Dr. BL#W" at his winter of 2014/15 best!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 FWIW, both the NAM and GFS have pushed up the snow amounts for KABE on their 06Z runs. NAM, ever the spastic child, up from .7" to 1" LE and GFS from .5" to .6" equivalent. Still can't shake the taint before it ends, but maybe it's a sign of things to come today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 hope we cash in on front end dump before any flip. 12z runs are huge today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z runs are huge today If I could change my display name, that would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If I could change my display name, that would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Updated snowfall forecast i put out this morning. Enjoy. I am concerned about the NAM/RGEM thump happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Updated snowfall forecast i put out this morning. Enjoy. I am concerned about the NAM/RGEM thump happening. After the past few winters, this gradient looks, well, backwards. Still concerned about threading the needle (aren't we always?) between organized enough for a good thump and too organized with a stronger southerly flow, but this looks reasonable given the latest guidance. 12Z runs will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 6z runs are beautiful, warning level snows for ABE Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Don't take this the wrong way but I found this typo may be prophetic from the AFD - THIS FORECAST TAKES BOTH OF THESE OUTCOMES INTO ACCOUNT WITH SOME REAMING UNCERTAINTY. Updated snowfall forecast i put out this morning. Enjoy. I am concerned about the NAM/RGEM thump happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Woops lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Don't take this the wrong way but I found this typo may be prophetic from the AFD - THIS FORECAST TAKES BOTH OF THESE OUTCOMES INTO ACCOUNT WITH SOME REAMING UNCERTAINTY. Lol, nice catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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